The Hanging Slidepiece

Is Jamie Moyer a Hall of Famer?

2010-06-28T13:11:00.000-07:00

After attending the Blue Jays- Phillies game with my wife on Friday night, we listened to a local sports talk station on the way home. The Ruben Frank, the host of this particular show on 610 WIP, posed the question: is Jamie Moyer a Hall of Famer? Frank said yes. I say no.

Jamie Moyer has had an exceptional career by any measure. 2010 marks the 24th season that Moyer has appeared in the majors (he spent all of 1992 in the minors), and has racked up over 600 starts and 4000 innings in his time. He has 267 wins, and on Sunday became the all-time record holder for home runs allowed, which really just means he tops a list of fly ball pitchers who lasted a while. But he's not a Hall of Famer.

To me, a Hall of Famer is someone who a) passes the smell test b) displays greatness and dominance over a substantial period and c) is a premier player at their position. By my definition, which is the only one that matters here because this is my blog, a Hall of Fame career is NOT made by one who racks up impressive statistical achievements by playing a long time. Moyer fails on both definitions.

Stacked up against his contemporaries, Moyer ranks only average. He has received Cy Young votes in only three seasons, never finishing better than fourth, and has been named to only one All-Star team. He has allowed over 100 more hits than innings pitched and registers barely over five strikeouts per nine innings. His career ERA is 4.22, and no pitcher with an ERA abover 4.00 has ever been voted into the HoF.

The arguments for Moyer focus mainly on his win total and his uniqueness. While I'm not a devotee of sabermetrics, I do agree with the premise that win totals are overrated for a pitcher, given that there are too many extraneous factors involved. Given some context, Moyer has been on multiple 100-win clubs in Seattle, and has been a part of back-to-back pennant winners in Philadelphia. I think there is value in wins for a pitcher, but there are many other stats that show a pitchers value and ability better, in my opinion. As for the uniqueness of a 47-year old pitcher, that's all well and good, but Eddie Gaedel isn't in the Hall of Fame.

Defenders will point out that Moyer has played in an offensive era, which is true. However, his career ERA+ is only 105. The career ERA+ of Curt Schilling, a contemporary likely to be in a heated HoF debate was 128.

Finally, let's compare Moyer to Bert Blyleven, the current HoF hot-button candidate. Moyer will likely finish close to Blyleven's total career start number, but will trail by several hundred innings, around 50 shutouts, over 200 complete games (200!), well over 1000 strikeouts, an actual ERA figure of about a run and an ERA+ that will lag 118-105. And Blyleven has found it tricky to get into Cooperstown's hallowed Halls.

Even if Moyer were to somehow reach 300 wins, I'm still not convinced he's a Hall of Famer. The old-guard milestones have fallen by the wayside over the last decade, and not just because of steroids. Jim Thome has 570 home runs, has never had even a hint of steroid suspicion surround him, and he's no slam dunk for the Hall.

In the end, whether Moyer's last season comes when he's 47 or 57, he should be quite proud of the career he's put together. It's very, very good. But it's not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

The Braves Aren't THAT Good... Are They?

2010-06-22T13:02:00.000-07:00

Prior to the 2010 season, no one could have predicted that in late June the Braves would be 14 games over .500 and leading the National League East by 2.5 games over the Mets and a seemingly impossible 5.5 games over Philadelphia. Many expected the Braves to be a contender in 2010, but are they THAT good?

No. They aren't.

At the end of action on May 14th, the Braves were 17-18 and in last place in the NL East, 4.5 games behind Philadelphia. Since then, they have been helped by a few factors that have nothing at all to do with their own team, including...

-The schedule. Between May 14th and June 20th the Braves are 25-10, good for a .714 winning percentage (for reference, the Yankees were 103-59 last year, which is a .635 winning percentage). In that time, the Braves have played 16 games against the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Royals, against whom they went 12-4. Against major league (ouch) clubs over the same stretch, Atlanta was 13-6, which is good, but not off the charts.

and

-The Phillies. In not trying to take anything away from Atlanta, one has to acknowledge that the Braves' making up 10 games on the Phillies in five weeks has as much to do with one team playing horrifically as it does one team playing great. Over the same May 14- June 20th time period, the Phils are 14-19, and have struggled mightily to score. The Phils also played 16 games against San Diego, Boston, Minnesota and the Yankees while the Braves were off killing the Royals. Jimmy Rollins, undeniably the engine that makes the Phils go, appeared in exactly five of the 33 games since May 14th.

Looking over the Braves' production in 2010, you have to wonder how they are 42-28. They have two starting pitchers (Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson) who are above average, one guy hitting over .300 (Martin Prado, .339) and one real power threat in Troy Glaus (14 HR, 55 RBI). Most of their everyday lineup is average to middling, and Jason Hayward has come back to earth since a hot start and is completely neutralized by left-handed pitching (.230, three home runs, 25 strikeouts in 74 at-bats). I also think Martin Prado is more Junior Spivey (made his only All-Star team in 2002 at age 27) than Davey Lopes (became a regular at 28 and started in the majors for a decade). Omar Infante and Eric Hinske, the bench players with the most at-bats, are playing way over their heads too (hitting 48 and 55 points higher than their career averages, respectively).

The real strength of Atlanta's team this year has been its bullpen, which boasts some gaudy numbers from the likes of Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito and Jonny Venters. But how long will those numbers hold up from the 38-year Wagner and 40-year old Saito, not to mention that Venters hasn't made his second loop around the league yet.

The Braves can't run away and hide in any race because they're offense and starting pitching aren't good enough. Their most productive offensive players are playing well over their heads right now, and you can't trust any starting pitcher they have not named Hanson or Hudson. They're also relying too heavily on a couple of players (mainly Glaus and Saito) with too checkered an injury history to not expect a breakdown.

I think the Braves are a good team, I really do. I think they'll be in a race for the playoffs, and could make some noise if they get in. But I think that if they do win the NL East, it will have more to do with what the Phillies don't do than what the actually Braves do.

Around the League...

- A.J. Burnett got ripped for the second start in a row on Monday night in Arizona. Burnett has shown yet again that he will always remain what he is, which is a maddening pitcher who is great at times, and horrible at others.

- Ubaldo Jimenez is pretty good. But if you read Baseball Prospectus, he's no better than he's ever been, and is probably getting a little bit lucky. I think he probably is getting a little lucky with how things have been going, but I also think you can make some of your own luck when you throw 99 with hard downward movement.

- Jimmy Rollins is due to be activated from the DL (again) today. Here's hoping he's healthy and effective the rest of the season, as he's only played 11 games thus far in 2010.

The Time For Replay Has Arrived

2010-06-03T12:06:00.000-07:00

As you've no doubt heard and seen by now, Armando Galarraga threw the 21st perfect game in major league history last night- except that umpire Jim Joyce incorrectly ruled that two outs in the ninth inning Jason Donald beat the throw to first base.

To the naked eye, the play looked close, but replays clearly confirmed that Donald was out and the game should have been over.

To their eternal credit, Galaraga and Joyce have both responded with more class and grace than you could ever hope for of two men in their respective positions. Joyce addressed the media after the game, taking full responsibility for his mistake ("It was the biggest call of my career and I kicked the ---- out of it," Joyce said), and tearfully apologized to Galarraga in the immediate aftermath. Galarraga didn't make a big scene, didn't scream and yell, didn't rip Joyce after the game, he simply took it all in stride and recorded the final, 28th out of his perfect game. It's hard to imagine a similar outcome would've unfolded if, say, Kevin Brown and Joe West were the parties involved.

As soon as I saw the play unfold I knew the replay debate would be renewed. The truth is now undeniable.

An expanded replay system needs to be in place for use in the major leagues. ASAP.

I'm all for the human element of the game, and with the pace of the game a concern, this needs to be done on a (very) limited basis. What form it would take, I don't know. Maybe each team could get one challenge a game, or one a week, or umpires would have discretion in the ninth inning (similar to the final two minutes of a football game). But in this day and age, the technology is already in place to show what the correct call should be for every play. And if the technology is in place and is not being utilized, all it will do is make the umpires look bad.

The contrast is especially striking for me, as I spent most of Wednesday night watching game three of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Chicago Blackhawks and my Philadelphia Flyers. (Just because I love baseball doesn't mean the Phillies are my only squad).

While the NHL is clearly the fourth of four majors on several fronts, it is tops in its use of technology. It's use is limited (only on goals), centralized (in the main NHL office in Toronto) and definitive. Twice during the game there was question as to whether or not a goal was scored by the Flyers. Once, replay showed the puck had completely crossed the goal line, and the Flyers were awarded a goal. The second time, in overtime no less, there was another play that appeared as if the puck crossed the goal line for the Flyers. The replay showed it did not, and no goal was awarded. The Flyers won a few minutes later on a goal with no controversy.

Ultimately, the NHL got both close calls correct, which is the ultimate goal of both officiating and the use of replay as an aid.

If you don't believe me, just ask Jim Joyce.

Philadelphia's Offense

2010-06-01T13:10:00.000-07:00

Stinks.

Ok, that's not very insightful. Why does it stink right now? Throughout baseball, and the Delaware Valley in particular, many theories abound regarding the Phils' recent struggles. I really don't think it's that complicated, however. On Opening Day, the Phils lineup was this...

1) Jimmy Rollins- SS
2) Placido Polanco- 3B
3) Chase Utley- 2B
4) Ryan Howard- 1B
5) Jayson Werth- RF
6) Raul Ibanez- LF
7) Shane Victorino- CF
8) Carlos Ruiz- C
9) Pitcher

As of right now, Rollins has played only 12 games, Polanco is out with an elbow issue, and Ruiz is playing but has been struggling mightily at the plate since he left a game with a leg injury at Colorado in early May. What that leaves you with is far too many at-bats for Wilson Valdez and Juan Castro, capable backups, but backups. Added to the mix is the collective disappearance of Utley, Howard and Werth, and you get a collective struggle to sustain offense. Other thoughts at least marginally related include...

- No one is noticing because the team overall is bad, but Ibanez is around .250 now after a dreadful start. 2009's sprint from the gate was the aberration with him, not his normal pattern.

- Jayson Werth looks more and more like Robin than Batman as the struggle moves along. He'll get paid handsomely this offseason, but he's not in the class of Utley and Howard.

- Greg Dobbs looks like his best days may be behind him. His bat is slow and he's not hitting the ball hard or driving it at all.

- Ben Francisco may be a better player when he gets more at-bats. He's been awful as a pinch-hitter, though.

- As good as Juan Castro looked early, expecting him to hit .300 for two months is too much to ask.

However, moving to the bright side...

- The pitching collectively has been really good. Jamie Moyer only looks 40 on the mound these days, not 47.

- Kyle Kendrick has had some solid outings, but has to be more aggresive. He looked a little scared to throw the ball over the plate Friday.

- Joe Blanton has been much better than his stats indicate.

- Brad Lidge has a good looking appearance in Atlanta Monday afternoon.

- The Phils have something in Antonio Bastardo. His fastball has all kinds of life, and his slide has come a long way since his first big league appearance around this time last year. I don't think he'd be much fun to hit off of lefthanded.

- Cole Hamels continues to get better with each outing. His fastball velocity is up, his change up is diving, and he's keeping himself together on the mound, which he didn't do in 2009.

- Roy Halladay is still really, really good. Sometimes he's even perfect.

Back From Two Weeks Off For No Particular Reason

2010-05-24T11:48:00.000-07:00

- Roy Oswalt is now evidently on the market, saying that he's willing to move to a contender. What I can't figure out is where he could go. Oswalt holds a full no-trade clause, so he can veto any deal. He's also owed $16 million next year. So where could he go? The Yankees and Red Sox are apparently not interested, which means everyone else has a chance. The Phillies didn't pay Cliff Lee $9 million this year, so with Jayson Werth up after this year and Oswalt making $15 mil this year and $16 mil in '11, you have to think they're out. The Mets have the money, but they stink and I can't imagine Oswalt would ever approve a deal there. Seattle has money, but also stinks, and has to be looking to unload Cliff Lee before too long, so they're out. Tampa can afford half a year of Lee, but they can't afford a year and a half of Oswalt. I don't think Houston wants to trade him in the division, and Atlanta needs sticks more than arms.
Texas? Why not? But to me, the wild cards are Minnesota and Washington. The Twins have new ballpark money and young, tradeable pieces, and Oswalt (paired with Stephen Strasburg?) could be enough to push the Nats into a real race this season or next.

- Wilson Valdez is back with the Phillies, thanks to Jimmy Rollins having to return to the DL with a recurrance of the calf problem that kept him out for close to a month. The Phils did fine without Jimmy once, but it remains to be seen how much longer they can sustain good baseball without its engine.

- Of course, that supposes the team is playing well now. Losing to Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Dice-K and Tim Wakefield in one week at home is not a good thing.

- Read an interesting article in Sports Illustrated about Nolan Ryan's philosophy on developing pitchers and stretching them out. Of course, if pitchers start getting hurt, Ryan will get flogged in the baseball world, and if the Ranger pitchers do well, everyone will copy him.

-The Mets tried hard to give away a game to the Yankees on Sunday night. The Jerry Manuel/ Omar Minaya watch has to stay in effect. Losing a home series to the Phils this week won't help their cause.

- Pat Burrell got DFA'd by the Rays. I'm not sure he catches on anywhere before August 1st.

- Carlos Zambrano has never been the same since that no-hitter in Milwaukee in late 2008.

- Carlos Marmol has a great arm, but he's got no idea at all where the ball is going.

- Lou Piniella must love having Marmol as his closer.

- Not.

Wilson Valdez

2010-05-11T11:51:00.000-07:00

How bad has Wilson Valdez been for the Phillies in 2010? Well, in 33 at-bats, he has accounted for 38 outs. He is hitting .152, with seven strikeouts, seven total bases, zero walks and five GDPs. His OPS+ is -5. Which brings to mind a phrase I never thought a Phillies fan would utter in 2010... when does Juan Castro get back?

What I've Seen Lateley

2010-05-10T12:11:00.000-07:00

- Good for Dallas Braden, hurling the 19th perfect game in Major League history against the Rays on Mother's Day. Now he can be known for something other than yelling at A-Rod to stay off his mound.

- How have the Rays been perfect gamed twice in two seasons? They're too good offensively for that.

- One great sign that Cole Hamels is returning to his 2008 form is that he has been getting a good number of swing and misses at his fastball. The fastball has had good late explosion and ride, not the 'bang me' fastballs he was throwing in 2009.

- We'll find out more about Kyle Kendrick's recent renaissance tonight when he faces the Rockies in Coors Field. Can he succeed in Colorado against a lefty laden lineup including Todd Helton, Ian Stewart, and Carlos Gonzalez? We'll find out.

- Jamie Moyer. Are you serious? The Braves offense stinks, but still. Complete game shutout? At 47?

- Derek Lowe is struggling again after a below-average 2009.

- The more he gets up to hit, the more money Jayson Werth is making for himself. He's probably already in Jason Bay territory, with Matt Holliday in his sights.

- Are you telling me that with all the money they have, the best the Yankees and Red Sox could come up with on Sunday night included Marcus Thames and Darnell McDonald?

- Paging Mr. Werth...

- A.J. Burnett has to be better than that against the Red Sox. It doesn't matter how hard you throw or how much the other team is struggling early in a season, you have to do better than straight fastballs up in the zone to major league hitters. Otherwise, you get torched. Just ask A.J.

- The Mariners fired hitting coach Alan Cockrell and replaced him with Alonzo Powell over the weekend. To borrow a phrase from another sport of prominence in the spring time, you can be the greatest jockey in the world, but you're not going to win anything if you've got a horse that can't run. The Mariner offense is a horse that can't run.

- Is anyone in the AL West any good? I don't buy the Rangers, and I won't until they show that they won't fold down the stretch the way they have each of the last 159 years.

- I can't imagine this is what Bobby Cox had in mind for his farewell tour.

- Olive Perez walked seven in 3.1 bad innings for the Mets Sunday. Welcome home, OPP.

- With a one-run lead in the ninth Sunday, Brian Wilson gave up a leadoff double to Jason Bay. He then blew away David Wright, Ike Davis and Jeff Francoeur in succession to end the game. Just awesome.

Mid-Week Edition

2010-05-06T11:49:00.000-07:00

- Suddenly the Phillies pitching problems don't look nearly as dire as they did a week ago. Joe Blanton returned on Monday and threw well in a loss to St. Louis, Cole Hamels has had more good outings than bad this year, Kyle Kendrick threw seven shutout innings on Wednesday night, J.C. Romero is rounding back into form, Brad Lidge looked outstanding in his Tuesday outing, and Jose Contreras has been dominant in short relief thus far, reaching 98 on the radar gun with all kinds of movement.

- J.A. Happ and Ryan Madson are still expected to be out for quite awhile, however

- Albert Pujols doesn't look comfortable against Phillies pitching. He's been a little eager, and has even been fooled several times. He almost took a 96 mph fastball from Danys Baez in the chops on Wednesday night too, which can't help anyone feel more comfortable.

- The Cardinals have got something with this David Freese

- Turns out Barry Zito still is a good pitcher. Again, if the Giants ever score, look out.

- The Padres are still in first place in the NL West, but I doubt a team hitting .245 can hold that spot.

- Cliff Lee already is talking about how he'll be a free agent after this season. He's the crown jewel of the free agent market, and he knows it.

- Even free agent jewels can't give up five runs and 10 hits in eight innings and get paid like they envision, however

- Does Tampa ever lose?

- Does Baltimore ever win?

- Can Tampa afford two months of Cliff Lee if the Mariners fall out of the race? It says here they'll do it, whether they can afford it or not.

- Good for Milton Bradley, finally realizing that he needs help with the issues that have followed him from team to team for several years.

- Tough week for baseball, as longtime Tigers announcer Ernie Harwell and Phillies Hall of Fame pitcher Robin Roberts passed away within a few days of one another. Two elegant men who were great embassadors for baseball.

- Congrats to Chris Heisey, my friend Phil's old college roommate. Heisey made his major league debut for the Reds on Monday night against the Mets, going 0-5 but making a nice catch in right field. Welcome to the show.

The Week We Just Had

2010-05-03T12:53:00.000-07:00

- The Mets were feeling pretty good on Friday night, riding an eight-game winning streak and having just beaten the Phillies to extend their NL East lead to a game and a half. Then the Phils unleashed their new toy, Roy Halladay, to the tune of 10-0 on Saturday, and torched Met ace Johan Santana for a nine run fourth inning on Sunday to take the weekend series.

- So far, Santana proclaiming himself the best pitcher in the NL East has been a perfect microcosm for the difference between the teams. The Met talks about it, the Phillie is about it. This weekend Halladay tossed a complete game shutout, while Santana gave up 10 earned in 3.2 innings.

- Santana's fastball isn't good enough to make his change up the devastating pitch it has been for awhile. There just isn't enough seperation in velocity between the two pitches. Also, as Joe Morgan pointed out (hate to point out decent Joe Morgan points) during the telecast Sunday, without a good breaking ball there is no reason for lefthanded hitters to be uncomfortable against him.

- Mike Pelfrey, welcome back to Earth.

- Either Jose Reyes wasn't trying, or he's turned into Alfonso Soriano in the three hole. He's far too aggressive and swinging early in the count too much right now.

- Joe Blanton returns to the mound tonight and it can't come soon enough for the Phillies. Kyle Kendrick just doesn't look like a major league pitcher, Jamie Moyer is giving up too many big innings, and J.A. Happ is still probably down for awhile.

- I can't kill Ryan Madson for breaking his toe kicking a chair in frustration. He knows he hasn't been getting the job done. But, he also knows how important he is to the Phils out of the pen.

- He's had detractors, myself included, but Robinson Cano is turning into a force for the Yankees. It seems like everytime I look up he's hitting another big homer for the Yankees.

- Javier Vasquez still can't handle being a Yankee. Could the Braves actually have gotten the better end of that deal?

- A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Teixiera, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Yuniel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Danys Baez, Ben Sheets, Aaron Harang and Edwin Jackson stink. Right now anyway.

- I think Ramirez is hurt, Jones is old, Lee is overweight, and Escobar is lazy.

- How many good young pitchers are out there right now? I can't remember a time with so many exciting young hurlers. Nevermind Tim Lincecum, who's obvious. How bout Wade Davis, Zach Greinke, Ubaldo Jimenez, C.J. Wilson and Ricky Romero, among others. All fun to watch.

- The Red Sox can't let this continue too much further. I don't care how bad things are going, if you're a team with legitimate aspirations (as the Red Sox always are), you can't get swept by the Orioles.

- My take? They're being too kind to David Ortiz, who's been an albatross and an automatic out in a weak lineup. That and Jonathan Papelbon has been too beatable.

- Great move by the Phils signing up Ryan Howard long term. Rob Neyer may not think so, but he had Corey Koskie as a better player in the 2000s than Howard. I digress. I'm more interested to see what happens to the rest of the 1b free agent class of 2011-12. If I'm Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, I want everyone else to sign but me, thus driving up my value. I think both Fielder and Gonzalez leave their current teams.

- With Tampa, Minnesota and San Diego all leading their divisions, maybe it really isn't all about spending the most money, I really hope all three can keep it up all year, but I think San Diego is a bit of a mirage.

- Tampa and Minnesota are real though. As long as Joe Mauer's heel is not a long-term issue.

Sunday Notes

2010-04-25T11:54:00.000-07:00

- The Phillies are scuffling at the plate, clearly missing Jimmy Rollins at the top of the order. Shane Victorino is hitting only .213 with a .250 OBP, and Raul Ibanez has struggled mightily, his Saturday night homer not withstanding. Add in Ryan Howard's recent struggles, and it's no wonder that the Phils have scored more than four runs only once in the last week, a stark departure from their normal output.

- Most observers have felt all along that the Phillies are the best team in the National League in 2010, and that only injuries could keep them from a third straight World Series trip. Well, today is April 25th and they've already had Jimmy Rollins, Juan Castro, Jayson Werth, Placido Polanco, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge miss a game or been removed from a game because of an injury.

- Lidge and Blanton both made rehab appearances at AA Reading on Friday, while Romero pitched for the Phils but was quickly removed after not looking right. The bullpen cavalry is on the way, however.

- Baseball Tonight had some alarming statistics to share this afternoon. One was that the Braves are hitting 6-74 (.087) in the leadoff hole. I think at this point I would give the kid a shot in that spot. He doesn't do you anygood hitting fifth if he's got no one to drive in.

- Another great Baseball Tonight stat was that AL third basemen are hitting .248 through Saturday, while their NL counterparts are hitting .290. Chief among the culprits here is the Angels' Brandon Wood, who's hitting a lusty .102 through Saturday. Wood has been a great prospect for what seems like five years, but I don't care how great his glove is, you can't have a .102 hitter at a premium offensive position.

- Wood's NL match is Aramis Ramirez of the Cubs, he of the .134 batting average. Alfonso Soriano may be drawing all the grief, but he's hitting .300. Ramirez looks over-matched on even modest fastballs.

- Brian Matusz has two wins this season. The Orioles have two wins this season. Think about that.

- Let's all keep our pants on about Ike Davis. I'll wait until he's seen half of the league once (nevermind the whole league twice) to make a judgement.

- However, if he is good, what do the Mets do with Daniel Murhpy when he gets back?

- How long until the Pirates trade Garrett Jones for five cents on the dollar? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm betting the 2011 trade deadline.

- Every time I've seen the Angels this year, which is several times now, they've looked like crap.

- If you're wondering why the White Sox have such a bad record with their pitching staff, look at the batting averages of their everyday nine. Look at Andruw Jones, who's had a nice early resurgence, then hide any women and children before sorting through the rest of the muck and mire.

- So the Padres have MLB's first eight-game winning streak in 2010. Who didn't see that one coming? Besides everyone.

- If the Giants can score at all, they'll be tough.

- Joe Nathan Shmoe Nathan. The Twins have the best record in baseball, and Jon Rauch has six saves. Also, Justin Morneau's OBP is over .500. What a great set of players they have, and it's fun to watch them all fit together.

News and Notes

2010-04-19T13:00:00.000-07:00

- If Cole Hamels pitches like he did on Sunday against the Marlins, the Phillies have nothing to worry about with their young lefty. Hamels allowed two earned in eight innings plus and took the loss as the Phils offense stayed cold for a second straight day. However, he had good life to his fastball, mixed in his trademark change, and even threw some very good curveballs, freezing Hanley Ramirez for strike three with one of them.

- While the top part of the Phils rotation is rounding into form, the bottom half is getting scary in a hurry. Kyle Kendrick hasn't been able to do anything right since the season started, Jamie Moyer gave up five runs in the first inning on Saturday, and now J.A. Happ may miss some time with a forearm issue. Joe Blanton is making a rehab start at Lakewood soon, and he can't get back soon enough.

- The Mets and Cardinals really did play 20 innings on Saturday, and Tony LaRussa really did pull Matt Holliday from the game when the Cardinals had not scored a run yet. Alber Pujols saw exactly no pitches to hit after that, and the Mets finally won when they were able to push across two runs against Joe Mather. Yes, that Joe Mather. Joe Posnanski does a good job outlining LaRussa's work in his latest column.

- Tom Verducci asks if this is the end for Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano and David Ortiz. Yes, yes, and yes. The easiest call for the team is Burrell, as he doesn't have a contract after this year and doesn't have any emotional currency with Tampa, other than beating them in the World Series with Philadelphia. Ortiz looks finished, and Soriano is turning into an unproductive hitting, defensive liability who is owed a lot of money.

- Soriano and Carlos Zambrano are two long term deals the Cubs have completed of recent vintage that don't look great right now.

- Must see TV this week? Jason Heyward taking his hacks against Roy Halladay in Atlanta on Thursday night.

- Only 74 more "Raise up the Jolly Roger" announcements to a .500 season for the Pirates

- The Rays are back. It's early. But they're at least back-ish.

- The Red Sox... well, some of these all-defense, no-hit contracts better start hitting something soon

- Good for Ubaldo Jimenez, no-hitting Atlanta for the Rockies first no-no. The Mets still haven't had one, and next year is their 50th season.

- Nelson Cruz is a legit power threat. Is is possible that Texas is really more Colorado than Colorado? Which is to say, they'll always hit, but never pitch, as was feared about the Rockies for the first 10-12 years of their existence.

- Thanks for coming, Houston and Baltimore. Better luck in 2011.

Settling Into the Season... What Have We Learned?

2010-04-13T13:28:00.000-07:00

Everyone has played at home at least once except the Yankees, so now's the time when you start to see how the season is shaking out. Gone are the days of .750 batting averages and an 800 RBI pace. Here's what we've learned (or confirmed) so far...

- Roy Halladay in the National League has been as advertised. Two games, 16 innings, 13 hits, 17 strikeouts, one earned run.

- I'm really trying not to sound like a homer here, but when you play the Phillies your starter better throw seven good innings, or you're going to have a lot of problems. The lineup is too tough on good starters anyway, and they are going to down right abuse middle relievers.

- Ahh, but all is not perfect in Phillie land. Cole Hamels is still scuffling a bit to find his form, and Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins left Monday's home opener with injuries. Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Joe Blanton already started the year on the DL with an assortment of maladies.

- So far so good with Ryan Madson in the closer's spot.

- Jose Contreras still has great stuff. All 17 of his pitches.

- Placido Polanco appears to be a perfect fit in the two spot for the Phils. Shane Victorino has had a rougher go moving to number seven, hitting only .161 in the early-going.

-The Phils offense will be especially tough to stop if Jimmy Rollins keeps the plate discipline he's shown early in the year. And if his MRI scheduled for today has good news.

- Troy Glaus doesn't look great with a bat or a glove in his hand.

- Mike Gonzalez blew two saves by the end of the day Friday. Sheesh.

- Curtis Granderson has hit some long home runs so far, but he still can't hit lefthanded pitching. The Yankees will miss Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui more than most people realize this year.

- Joba Chamberlain's biggest problem is that he's just not that good. We don't need to analyze his psyche as a starter or as a reliever or anything else. He's just not that good. That's it.

- Scott Rolen looks rejuvenated so far. Maybe he's finally healthy.

- Tim Lincecum is just fun to watch pitch.

- Who's that hitting .407 with five home runs in seven games? Albert Pujols. He's a decent player.

- Yawn. In other news, sun to rise in east tomorrow.

- The Dodgers losing two of three to start the season in Pittsburgh can't be a great first step.

- I read predictions, apparently from real humans, that have the Mets winning the NL East. This year. After six games, Gary Matthews is hitting .143, Alex Cora .200 (which is better than Luis Castillo), Rod Barajas .238 and Mike Jacobs .133. Oliver Perez has an ERA north of a touchdown, and Mike Pelfrey has an ERA north of a touchdown WITH the extra point. I know it's only six games, but let me know how those Mets in the playoff predictions are working out for you in September.

- The Astros stink. Their lineup has about three legitimate everyday players in it right now. I know Lance Berkman is out, but it's a brutal run outside of Michael Bourn, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. If you're a pitcher and you let Lee or Pence beat you, you're a dope.

- I'm not a fan of umpires injecting themselves in a story, and I'm not a fan of Joe West at all, but he's right about the Red Sox and the Yankees wasting too much time. Tom Verducci is also right that it's not the length, but the pace of the games that is the real problem. I'm all for calling an automatic ball or strike on a player taking too long. I'm also all for an umpire telling Jorge Posada "You won't go out to the mound again if you know what's good for you" and then calling pitches right down the middle balls if he fails to oblige. Come on, seriously, Posada went to the mound eight times in one inning in last year's playoffs? That's time wasting at best, bush league at worst.

Opening Day 2010- Rearview Mirror Edition

2010-04-06T12:53:00.000-07:00

Is there anything better on the sports calendar than Opening Day? To me, it's a lot like the first two days of the NCAA College Basketball tournament, where noon onward there are games going the rest of the day and night all across North America. And now, a look at the 2010 edition, with retrospective lenses of course...

- I hardly recognized Jorge Posada on Sunday night, what with him actually behind the plate between pitches.

- Is that a smile we see from Roy Halladay (picture 14)? Amazing what some run support will do for you. I think this guy is going to work just fine.

-Welcome to the big show, Jason Heyward. But let's not get carried away just yet. This slideshow contains some very good players, but also some guys who immediately stunk thereafter. But it was a neat thing to see Heyward go yard in his first AB. The closest thing to this that I've seen was when I sat in the 700 level at the Vet and watched Chase Utley hit a grand slam off of Aaron Cook for his first career hit, April 24, 2003.

- Billy Wagner looked really good in his inning for the Braves. He threw 97 with some hop and mixed in a few dirty sliders.

- Albert Pujols is on pace for 324 home runs, and Placido Polanco for 972 RBI. I love early season projecting.

- Great Opening Day for Halladay, Heyward, Tim Lincecum, Pujols, Polanco

- Carlos Zambrano? Not so much. Not so much for Josh Johnson either.

- Lost in all the good signs for the Braves- Heyward, Wagner, scoring a ton of runs- is the fact that coming off a bad year, Derek Lowe stunk again.

- David Wright can hit the ball out of the Mets' new park after all. Or, he did on Monday.

- If you hate the Yankees, and who doesn't besides Yankee fans, it was really tough watching Johnny Damon drive in the winning run for Detroit and Hideki Matsui drive in the winning run for the Angels. Tell me you don't miss those guys after Nick Johnson spends 45 days on the DL and Brett Gardner and Randy Wynn are hitting a combined .228.

- Developing Story Line- Middle relief stinks... everybody's.

- If you're keeping score at home, that's only 80 more wins for the Pirates to get off the worst schnied in history.

Fearless NL East Predictions

2010-04-05T00:37:00.000-07:00

Happy Opening Day to everyone out there in blog land. Having completed the positional tour of the NL East, I'll now offer my take on things you can expect to see as the season takes shape. Or things you can expect not to see, depending on your view of my prognosticating ability...

Offense
Highest batting average- Hanley Ramirez
Most home runs- Ryan Howard
Most RBI- Howard
Most runs scored- Jimmy Rollins
Most stolen bases- Rollins
Most strikeouts, lefthander- Howard
Most strikeouts, righthander- Dan Uggla
Comeback year- Chipper Jones
Best overall offensive player- Chase Utley (combining average, OBP, HR, RBI, steals, runs scored)
Worst overall offensive player- Willie Harris
Breakout performance- Josh Willingham

Pitching
Most wins- Roy Halladay
Most saves- Francisco Rodriguez
Most strikeouts- Johan Santana
Lowest ERA- Halladay
Highest ERA- Oliver Perez
Comeback year- Cole Hamels
Breakout performance- Tommy Hanson

Defense
Gold Glove winners- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Ryan Zimmerman
Iron Gloves- Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla
Hardest to steal on- Ivan Rodriguez
Easiest to steal on- anyone in a Mets uniform

Overall
Newcomer with the biggest impact- Roy Halladay
Loss with the biggest impact- Javier Vasquez
Most important return from injury- Brad Lidge
Rookie with the most impact- Stephen Strasburg
Final year with current team- Dan Uggla, Jayson Werth

Team
Most runs scored- Phillies
Fewest runs scored- Mets
Fewest runs allowed- Braves
Most runs allowed- Nationals
Most home runs- Phillies
Fewest home runs- Mets
Most stolen bases- Phillies
Fewest stolen bases- Nationals
Best defense- Phillies
Worst defense- Marlins
Best bullpen- They will all be adventures

Predicted order of finish
1) Phillies
2) Braves
3) Marlins
4) Mets
5) Nationals

Pitchers in the NL East

2010-04-04T18:12:00.000-07:00

As we take to the mound to review pitching staff's in the East, let me explain a bit about what I'm previewing and why. I'll consider a staff as a whole, namely the first four starters and the closer. The reason I won't go further than that is that every team in baseball needs more than five starters over the course of the year, and pretty much everyone's fifth starter stinks. I'll also include each team's closer in the mix, because he is just as important as a starter, if not more so. For the rest of the bullpen, performance is so volatile from one year to the next in middle and short relief that it's often not even worth analyzing. And like starting pitchers, many innings will be throw in relief by guys that are not on the roster. Also like fifth starters, a lot of middle relievers stink. With out further ado...

Atlanta Braves- Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Billy Wagner (closer)

If you ask many pundits who has the best pitching staff in the NL East, the Braves will be a popular answer. I like elements of the Braves' rotation, but I can't say I'm sold on all of it. Derek Lowe will get the Opening Day nod, and as such is the de facto number one. However, his 2009 season was bad, as he allowed the most hits in the National League, posted a 4.67 ERA and a WHIP over 1.5. How he rebounds will go a long way in determining the overall effectiveness of the staff. Jurrjens is coming into his own as a very good Major League pitcher, a solid number two, but probably not an ace. Hanson is the real deal, and whether in title or not, he is the ace of the Braves. His progression, like Lowe's return, will determine a large portion of the Braves' success in '10. Hudson made only seven starts in 2009 in returning from injury, and once again remains a question. He's very good when he's healthy, but he's 34 now and hasn't pitched a full season since 2007. Like Hudson, Billy Wagner made only a few appearances in 2009 after missing a year, and he would have to be considered a question mark too. Having only a modest second pitch, Wagner has made his living on upper upper 90s fastballs, and if the movement and/or velocity isn't there, Wagner could be in trouble. While Wagner is a good gamble, the Braves have effectively added one reliable late inning piece (Wagner), but lost two in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The Braves also lost Javier Vasquez for pretty much nothing that will help them now, and the sum of these transactions leaves them weaker in 2010 than they were in 2009.

Bottom Line: A lot of questions regarding health and effectiveness. Could be best in the division, or could fall apart. Lost too much from 2009 to definitively put them in the top spot in the NL East.

Florida Marlins- Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Leo Nunez (closer)

The Marlins boast perhaps the game's preeminent young power pitcher in Josh Johnson, a 26-year old horse the Marlins wisely have locked up for the long-term. Johnson is a younger Roy Halladay type pitcher, a big, strong, hard throwing guy who looks to go deep in each game and dominate opponents. Nolasco, Sanchez and Volstad are all young power arms who are looking to rebound from injury, ineffectiveness, or both. On any given night any of those three can shut it down, or can implode. Nunez had 26 saves in '09, but also had an ERA of 4.06, and gave up 13 home runs in 68.2 innings. All of which makes Nunez a lot like the rest of the staff.

Bottom Line: The Marlins feature Josh Johnson and a bunch of guys that might be great, and might stink, given any different game.

New York Mets- Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Francisco Rodriguez (closer)

Let's be real and real succinct about this. Santana is one of the best pitcher's in baseball, and the rest of the starting staff stinks. Thanks for coming. K-Rod is a good closer, probably the most reliable in the division, but wasn't all that great in '09. His stuff has been declining each of the past few years, and I'm not saying he's not good, but I am saying he's not worth what his contract calls for.

Bottom Line: Santana needs some help from the other starters. Starters not named Santana and middle relief are terrifying.

Philadelphia Phillies- Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Brad Lidge (closer)

The Phillies, in the aftermath of losing the World Series to the Yankees, in essence traded one year of Cliff Lee for four years of Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay who was dominating in the best offensive division in baseball. Roy Halladay who completed nine games each of the last two years in the American League. Halladay's numbers have the chance to be astronomical in the lighter hitting National League. While Halladay is expected to be great, and Joe Blanton will keep you in every game, questions surround the rest of the staff. Will J.A. Happ be able to maintain his level of success in his second full year in the league? Probably not quite as good, but he'll be good enough for the Phils. Will Cole Hamels rebound from a horrid 2009? Yes. After admitting he did pretty much nothing to get ready for the '09 season, Hamels was invisible this off-season, which is a good thing. By all accounts his velocity and command are far ahead of any point he reached in 2009. And let's not forget, he was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series in 2008. If he regains 2008 form, the Phillies could run away and hide in the division and have quite a setup in playoff series. The biggest question, however, is Lidge. If he's 2008 Lidge, the Phils could win 105 games. If he's 2009 Lidge, he won't keep the closer's job too long. He was almost certainly pitching hurt in '09, and if he comes back healthy and effective, the Phillies might well have the best overall staff in the division.

Bottom Line: Health already an issue with Lidge, Blanton and J.C. Romero starting the season on the DL. How Lidge and Hamels bounce back are keys in lineup after the incomparable Halladay.

Washington Nationals- John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Craig Stammen, Garrett Mock, Matt Capps (closer)

Thankfully for the Nationals and their fans, the Nats are unlikely to finish 2010 with the same rotation they begin the season with. Lannan and Marquis are effective big league caliber starters, Stammen and Mock, eh. Capps can be a good closer, but might be more suited to be a setup man on a good team. The real story comes when Chien-Ming Wang comes off the DL. Ok, that will be helpful, but the real real story happens when Stephen Strasburg is recalled to the big club, probably in May or early June. The uber-ace of the future can lend instant credibility to a franchise that sorely needs it.

Bottom Line: How far down the pegs the team is when Strasburg comes up is the only thing to keep an eye on. The team can hit, but their pitching staff is not up to snuff to that of Major League contenders right now.

Pitching Wrap-Up

Best staff- Atlanta or Philadelphia, depending on how the questions shake out
Worst staff- Washington
Best starter- Roy Halladay
Best reliever- Francisco Rodriguez today. Brad Lidge when he's right.
Biggest Rebound- Cole Hamels
Biggest Anticipated Debut- Stephen Strasburg
Best Fastball- Josh Johnson
Best Change Up- Santana
Best Breaking Ball- Lidge
Underrated- Jair Jurrjens
Overrated- Anibal Sanchez
Just Plain Rated- Joe Blanton
Ascending- Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Johnson, Stephen Strasburg
Descending- Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriguez
Trainwreck- Oliver Perez
Best in Five Years- Johnson

NL East Right Fielders

2010-04-02T13:45:00.000-07:00

Rounding out the everyday positions, we move finally to right field...

Atlanta Braves- Jason Heyward

If not for Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward would be the most talked about rookie heading into 2010. The 20-year old rightfielder is thought to be the classic five-tool prospect, with the ability to hit for average, hit for power, run, field and throw above the major league norm. 2010 is only the fourth season of professional baseball for Heyward after being selected in the first round by the Braves out of high school in Georgia in June of 2007. Hayward hit .323 with 17 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 99 games at three different minor league levels in '09, and he looks to continue his progression playing full-time for the Braves in '10. As good as he may be today, and might be tomorrow, he will still hit several bumps in the road, particularly as more teams see film on him and see him for a second or third time. That being said, Heyward is expected to be the next great outfielder in the National League, and 2010 could well prove to be his coming out party.

Offense- 3... got to show me something against Roy Halladay and Johan Santana, not just spring training fodder who will be in high A in less than a month
Defense- 4... arm strength and speed don't slump

Florida Marlins- Cody Ross

Like members even of his own team, Ross has found a home with the Marlins after spending the early part of his career as a bit of a baseball vagabond. Ross, the ever so rare right handed hitting left handed thrower, hit .270 with 24 home runs in 2009, his second playing almost every day. He fits in nicely with the scrappy young Marlins, but is a bit too much like other members of the team (Dan Uggla in particular) in his propensity to swing early, swing often, strike out, and not display much speed. Ross is probably better suited to play left field than right, and as such is a below average right fielder.

Offense- 3.5... good average and power numbers, but has no speed and strikes out way too much
Defense- 2... below average

New York Mets- Jeff Francoeur

Perhaps no one in baseball needed a change of scenery more than Jeff Francoeur by the time the 2009 season rolled around. Growing up in Georgia, gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated under a title of "The Natural", followed by serious struggles that led him to a .239 hitting 2008 and a trip back to AA. Francoeur responded by hitting 61 points higher with the Mets than he did with the Braves. Whether or not he can sustain the momentum gained playing a full-year in an often anemic Met offense in a large ballpark remains to be seen. Francoeur has always been a very good outfielder, with good range and one of the best outfield throwing arms in the majors.

Offense- 2.5... not convinced he's over his struggles just year... I'd say trending upward though
Defense- 4.5... the only thing that would keep him from leading the league in outfield assists is runners and coaches wary of testing him

Philadelphia Phillies- Jayson Werth

Werth enters 2010 off of a career-year in which he hit .268 with 36 home runs, 99 RBI and stole 20 bases while making his first All-Star game. Werth will be counted upon again to put up numbers like this as the sold right handed power threat in the Phillies' lineup. Werth can drive the ball to all fields, and runs effortlessly with his abnormally long strides. A free agent to be, Werth figures to be motivated throughout the year to put up big numbers and cash in from the Yankees or Red Sox, particularly with the Phillies having to worry about extensions for Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins within the next few years, and phenom Dominic Brown waiting in the wings.

Offense- 4... average is a little low, but worst OBP with Philadelphia was .363 in 08... gets on base, scores runs, drives runs in, and that's the point of the game
Defense- 4... gets to a lot of balls others don't because of his stride, good arm

Washington Nationals- Willie Harris

While the Nats have done a good job of building an everyday roster of very good offensive players, the weakest known quantity lives in right field in the person of Willie Harris (and potentially Wily Taveras). Harris is a journeyman, with his fifth team since 2001 while posting a .246 career average. He walks a good bit, which mitigates his low average, particularly given his speed. A little guy, his versatility has probably kept him in the majors this long and probably will keep him around another few years. However, don't be surprised if Harris is replaced in right field sooner than later.

Offense- 2... gets on base, should try to slap the ball, not hit home runs
Defense- 3... for versatility, as he's appeared at every defensive position except for 1B and catcher

Right Field Round Up

Best Right fielder- Jayson Werth
Best Offensively- Werth
Best Defensively- Jeff Francoeur
Worst Offensively- Willie Harris
Worst Defensively- Cody Ross
Best in Five Years- Jason Heyward

NL East Centerfielders

2010-04-01T18:11:00.000-07:00

In our preview of the NL East we now move to John Fogerty's favorite position, centerfield...

Atlanta Braves- Nate McLouth

McLouth came to the Braves from Pittsburgh mid-year in 2009, and put up almost identical numbers in both stops (.256/9/34 with Pittsburgh, .257/11/36 with the Braves). While the average is constant, the compiler numbers don't look so hot in Atlanta given that McLouth played 39 more games for the Braves. McLouth in a lot of ways is the centerfield version of Matt Diaz. He gets on base, has a little pop and steals some bases for you, but at the end of the day, he's Nate McLouth and is only an average to good major league regular. His nine outfield assists are a good number, but his range is nothing special. Even so, he did bag a Gold Glove in 2008.

Offense- 3... a Major League regular
Defense- 3.5... makes plays

Florida Marlins- Cameron Maybin

While Cameron Maybin was anticipated by some to contend for the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year award, fellow Fish rookie Chris Coghlan took home the honors. However, Maybin was terrible in '09, so much so that he earned himself a trip back to AAA in May, and didn't return until rosters expanded on September 1st. Maybin is only 22 years old (23 on Sunday), and is a classic case of why most players that young shouldn't be rushed to the majors. He struggled terribly before being sent down, hitting only .202 and striking out 31 times in 95 plate appearances. He posted decent numbers after his recall, but one could assume much of this production was compiled against other AAA level players, teams playing out the string, or both. Until he proves he belongs, Maybin will remain a 'toolsy' player who hasn't quite been able to put those tools to good use on a major league diamond.

Offense- 1.5... has to prove he can hit major league pitching, or he'll be back in AAA quickly
Defense- 3... can run and throw, which should lead him to be a decent outfielder

New York Mets- Carlos Beltran

Beltran will spend a considerable portion of time on the disabled list to start 2010, but he is the best centerfielder in the division when he plays. He gets on base and hits for power from both sides of the plate, as well as patrolling centerfield at a very high level. He's a bit like Bobby Abreu, with a lower batting average and more power. Like Jose Reyes, Beltran is gaining a bit of a reputation of a guy who acts like he has rings, but in actuality hasn't ever won anything. He parlayed a nice playoff performance with the Astros in 2004 into riches in Queens, but like the other stars of recent Met teams (Reyes, David Wright), seems unwilling to be THE guy to make the big play in the big situation, preferring instead to comfortably fit in. He's a very good offensive player, but not a great one. He wins Gold Gloves. And misses lots of games.

Offense- 4... high OBP and good power from both sides is no joke
Defense- 4.5... has rightfully earned multiple Gold Gloves

Philadelphia Phillies- Shane Victorino

Victorino is the rambunctious child of the Phillies, the overly-energetic kid that can't sit still, which sometimes gets him in trouble, but other times stirs action where none previously existed. He fears no one and nothing, and has managed to combine his baseball talents with his best tool, speed. Victorino, like Jimmy Rollins, steals bases with an alarming success rate, thanks in large part to Phils first base coach Davey Lopes. Victorino also uses his speed to leg out triples (NL leading 13 in 2009), track down fly balls in center, and generally put pressure on the defense. Like Rollins, a more patient approach may benefit him, but a move in the order from second to seventh may be more suited to Victorino and provide some punch to the lower third of the already dynamic Phillies' offense. Victorino runs down everything in the outfield, and possesses a rightfielder's arm, earning him a Gold Glove each of the last two seasons.

Offense- 3.5...Very similar to Rollins, and the move to seventh should benefit him
Defense- 5... arm strength gives him slight edge over Beltran

Washington Nationals- Nyjer Morgan

Nyjer Morgan, like McLouth, left Pittsburgh in mid-season in 2009, and the Nationals are the beneficiaries. Morgan hit .351 and stole 24 bases in 51 games after the move to DC, finishing the season with a .307 average overall in what really was his first full-time season in the bigs. (I thought his performance in Washington had to do with the excitement of being near Alexander Ovechkin, as Morgan, who played major juinor hockey in Alberta, is a big fan of the pucks). Now 29, Morgan fits nicely into the mix for the emerging Nationals offense. A classic singles hitter, Morgan can run, but is getting thrown out too much right now and has to improve that number. Either way, his speed won't slump, and this is something that opposing pitchers have to take into account ahead of the likes of Dunn and Willingham. Morgan is a pretty good outfielder, but not at the level of Beltran and Victorino just yet.

Offense- 3.5... run more, get caught less
Defense- 4... willing, solid, good arm

Centerfield Wrap Up

Best CF- Carlos Beltran... when he plays
Best Offensively- Beltran... when he plays
Best Defensively- Shane Victorino
Just A Guy- Nate McLouth
Most Potential to Bust Out- Nyjer Morgan
Best in Five Years- Victorino

Left Field in the NL East

2010-03-31T19:44:00.000-07:00

Out into the outfield now, with left field...

Atlanta Braves- Matt Diaz

Diaz has found at home in Atlanta after kicking around baseball's netherworld (Kansas City and the still terrible Devil Rays) during the early stages of his career. He won't play every single day, but is good for 12-135 games a year and doesn't kill you. He's a career .310 hitter, he posts decent power numbers, and even stole 12 bases in '09, and apparently has lost a lot of weight and is in great shape coming into 2010. With all of that being said, he's still Matt Diaz, is now 32 years old, and is likely to remain what he is, which is a solid Major Leaguer, but not a star and not close to it.

Offense- 3... mildly above average
Defense- 2.5... absolutely average

Florida Marlins- Chris Coghlan

Coghlan surprised many throughout the baseball world with his performance in 2009, which saw him hit .321 and take home NL Rookie of the Year honors. I honestly don't know what to think of Coghlan. He hit against everyone he played last year, and actually got stronger as the season wore on, hitting .385 in August and .390 in September/October. He hit nine home runs and stole eight bases, neither of which stands out, but I think Coghlan will continue to hit. He posted a .390 OBP for the Fish in '09, and anything near that will work for the presumed leadoff man of the future. He's pretty average in left field, but that's every left fielder, no?

Offense- 4... high average, I'd like to see more power or speed... hits are hits though, especially for a leadoff man
Defense- 2.5... not great, doesn't hurt you

New York Mets- Jason Bay

Has there ever been a more peculiar match of a marquee free agent and a team? When Bay's four year deal with the Mets was announced in December, many baseball people were left scratching their heads. The Mets? In Citi Field? With his injury concerns? Bay is a very good player, and he put up great numbers in 2009, his free agent walk year. However, a right handed power hitter can't be thrilled with the prospect of playing in cavernous Citi Field, and a left fielder with limited range especially can't be thrilled about having to patrol that much real estate, particularly while Carlos Beltran is on the mend. Boston was concerned enough about Bay's long-term injury potential so as to have only tepid interest in retaining him, even with as productive as he was in the Red Sox. I think Bay will be fine in New York, but I'd surprised if he put up numbers befitting a $16.5 million per year player.

Offense- 3.5... he's a 4 in Boston's lineup playing at Fenway, but as a vital cog in an anemic offense in a big park, not so much
Defense- 2... below average range

Philadelphia Phillies- Raul Ibanez

Ibanez enjoyed a successful first season in Philadelphia, posting 34 home runs and 93 RBI along with a career-high .899 OPS, and earning a trip to his first All-Star game. However, his first half was much better than his second half in 2009 (as in, 70 points of average and 10 home runs better in the first half). Was the drop off due to the sports hernia that he had corrected in the offseason? Or was age starting to catch up to the 37 year old? Ibanez did hit over .300 in two of the Phillies' three playoff series, and also landed a crushing home run off of George Sherrill in Game One of the NLCS. However, his under .100 performance with only one home run in 2010's spring training has not allayed many fears about his health, age, or both. One thing Ibanez has proven is that he's much better defensively than many American League experts predicted. However, this could be only a result of watching Pat Burrell and his total lack of range in left for the previous eight seasons. Ibanez catches what he gets to and shows a good arm, which is good enough for a left fielder, particularly if Shane Victorino can help make up ground in left-center.

Offense- 3... I honestly have no idea what to expect this year... could be a 4, could be a 2
Defense- 2... good enough

Washington Nationals- Josh Willingham

Willingham turned into a solid contributor to the Nats' attack in his first season in Washington in 2009. Willingham slugged 24 home runs and posted a very good OBP of .367. The fact that he only had 61 RBI to show for his 24 home runs suggests that a) the Nats still had too many automatic outs in the lineup and/or b) Adam Dunn cleared the bases before him with a home run or an inning ending strikeout. In any case, even though his numbers weren't necessarily career highs in anything, Willingham looked better in '09, and seems to have finally found a home after being shifted all over the diamond by the Marlins. He's a solid bet to put up another good year of a .260 something average and 25-35 home runs depending on how much he plays. He, and Nats fans, hope that the RBI totals spike a bit with steady lines in his other categories. Repeating the theme for leftfielders, Willingham can catch the balls he gets to, and that's good enough. Generally guys who play other positions are asked to do so because they have an innate athletic ability, however, Willingham hasn't played any other defensive position particularly well, so I think it just means teams want his power stick in the lineup.

Offense- 3.5... gets on base and hits the ball out of the park... righthanded power is hard to come by... might be Jason Bay without the trip to Boston and the contract
Defense- 2... if half of life is showing up, Willingham (and the rest of NL East LF) are just fine

Left Field Wrap Up

Best Leftfielder- Jason Bay
Best Offensively- Bay
Best Defensively- is there REALLY a tallest midget in the circus?
Could Be Great, Might Just Be old- Raul Ibanez
Just a Guy- Matt Diaz
Best in Five Years- Chris Coghlan

Up next, we shift to center...

NL East Shortstops

2010-03-31T12:40:00.000-07:00

#6 on the field, often number 1 in your heart...

Atlanta Braves- Yunel Escobar

Escobar's numbers improved modestly in 2009, his second full season as Atlanta's shortstop. He will hit in the high .200s to low .300s, but shows modest power (10-15 home runs) and little speed (12-24 lifetime in stolen base attempts). He's very good defensively, and could concievably win a Gold Glove someday, maybe even this year. Watching him play, his attitude very clearly irks Bobby Cox more than occasionally, and one wonders how good he would be if he spent more time watching video of pitchers and trying to pick up their cues and moves, and less time acting like a clown and getting his hair frosted blond. At 27, it's time for Escobar to step up and become a good player, or remain content to just be another guy.

Offense- 2.5... pretty average all the way around... no secondary numbers, and his average is even mitigated a bit by his propensity to hit into double plays
Defense- 4.5... good range, good arm, makes the plays he's supposed to and can be spectacular

Florida Marlins- Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez might very well be the most talented player in the division, and if he's not the best player, he's on the short list. I'd argue that Ramirez and Chase Utley are the two best players in the division, and their offensive stat lines are remarkably similar. Ramirez won his first batting title in 2009 with a .342 average, and it would surprise no one if that were the first of many batting crowns. Still only 26, Ramirez hits for average and power, can run, and can hit anywhere in the top of the order. As good as his '09 was, I think Hanley actually had a better season in 2008, when he hit for more power, walked more, and led the NL in runs scored. He's only modest in the field, and his ability at short coupled with his size make him an ideal candidate to shift to third base in the future, a la Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez. If you were to start a franchise and could pick any one player to do so, you could do a lot worse than Ramirez.

Offense- 5... batting champs who can drive the ball and run are hard to come by, but this is one
Defense- 2... I think he'd better better at third, but that may not happen until he signs with the Yankees or Red Sox in a few years

New York Mets- Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes, for better or worse, is the face of this era of New York Mets baseball. He was one of the cornerstones that the team intended to build around in the middle of the decade, debuted at 20 in 2003, went to the playoffs in 2006, was a big part of a late-season meltdown in 2007, had an OK 2008 and not much of a 2009 with injuries. A tantalizing combination of leadoff speed and home run capability, Reyes has yet to prove that he really has a clue about what's going on during a game. Each of his last two healthy seasons he has led the league in caught stealing, and he remains difficult to walk, but not as difficult as in his first few seasons. His career .337 on base percentage is not good enough to be an effective leadoff hitter for a team that struggles to score runs. And- fairly or unfairly- he more than any other is the face and name cited by other teams as acting the fool and getting them riled up. Who's clowning around incited a brawl with the Marlins on the next-to-last day of the 2007 season and gave a Marlin team playing for nothing motivation to help complete the Mets' historic collapse? Jose Reyes. What name was scrawled on Shane Victorino's locker plate after he rounded first with his hand in the air after his playoff grand slam against CC Sabathia in the 2008 playoffs? J. Reyes. Reyes has rightfully earned the reputation of a guy who celebrates a bit too much for a 5th inning home run in June, and other teams notice. Until he starts acting like a pro and wins something, instead of just acting like he's won something, the reputation will follow him. Don't let the offense and defense numbers fool you. If there was a 'makeup' category, he'd be in Dan Uggla defense-land, and that detracts from his admittedly strong suits.

Offense- 4... can hit the ball out of the park, and steals tons of bases... also hard to walk and gets thrown out too much on the base paths
Defense- 5... very good all around

Philadelphia Phillies- Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins is the anti- Jose Reyes. In many ways, they are similar. Both are leadoff hitting shortstops, both play excellent defense, both can hit the ball out of the park and steal lots of bases. Both like to run their mouths, but the difference is that Rollins backs up what he says, and Reyes disappears in big spots. Rollins said prior to the 2007 season that Philadelphia was the team to beat, and then went out and won the NL MVP award. Rollins said the Phils would win 100 games in 2008, and between the regular season and playoffs they won 103. Rollins is the guy you saw make the diving stab to turn a double play to clinch the division title in 2008, and the guy whose double to the gap with two outs down a run against the Dodgers won Game Four of the 2009 NLCS. The numbers say Rollins and Reyes are similar, but if you watch them both play everyday, you know that they're not. Having said all of that, Rollins has to be better about pitch selection and working counts to be effective for the Phillies. His is a simple formula- when he scores, the Phillies win. Period, end of sentence. Because of this, more doubles on 2-2 counts are preferable to 1-0 pop ups. Rollins, like Reyes, steals a lot of bases, but unlike Reyes, he rarely gets caught, taking 119 out of 136 over the past three years. Rollins' range and arm are exceptional, and he had rightly earned three consecutive Gold Gloves.

Offense- 4... a 3.5 without his base stealing success rate, has to do much better than the .296 OBP he posted in 2009
Defense- 5... as good as anyone in baseball

Washington Nationals- Ian Desmond

This week's announcement that Desmond will be the Nats' everyday shortstop came as little surprise to those who follow the team. Cristian Guzman's range and abilities are a bit limited at this point, and the 24-year old Desmond is thought ready to handle playing every day in the show. In limited duty in 09, Desmond looked to belong, hitting .280 with four home runs in 21 games, while displaying tools that provide all the evidence you need for why the Nats are high on him. However, I have my doubts about his ability at the plate at the big league level. Prior to 2009, Desmond never hit above .264 for a season in the minors, and half of his 50 minor league home runs came at the High A level. He has also struck out two and a half times as often as he's walked, which are not good indicators that he'll make consistent contact or show good pitch selection in the majors. He's still young, and his 2009 season may have been the result of everything clicking into place for him. Time will tell for Desmond, and the Nationals intend to find out over the 162 game long haul.

Offense- 2... You've got to perform better for more than 21 games to prove you can hit big league pitching
Defense- 2... Posted some ghastly fielding percentages in the minors

Shortstop Wrap Up

-Best Shortstop- Jimmy Rollins
-Best Third Baseman Moonlighting at SS- Hanley Ramirez
-Best Offensively- Ramirez
-Best Defensively- Rollins
-Worst Offensively- Ian Desmond
-Worst Defensively- Desmond
-Biggest Question- Can Desmond be a servicable to good shortstop in the bigs?
-Best in Five Years- Ramirez, but probably at third base

Up next, left field...

Third Base

2010-03-24T22:52:00.000-07:00

Now on to third base...

Atlanta Braves- Chipper Jones

Much speculation has floated about in the offseason about the possibility that 2010 will be Chipper's final season. That is a scenario that makes sense, with Chipper turning 38 in June and the only manager he's ever played for, Bobby Cox, retiring after this season. Injuries have also started to slow down Jones, as 2009 was the first season he's played more than 140 games since 2003. His power numbers remained relatively constant, but his batting average fell exactly 100 points to .264 after winning the NL batting crown in 2008. Jones has no speed, and has never been a great fielder, which has only been made worse with age. Jones can still be a productive hitter, but he's unlikely to win another batting crown or even come close. If he does play beyond 2010, a move across the diamond to first base (a la Troy Glaus) may be the move that extends his career. Chipper is 74 home runs from 500, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick around to try to reach that plateau. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him walk away this year either.

Offense- 4... career .307 hitter still dangerous from both sides of the plate, just not as dangerous as he was
Defense- 2... below average

Florida Marlins- Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms

Let's cut to the chase. Neither one can play. Bonifacio is really fast, which is nice except that he never gets on base and has no power, as evidenced by the fact that he had the lowest OPS (.611) in all of baseball in 2009. He makes up for this by being below average in the field. Helms stinks. His one potential tool is power, but he only hit three home runs in 214 at-bats in 2009. He catches and makes plays on balls he gets to, but that's not a whole heck of a lot. However, his cousin is Ed Helms, who plays Andy Bernard on The Office.

Offense- 1.5... no power, and about a .300 on-base percentage between them
Defense- 0.5... uggghhh

New York Mets- David Wright

David Wright is a very nice player, one of the better players in all of baseball. He's a good hitter, and possesses an outstanding glove. He appeared to be the biggest victim of the Mets' move to Citi Field, as he dropped to 10 home runs in 618 trips to the plate, which isn't good for a guy counted upon to provide a big portion of the power for a homer-hungry club. Wright is a very good player, but not a leader, and his talent and stature on his club probably demands more of him. However, he plays every day, hits .300 and plays Gold Glove level defense. Always a threat for the All-Star team, Wright is the best all-around player on the Mets.

Offense- 4... could be a five if his power rebounds... runs better than you think, with 27 steals last year
Defense- 4... probably a bit overrated, but still very good

Philadelphia Phillies- Placido Polanco

Polanco returns to Philadelphia for his second tour of duty after spending parts of four seasons with the Phils after arriving via the Scott Rolen trade. Polanco may be the best in the bigs at situational hitting and handling the bat, and he even won a Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009. However, the Phillies have a viable second baseman, so Polanco will make the switch to third. A perfect fit in the Phillies lineup, Polanco will hit second and allow the more free-swinging, faster, more powerful Shane Victorino slide to the seven hole and provide some punch in the bottom part of the order. However, the man he replaces, Pedro Feliz, was one of the better, if not the best, defensive third basemen in baseball, with great range and a laser arm. Polanco's range isn't as good, and I have concerns about whether or not he has a third base arm for a full season. He won't drive you nuts at the plate like Feliz, but he won't pick it and throw it or hit for the power that Feliz did either.

Offense- 3.5... perfect fit as the disciplined good cop in the two hole for the Phillies
Defense- 3... catches the ball, but questions about arm persist

Washington Nationals- Ryan Zimmerman

Turning into Scott Rolen about 10 years later, but without the sulking and attitude. Zimmerman had a monster 2009, hitting .292 with 33 home runs and 106 RBI while winning the Gold Glove. Beat that. Still only 25, Zimmerman will continue getting better and will serve as the lynchpin around which the Nats attempt to build. And he's a great piece to build around. His numbers are on an upswing as he continues to figure out who he is as a hitter and a fielder, and there's no reason to believe that he won't be an All-Star at the hot corner for years to come.

Offense- 4... doesn't run and hasn't hit over .300 in a full year, but he's very good with the bat
Defense- 4... makes the routine plays and some of the spectacular ones

Third Base Wrap Up
-Best Third Baseman- David Wright
-Best Offensively- At this stage Wright, Jones and Zimmerman are all really close
-Best Defensively- Ryan Zimmerman
-Worst Offensively- Emilio Bonifacio
-Worst Defensively- Emilio Bonifacio
-Biggest Question- Placido Polanco's arm
-Best in Five Years- Zimmerman

We'll next move from the fifth position to number six, the shortstops...

Second Base in the NL East

2010-03-23T22:53:00.000-07:00

Now your NL East second sackers...

Atlanta Braves- Martin Prado

A versatile player for the Braves, Martin Prado appeared at 1B, 2B, 3B and in the outfield for the Braves in 2009. However, with Kelly Johnson having moved on to the Diamondbacks, the Braves' second base job appears to be Prado's in 2010. The 26-year old Venezuelan hit .307 in over 500 at-bats in 2009, however, despite nearly doubling his at-bat total from 2008, his average went down, his RBI total only went up 16, while his home runs went up more than five fold. This suggests a player with warning track power trying a little too hard to hit the ball out of the park. He also didn't have a triple and stole only one base, which suggests he's slow, has no instincts for baserunning, or both. Because of playing all over the diamond his defense was a little questionable, but he's going to have to be better at 2B to remain in the lineup, particularly with Atlanta's pitching staff needing stellar defense in the many close games they play.
Offense- 2.5... hits over .300, but no power and zero speed
Defense- 2.0... has to be better

Florida Marlins- Dan Uggla

First, I'll believe that the Marlins keep Uggla all year when I see it. Now... Dan Uggla is the 21st century, infielding version of Dave Kingman. His numbers look ok, but when you watch him hit, he's very clearly trying to hit every ball into the upper deck. He swings often, swings from the heels, and hits big or misses big. He hit 31 home runs and 90 RBI in 09, but had only 27 doubles. That's right, in the Marlins park, hitting righthanded, with that scoreboard out in leftfield, Uggla had more home runs than doubles. That is absurd. To watch Uggla play is to understand the character Pedro Cerrano from Major League. Like Cerrano, Uggla's bats are afraid of the curveball, and any decent non-hanger is likely to solicit a mighty swing and a miss. His walk totals have increased steadily over his career, but this is likely the result of pitchers being afraid he will hit one out (and therefore nibbling), rather than an improvement in his batting eye. In the field, Uggla is atrocious. I could say more, but that wouldn't be nice. I understand that he hits 30 home runs and drives in 90, but his defense is so bad it doesn't come close to being a good tradeoff over a second baseman who is just average offensively and defensively. Maybe stat heads will scream foul on that, but if you watch Uggla play, you wouldn't argue that point.

Offense- 3... strong power numbers are mitigated by utter lack of interest in anything but long ball
Defense- 0... worthless, at least if the position was unoccupied baseball people wouldn't pull their hair out watching him try to field... badly needs to move to 1B or DH

New York Mets- Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo continues to hurt the Mets beyond just his contributions on the field. It feels like eight offseasons in a row that the Mets have wanted to sign Orlando Hudson, but have been unable to find a taker for a clearly declined Castillo and his ridiculous contract (courtesy of Omar Minaya, of course). The enduring image of Castillo's stay in Flushing is likely to be his dropped pop-up on a ball hit by A-Rod that would have ended the game in a Met win, but instead ended with two Yankees charging home to win for the team in the Bronx. I freely admit watching this play unfold and breaking into uproarious, uncontrollable laughter for the better part of 10 minutes. Aside from this, however, and to Castillo's credit, he played much better in the second half of 2009 than he had for the Mets before that, hitting .321 in the second half after posting a .285 mark in the first half of the season. I don't think that means he's got everything turned around, but I do think it means he still has the potential to be a productive player. Still only 34, it feels like Castillo has been around forever (only 1996 actually), and his .302 average actually would have led the Phillies in 2008 and 2009. However, part of what made Castillo great was his outstanding speed, and having lost a bit of it, he's no longer an All-Star caliber player, just a capable player than can play everyday when he's healthy. However, he's paid for to well to be only that, and his one home run and 20 stolen bases in 09 indicate he doesn't have anything exceptional to offer.

Offense- 3... .300 hitters are .300 hitters... even with diminished speed and no power
Defense- 3... good enough, not as quick as he was

Philadelphia Phillies- Chase Utley

Chase Utley, with the possible exception of Hanley Ramirez, is the best all-around player in the NL East. Already an impressive hitter for average and power and improving defender, Utley added to the repetoire by going 23-23 in stolen base attempts in 2009. What I will say separates Utley from Ramirez and gives him the edge is that Ramirez wants to win, but Utley is a stone-cold killer. His steely glare and expressionless face belie a burning passion to win everything he does at all costs. His short swing hits baseballs unimaginable distances, he calmly trots around the bases chewing gum (and other substances), touches home plate, bumps fists with teammates and strolls back to the Phils dugout with a non-chalant arrogance that shows that he knows and you know that he's the baddest mother going these days. Jimmy Rollins may provide the Phillies' mouthpiece, but it is Utley who provides the will and attitude for a team that doesn't talk about beating you (Mets), doesn't think about how cool it is to beat you (Marlins), it just beats you. Utley has made himself a much better second baseman (not a Gold Glover, as UZR nerds, I mean devotees, will tell you), but he is much better than when he came up. Without a hip injury, or an offseason rehab from a hip injury to worry about as he has the last two seasons, pencil in Utley for .300/30/100. And maybe even a smile or two on the field.

Offense- 5... .300 hitter, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 25 steals all within reach, without the kryptonite of strikeouts and lefthanders that often befall Ryan Howard... if he posts those four marks, he's an MVP candidate
Defense- 4... really good, but I watch every game, therefore I know he's not a GG second sacker... catches and fields better than he throws, but throws better when going to his left than his right

Washington Nationals- Adam Kennedy

If David Eckstein is the Little Engine that Could, Adam Kenneday is the Little Engine that Can Too. A smaller guy with no discernable outstanding tool, Kennedy is a pro's pro that does everything well, but nothing outstanding. He's not a black hole in the lineup, nor in the field. He doesn't make mental mistakes, doesn't get himself out, shows a little pop (7-10 HR) and speed (15-25 SB) and fits in well in a clubhouse. That describes every player the Angels have had over the last decade, and a good face for the Angel way under Mike Scioscia might well be Kennedy's. After spending 2009 in Oakland, Kennedy comes to Washington to stabilize second base and add another degree of professionalism to the Nationals. Kennedy won't make the all-star team, won't be in MVP discussion, and still won't be a household name at the end of the season, but he will make second base one less thing the Nats have to worry about in 2010.

Offense- 3... fully average and competent in pretty much each area
Defense- 3... see above... not a great arm, but it's second base

Second Base Wrap Up
Best First Baseman- Chase Utley
Best Offensive First Baseman- Utley
Best Defensive First Baseman- Utley
Worst Offensive First Baseman- Martin Prado
Worst Defensive First Baseman- Uggla... could be the worst fielder at his position in baseball
Best in Five Years- Probably still Utley

Up Next, Third Base...

NL East First Basemen

2010-03-08T22:03:00.000-08:00

Continuing on the tour of the NL East, today we visit First Base...

Atlanta Braves- Troy Glaus

I've always been a fan of Troy Glaus, and in bringing him to Atlanta for the 2010 season, I think the Bravos took the type of low-risk chance that could wind up paying huge dividends for them. A third baseman his whole career, injuries limited Glaus to only 14 games in 2009, but he has played well over 130 games more than he hasn't in his big league career. While the days of 40 home runs and 100 RBI are probably in the past for a myriad of reasons, Glaus' arrival gives the Braves a legitimate offensive threat at first. If he hits .265 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI, I think the Braves would take that. And they should, after drawing dead with the likes of Casey Kotchman in recent years, save for that stretch when they rented Mark Teixeira.
Offense- 3.5- gives power and production from a power spot... not a premier slugger anymore, but still productive
Defense- 3.0- range shouldn't be an issue given his history at 3B, and 1B doesn't have to throw as much as other positions

Florida Marlins- Jorge Cantu

Cantu seems to have finally found a home at first base for the Marlins, after spending the early part of his career playing all over the infield with the Rays and Reds. Still only 28, Cantu posted his second 100-RBI season, reaching the century mark in 149 games in 2009. While his home run number dropped almost in half (29-16) from 2008, his 40 plus double seasons will continue to drive in runs for the young Marlins, particularly with the angularity of the outfield at the Marlins' home stadium, whatever it's called now. Cantu looks like he should be able to run a little, but can't, but he's more than adequate defensively and still finds himself at third every once in awhile for the Marlins. Cantu is a good bet to produce along his average season, which is about .285 with 20 home runs and 90 RBI.
Offense- 3.5- good stick, drives in runs, can be impatient, which is characteristic of most of the Fish
Defense- 2.5- average utility type player... doesn't kill your team, but isn't spectacular either

New York Mets- Daniel Murphy

Daniel Murphy, still only 25, has lived a few lifetimes in his Mets' career already. He came up as a 23-year old in 2008 to join a cast intent on gagging down the stretch for the second straight season, and he actually hit well, finishing with a .313 average in 131 at bats. Murphy had a decent second season in 2009, leading the Mets with 12 home runs in splitting time between the outfield and first base. But here's the rub. Daniel Murphy can't catch. Murphy made 10 errors in 101 games AS A FIRST BASEMAN, giving him a lower fielding percentage than even (gulp) Ryan Howard. He was even worse in the outfield, throwing up a fielding percentage of only .950. Those fielding percentages just can't happen, and they're only mitigated if you're a major run producer (like Howard) or you have a shutdown pitching staff that doesn't need the defensive help (and come on, what pitcher doesn't throw better in front of a good defense). I can't prove it, obviously, but I think Murphy carries the struggle with the glove to the plate. Hitting is difficult against Major League pitching, but there's a comfort there that you have through every level of baseball: find the release point, pick up the rotation of the ball, locate where it will cross the plate, swing or don't. A natural third baseman, the Mets are so starved for a decent bat (which I think Murphy can be), that they've ruined him defensively by throwing him all over the diamond in unfamiliar spots. And under the bright lights of the big leagues and the harsh glare of New York, that can't be a great combination. The good news/bad news routine is this: good news- Murphy led the Mets in home runs in 2009. Bad news: he hit 12, also known as a good two weeks for half of the Phillies' lineup.
Offense- 2.5... one of the Mets better hitters in '09, but that's not saying a whole lot
Defense- 0.5... terrible... you have to catch the ball at some position to be an effective player for an NL team

Philadelphia Phillies- Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard is the best run-producing lefthanded stick in baseball today. Period, end of story, thanks for coming. The only competiton to the crown in all of baseball plays 1B in St. Louis and 3B in the Bronx, but from the leftside, Howard is it. He is the anchor and RBI machine of the NL's best offensive team. He certainly does have his kryptonite, as pointed out recently by Tom Verducci, but he's reached 45 home runs and 135 RBI each of the last four seasons, missing the 140 threshold only in 2007 when a DL stint left him with a mere 136. No one hits them harder, farther or to the opposite field with the ferocity that Howard does, and when the guys before him have names like Rollins, Polanco and Utley and the guys after him names like Werth, Ibanez and Victorino, you can be sure he will get plenty more RBI chances in 2010. The two biggest knocks on Howard have been his weight and his defense, two items he has attacked head on the last two offseasons, losing a ton of weight and working hard with Phillies infield coach Sam Perlozzo to improve his defense. And this AFTER winning a World Series and getting a big raise. That tells you all you need to know about the player referred to by legendary Phils broadcaster Harry Kalas simply as "The Big Man."
Offense- 5... his numbers don't lie, and as scary as letting Utley or Werth beat you might be, teams would still rather take their chances than giving in to Howard
Defense- 2... still below average, but working hard to make it better... a great player refusing to be 'just good enough' says a lot about his makeup

Washington Nationals- Adam Dunn

Dunn is a lot like Jim Thome, in that he's the type of guy that you can reliably predict each of his plate appearances as one of three outcomes- a home run, a walk, or a strikeout. In fact, for his career, Dunn has come to the plate 5417 times, and homered (316), walked (913) or struck out (1433) in 2662 of those plate appearances, or 49% of the time. While it is surely aggravating to watch someone with those ratios and wonder what could be if he would just put the ball in play more, this attitude also minimizes some of Dunn's true value. While only a .249 career hitter, he reaches base at a .398 clip, and his OPS is a stellar .903. Dunn is what he is, and might be the most predictable first sacker in the division... he hits 40 or so home runs, drives in 100 or so runs, walks a ton and strikes out more. An outfielder for most of his career, Dunn is probably anchored at first for as long as he's in the NL, as a move to the AL would almost certainly render him a DH.
Offense- 4... low average combatted by high secondary numbers and extraordinary run production, mostly for bad teams
Defense- 0.5... he wears a glove... that's about it

First Base Wrap Up

Best First Baseman- Ryan Howard
Best Offensive First Baseman- Howard
Best Defensive First Baseman- Troy Glaus, if I have to pick one
Worst Offensive First Baseman- Daniel Murphy, leave the trouble with the glove out of the batter's box
Worst Defensive First Baseman- Murphy... hey, Adam Dunn can catch
Potential to be the best value- Glaus... if he stays healthy
Best in Five Years- Howard... his production is virtually unprecedented, and he's still young

Up next, Second Base...

NL East Catching

2010-03-04T13:02:00.000-08:00

Ok, I'll admit it... I've been slacking off a bit, and haven't posted since the end of January. What happened in the mean time? Nothing much, aside from a million inches of snow. Approimately.

In any event, Spring Training is in full swing and games are being played, which is far more interesting than potential arbitration cases or a stadium getting a new coporate name.

Between now and the start of the season I want to provide at least a thumbnail for each team, but I want to jump a bit deeper into each aspect of the division I follow most closely, the National League East. I'll rate each player offensively and defensively against others at their position (so a highly rated offensive catcher isn't compared to a highly rated offensive left fielder), with a five being Ted Williams (bat) or Ozzie Smith (glove), and one being Eric Bruntlett (bat) or Dan Uggla (glove). I guess you know what I'll be giving Uggla in the field when I get to second basemen. Oh well. Today I'll start with the division's catchers...

Atlanta Braves- Brian McCann and David Ross (backup)

The Braves boast the best all around catcher in the NL East in Brian McCann, an NL All-Star each of the past four seasons. He is far and away the most productive offensive catcher in the division, and he doesn't kill you defensively, although 12 errors last season are more than you want to see from your catcher. McCann's biggest problem might be that he's too important to the Braves offensively, and therefore has to play too much. Even with that, McCann has showed himself to be very durable, and another season of hitting around .300 while playing 135 games would surprise absolutely no one. Ross is the quintessential journeyman backup catcher, boasting a career batting average of .228, but throwing out 40% of attempted base stealers in his career, which is a good thing in a division where great base stealers live. Ross actually hit .273 with seven home runs and struck out 39 times in 128 at bats in 2009, which suggests that when he played, he was swinging for the fences. McCann turns 26 this year and Ross 33, so a similar performance from last year is anticipated

Offense- McCann- 5, Ross- 1... McCann is probably the best offensive catcher in baseball... Ross isn't
Defense- McCann- 2, Ross- 4... Clean it up back there, Brian... You had 4x as many errors as Carlos Ruiz

Florida Marlins- Josh Baker and Ronny Paulino (backup)

Baker, in his second season in the show, almost doubled his playing time and rewarded Freddy Gonzalez by hitting .271 and providing stability for the Fish behind the plate. The A's fourth round pick in 2002 garnered several mentions in Moneyball, but has turned into a solid pro for the even more cost-conscious Marlins. Baker is a big kid who threw out 20% of attempted base stealers last year, but I think he's better than that at controlling the running game because the Marlins almost always have young pitchers (and power arm Josh Johnson), and young pitchers (and power arms like Josh Johnson) usually stink at holding runners. Baker is a big guy, but if Baker is big, Paulino is fat. He appeared in 80 games in '09, and actually did a good job for a guy that was traded twice in spring training. He threw out 31% of would be base stealers, and didn't embarrass himself at the plate, hitting .272. Paulino is what he is at this point, but I think Baker improves his overall game moderately, but enough to take notice.

Offense- Baker- 2.5 and rising, Paulino- 2.5 and steady... seeing pitchers he knows can only help Baker
Defense- Baker- 2 and rising, Paulino- 2.5 and fat... Baker needs to get better throwing out runners

New York Mets- Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, Omir Santos (backups)

Maybe the Mets carry three catchers. Maybe they don't. The unifying theme for all four of these guys is that they can't play. You can also draw three-way themes of rotund (Barajas, Blanco and Santos) or old (Barajas, Blanco and Coste). Barajas will get the majority of the playing time, and has shown himself to be a below average hitter who will hit 15-20 out of the park. However, I'm skeptical he'll do this in the Mets' cavernous Citi Field. Numbers suggest that he's a decent defensive player, but his refusal to get dirty and take a hit for the Phillies in 2007 in a play at the plate is forever etched in my memory. Having said that, when Barajas doesn't play, the Mets will be drawing absolutely dead in the catcher's spot offensively, although Blanco has a well-earned reputation as a good receiver.

Offense- Barajas- 2, backups- 0.5... Barajas gets a two on power... the rest aren't hitters
Defense- Barajas- 2.5, backups- 3.5... backup score driven completely by Blanco

Philadelphia Phillies- Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider (backup)

Ruiz is a bit of a late-bloomer, having transitioned behind the plate while already in professional ball, and now enters his fourth full season in the bigs. A great handler of pitches in the dirt, Ruiz continues to improve behind the plate and with the bat. He hit .255 with nine home runs and 43 RBI in 2009, and in the lineup he's in, he's the perfect eight-hole hitter. Landing Schneider as the backup is a bit of a coup for the Phillies, as he probably could start for several teams, and he always hurts the Phillies offensively. His value is in his glove, and his defense and even his modest hitting ability are significant upgrades over last year's backup, Paul Bako.

Offense- Ruiz- 2.5, Schneider- 1.5... unless it's the playoffs, in which case Ruiz becomes a 4.5
Defense- Ruiz- 3.5, Schneider- 3.5... Not great at throwing out runners, but stop everything near them

Washington Nationals- Ivan Rodriguez and Jesus Flores (backup)

In a step towards respectability after a 103-loss season that saw the Nats dispatch Manager Manny Acta, Washington signed legendary, if not aging, Pudge Rodriguez to backstop their club. It can be argued that Pudge is the greatest all-around catcher in baseball history, but in 2010 he's hardly at his peak. Despite this being his 20th season in the bigs, Pudge is still only 38 years old and comes off a decent 2009 campaign that saw him catch 115 games. The offensive numbers are down and now reside in the range of a normal catcher, but Pudge's arm is still as good as anyone, and he threw out 35% of base stealers last season. I really like Flores' potential, a catcher the Nats snagged from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2007 season. He has shown a bit of promise with both the glove and the stick, and at 25, has much room to grow into an excellent everyday catcher, particularly if he pays attention to anything he can learn from Rodriguez.

Offense- Rodriguez-2, Flores- 3... If it's five years ago or five years from now, both numbers could be much higher
Defense- Rodriguez- 4.5, Flores-3.5... Pudge's only down mark is his age... Flores could benefit greatly from Rodriguez' presence

NL East Catching Wrap Up

Best Catcher- Brian McCann
Best Team Depth- Phillies
Best Offensively- Brian McCann
Best Defensively- Ivan Rodriguez
Worst Offensively- Any one for the Mets not named Barajas
Worst Defensively- Ronny Paulino
Worst Team Depth- Mets
Best At Blocking Balls in the Dirt- Carlos Ruiz
Best Arm- Ivan Rodriguez
Best Fit on His Team- Carlos Ruiz
Best In Five Years- Jesus Flores
Best Backup- Brian Schneider

Up next... First basemen...

Wednesday Notes

2010-01-20T13:10:00.000-08:00

- Arbitration numbers have been exchanged, and my favorite is that of Joe Blanton. Blanton filed at $10.25 million for 2010, while the Phillies filed at $7.5 million. Excuse me? Only four pitchers ever have filed arbitration numbers at $10 million or higher. Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano. And now Blanton. Which doesn't belong in that group of five? If I were the Phillies, I wouldn't settle, I'd take it right to arbitration, and my entire argument would consist of saying "Seriously?" and then sitting down.

- Today's Philadelphia Daily News also reports that the Phillies will try out Eric Gagne at some point today. Low risk. If he shows anything, why not?

- Turns out Benjie Molina won't join the Mets, opting instead to return to the Giants. Does Jason Bay catch?

- Joel Piniero remains eminently available and coveted. I don't know why either.

- Ok, I'll lay off Joel now. Enough is enough. How do I really feel? Decent pitcher, ok stuff, needs a good defense behind him and he can be a decent three or a good fourth starter on an NL team. Keeps you in the game, doesn't dominate, but doesn't go out in the second inning either.

- Sounds kinda like Joe Blanton. He of the $10.25 million arbitration request, you may have heard.

- Joe Posnanski's column does an outstanding job of explaining factors beyond steroids that have influenced baseball over the last 15 years or so- and also places the era in a bit of historical context.

- Is it just me, or has the steroid era become far too oversimplified? Much like the political landscape right now (Republicans calling every Democratic program socialist, Democrats blaming every problem in the country on George W. Bush), there is an easy, thoughtless, default answer to any challenge regarding the recent homer-happy era. Steroids. Just like in politics (where there's a big difference between government-assisted and government-run, and George W. hasn't been in office for over a year), the real answers are far more complex and nuanced, and involve varying degrees of incluence from numerous sources. Players such as Carlton Fisk and Jack Clark just sound like angry old-timers, when the reality is that many players of that (and every generation) also would have used steroids had they been involved in that era. Just stop. It's much more refreshing to hear an opinion like Mike Schmidt's, who acknowledges that if he played in that era he would've been tempted to use, and may very well have done so.

Thoughts and Musings For the First Time in '10

2010-01-19T16:11:00.000-08:00

- The Marlins, after receiving a scolding from the MLB and the Players Association, have agreed to increase payroll. They've started by signing Josh Johnson to a four-year deal and avoiding arbitration with Dan Uggla for 2010. My thoughts? I still don't believe either of those players will finish out those contracts in South Florida.

- Did I miss something about Joel Piniero? I'm sure he's a nice guy, but do you really trust a guy who had a great walk year with the Cardinals (and Dave Duncan) to continue that success? Does anyone remember Jeff Weaver and Braden Looper? Admittedly, Piniero is better than those guys, but spring training starts in about a month, and teams are looking at this guy as a rotation fixer? I don't think so. He only had 105 strikeouts in 214.1 innings in 2009, which should scare a team looking to give him a long-term deal.

- Now after my Joel Piniero-is-just-a-guy-rant, watch him go 18-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 220 innings this year. If he ever signs.

- Jose Valverde is an upgrade at the closer spot for Detroit. I'm not sure how much, though, as it just seems like everytime I see Valverde, his appearance turns into a high-wire act. Having said that, he's got better stuff than Fernando Rodney, and will give up fewer base runners. But I'm not sure the Tigers should spend $7 million a year for a closer when they've already lost several players because of payroll considerations. Good closers are hard to find, but if you're never ahead in the ninth, they don't do you much good.

- Tom Verducci's latest theory explores which teams got the most production for their money in the first decade of the 21st century.

- It merited far too little attention, but one of baseball's most dominant forces ever hung it up two weeks back with the retirement of Randy Johnson. The 6-10 lefty was so feared that many a lefthanded hitter coincidentally pulled up lame just before they were scheduled to face Johnson, and some (John Kruk, Larry Walker) publicly out and out refused to face him, only to be embarrassed when they did. Johnson was a 10-time All-Star, won five Cy Youngs and retired second on the all-time strikeout list. His best year may have been the strike-shortened 1995 campaign in which he went 18-2 with a 2.48 ERA and struck out 294 in only 214.1, propelling the Mariners all the way back from a big September deficit to overtake the Angels in a one-game playoff. Johnson pitched in relief a few times throughout his playoff career, taking home World Series MVP honors (along with Curt Schilling) in 2001, when he won game seven in relief. Johnson is the most dominating and intimidating pitcher of this generation, and he stacks up well with any pitcher of any generation. He is a first-ballot Hall of Fame lock when he comes up for election in January 2015.

- Finally, is that really the manager of the Phillies?

M-E-T-S

2010-01-14T16:02:00.000-08:00

It's only the middle of January, and the 2010 Mets already have the look of a team coming apart at the seams. Today's revelation that Carlos Beltran had knee surgery against the wishes of the team's management and will not resume baseball related activities for 12 weeks is the cherry on top. For those of you scoring at home, 12 weeks from now is the end of the first week of the regular season, and it appears likely Beltran will miss some significant time at the season's outset.

This cannot bode well for general manager Omar Minaya, who himself spent much of 2009 cooling off upon standing from his very hot seat. The Mets were ravaged by injuries in 2009 and stumbled to a 70-92 record despite a payroll of $149 million, which was exceeded only by the Yankees.

The Mets made some headlines by signing Jason Bay to patrol left field for the next several seasons, and appear to be on the verge of signing Benjie Molina to play behind the plate. The Mets are also reportedly keeping an eye on Carlos Delgado's progress during winter ball for a possible return to the club.

And? The Mets still stink.

Signing Bay was clearly a priority, given the team's utter lack of production from the corner outfield spots in 2009. And signing Molina would help them, because Henry Blanco and Chris Coste behind the dish everyday isn't going to get it done.

But have the Mets improved themselves significantly? Bay is an odd fit for Citi Field (and was perfectly suited for Fenway Park), and Molina will turn 36 in the middle of the '10 season, having already logged almost 1300 big league games behind the plate between the regular season and playoffs. My initial reaction to the signing of Bay is reflective of my thoughts on the team as a whole: "Well that's nice and all, but unless Bay can catch, play first, second, right, pitch the 7th and 8th and start on the mound three days a week, it doesn't really matter, because they're still not going anywhere."

Which brings us back to Minaya. Why aren't the Mets going anywhere? Well, he's been given ample time and certainly ample resources to build a winner in New York, and he hasn't done so yet. His ridiculous signing of Luis Castillo continues to kill the Mets, as the very capable and very wanting to play in New York Orlando Hudson remains just out of reach to the Mets because they can't rid themselves of Castillo's awful contract. Speaking of awful contracts, Minaya bought into the false hope presented by Oliver Perez and re-singed the erratic lefthander to a big contract prior to the '09 season instead of using that money for Derek Lowe. The result is an undependable, erratic pitcher making way too much money, and the secondary consequence of the Perez signing is that prime free agents like John Lackey must be passed over for the likes of Lackey's former teammate, the hard-throwing and ever-rehabbing Kelvim Escobar.

Not all of the Mets' misery is Minaya's fault. He could not have forseen that J.J. Putz would blow up in his face, and the Mets farm system hasn't produced players nearly as good as the public has been told since Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. (Gregg Jefferies, Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher anyone?)

But a lot of the mess does rest squarely with Minaya. His team's most obvious needs are continually ignored, and he's consitently invested and bet on players with shaky injury history, makeup, or both. His team has no killers, no guys that will stand up, grab a bull by the horns and kill it with his bare hands, but he does have plenty of guys that would watch that guy kill a bull only to run out from hiding to dance over the carcass.

And that all falls on Minaya. He's remained the teflon GM forever (he is the baseball genius that traded Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore to get Bartolo Colon to the Expos), but that teflon is about to turn to fly paper if the Mets don't turn it around quick. Carlos Beltran's surgery, and subsequent absence from the lineup to start the season, are not great signs for the Mets or their infamous Mr. Minaya.

Big Mac Comes Clean... So What's Your Problem?

2010-01-12T13:31:00.000-08:00

As predicted by many, including myself in this space, on Monday Mark McGwire finally did come clean about his use of steroids and HGH throughout his professional baseball career. McGwire initially issued a statement to the AP on Monday afternoon, then sat down for an hour-long interview with Bob Costas that was broadcast live on the MLB Network later in the evening.

If you listen long enough to discourse about any public figure who has committed a major transgression, you will hear that America is a "forgiving country" or some variation on this theme. So why in the world are so many people so upset that McGwire's confession and apology are not enough?

Very few talking heads are giving the Big Red One a whole lot of credit for the steps he took yesterday, with Joe Posnanski being one notable exception. Why is that?

Mark McGwire is clearly a very shy and private person. He was never especially outgoing with the media and public as a player, and while many castigate him for disappearing after the infamous March 2005 Congressional hearings, let's not forget he had disappeared for the three and a half years after he retired and before he was summoned to Capitol Hill too.

McGwire became the first player out of hundreds or thousands who used steroids during the * era to do what he did, which was admit it, apologize for it and do so on live television, unrehearsed. Ken Caminiti was quoted in a magazine. Andy Pettitte, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez made no such admissions until they were caught. We all may have had suspicions about McGwire, we may have "known," but we did not know until yesterday. And we found out not because his chemist's office was raided or because his trainer got busted. We found out because he told us.

I watched McGwire's entire interview with Bob Costas, my wife even bringing dinner to me on the couch so I could remain and watch. In that hour, I saw a contrite man, one who was visibly broken on live national television because of sorrow and regret about decisions he had made years prior. I saw a man who took the extraordinary step of calling Roger Maris' widow to apologize for what he'd done, and wore the burden of a man who knew he had disappointed and let down millions.

So why are many media types, and fans at large, treating him like he's trying one of the diversionary tactics we've seen from many other accused, be it outright lying, denial of what you were taking or 'knowing usage', or my personal favorite, forgetting how to speak a language you are known to be fluent in. McGwire did none of this. He took sole responsibility for what he did, casting no blaming arrows or pointed fingers at anyone but himself.

There were parts of the interview that didn't track. He said he didn't want to look like Arnold Schwarzenegger or Lou Ferrigno, but we all kind of thought he did in the '90s. He said no one knew about his use until Monday morning, but also said that Rep. Tom Davis, Chairman of the Congressional Committee McGwire had testitifed in front of, did in fact know that McGwire used and wanted to testify as such. McGwire appeared nervous, as seen in his several mistakes in syntax and conjugation. But this was live TV, a real apology, and there was no script.

I think part of the reason (maybe the main reason) that he's under fire today is because he would not say that the drugs had enhanced his performance. And you know what? He probably believes that. To be an athlete at that level, to be at the very top of the heap among the very best players in the world carries with it a certain degree of self-confidence that must border on arrogance, if not plunge right in. Find me one elite athlete who doesn't think like that. Michael Jordan? Tiger Woods? I don't think so. The mindset is part of what makes them great. If McGwire believes he would have been as great as he was without the drugs, and he said otherwise, doesn't that make him a fraud? Would we rather have a phony that sounds like we want him to than someone who is sincere and truthful? I wouldn't.

The other element that bothers me about media and fans alike complaining about McGwire's apology is that we are all complicit in this wrong, and we all participated in it. Did Tom Verducci, Ken Rosenthal or Tim Kurkjian or a host of others in the media think something was going on in the game back in 1998? Yes they did. And what did they do about it? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Not a thing. So for them to have the audacity to sit on TV and criticize McGwire for how he apologed is absurd. The baseball media have no moral high ground to criticize McGwire for using steroids when they were complicit in it, and they certainly have no high ground to criticize his apology. When is the media going to apologize for laughing at jokes about syringes and expanding hat sizes back acne? When is the media going to take responsibility for what it didn't do and pay the price for it, the same way McGwire and others have?

And who else is just as guilty and stained by this era? You and I are. I remember being in high school on September 8th, 1998, watching the Cardinals- Cubs game in my family room as McGwire drove a Steve Trachsel pitch over the left field fence for his 62nd home run. A Phillies fan, I didn't care at all who won the game, but as the ball cleared the fence at Busch Stadium, I leapt up from the couch jubilantly at the sight of baseball history. Even as a teenager I had suspiscions about McGwire and Sosa, and several others throughout baseball. And you know what. I didn't care. The events were too big, the games were too fun, and hey, how could I really know for sure.

If you were a baseball fan in 1998 and you say you didn't have similar feelings to mine, there's a word for that: lying. You loved the home run race, you thought something might be off, and you didn't care. No one did.

And so as Mark McGwire, the one time *home run champ and real-life embodiment of Paul Bunyan, wept for a national audience, I felt a little bit of his pain. Because I knew I helped contribute, even if only very, very slightly, to putting him in that seat on that night.

And you did too.

Don't you dare criticize the apology for a wrong you helped commit.

The Hall Calls Hawk

2010-01-06T19:36:00.000-08:00

Ok, I lied about the Phillies... But I will get to that soon. The BBWAA announced the results of its annual Hall of Fame voting this afternoon, with Andre Dawson the only candidate earning the requisite 75% of the votes required for induction in 2010.

If you read my earlier Hall of Fame post, you'll find that I voted for five men in a mock election through the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, none of whom is Andre Dawson.

By all accounts, 'The Hawk' is a good man, and certainly a worthy candidate for the Hall. He did not make my ballot, but he didn't make a lot of other either. And I'm certainly not bitter about Dawson being elected, even though I didn't support his candidacy.

What I do hope, though, is that Dawson's election gives us a bit of perspective on players who played in the 1980's and early 90's whose numbers don't like quite as good next to the offensive explosion of the late 90's and 2000's. Barry Larkin and Tim Raines, I'm talking about you, and to a lesser extent, Dale Murphy.

In any event, congrats to Andre Dawson as the lone player elected to the Hall of Fame in 2010 by the BBWAA.

The 2010 Phillies: Roy Halladay in; Cliff Lee Out

2010-01-04T22:35:00.000-08:00

For my first post in the new year, I thought it would make sense to look at what the entity that will occupy more of my baseball time than any other, the Philadelphia Phillies, will look like in 2010. They've had an eventful offseason thus far to be sure. But is that a good thing?

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. took the reigns from Pat Gillick right after the 2008 season. Gillick is a longtime baseball man who was known to grow complacent with his teams, especially in-season, and thus earned the moniker 'Stand Pat.' This is one nickname that is unlikely to ever stick to Amaro.

Coming off a World Series title in 2008, Amaro let the longest tenured Phillie in Pat Burrell, the man who led the parade down Broad Street, walk away in free agency, opting for an older and lefthanded hitting Raul Ibanez. While some derided the move at the time, 2009 clearly showed Amaro to be in the right, getting much more production from Ibanez than Burrell gave Tampa Bay for roughly the equivalent salary of what Burrell would have commanded in Philadelphia.

While Burrell might have been a popular player with the Phillies, he was nowhere near as important to the team's success as Cliff Lee was in 2009. Lee was dominant in all three rounds of the playoffs, and won both of the Phillies triumphs in the World Series against the Yankees. So what did Amaro do? He traded his best pitcher away and brought in what is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball.

And I loved it. I loved it for no other reason than it took tremendous onions for Ruben Amaro to pull off a deal like this one. Maybe even a double order, if you'll engage my inner Bill Raftery. I loved it because Amaro saw a chance to make his already good team even better for the next four years. And I loved that it put the Phillies in the headlines in December, long after most of the ink on the 2009 season had been dried.

There was much consternation in the land at the Phillies losing Lee, and I understand that. There are a few factors at play here. First, Lee was the last thing any of us saw, so naturally a lot of people will associate that performance with Lee and grow a sentamentality to him. Secondly, the ace swap was actually two separate deals, with the Phillies giving up prospects to get Halladay and then trading Lee to get reasonably close prospects back. Many in the area squawked that the Phils should have kept Lee and Halladay, budget or not. At $140 million, the payroll is what it is. Those who tell you just hold onto Lee say 'well it's only $150 million then.' Ok, so then it's only $160 million, $185 million, or a government bailout of Wall Street. It's also pretty easy to say when its not your $140 million.

The other payroll point I've made to fans is this... do you like Ryan Howard? Shane Victorino? Jayson Werth? Cole Hamels? Well, they're not going to be here if all of your money is tied up in two pitchers.

Assuming the team could not financially afford to keep both pitchers long term, trading for Halladay and signing him for three more years is better than having Lee for one, and then watching helplessley as the Yankees throw the GDP of Luxembourg at him and he signs there as a free agent. I don't want to hear about getting draft picks to replace the lost prospects either. Hamels was drafted in 2002 and debuted in 2006. Utley was drafted in 2000 and became a full-time starter in '05. That doesn't help a team ready to win now and for the next 2-4 years.

Beyond all of these considerations, there is this... Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee. Period. End of story. For his career, Doc Halladay has a better ERA, winning percentage, ERA+, WHIP, and H/9 IP than Lee. Halladay has led the league in innings three times, and led in complete games five times. Lee's only significant league-leading statistic was ERA in his Cy Young winning 2008 season. Halladay has a Cy Young, too.

And don't forget, Halladay's numbers have been compiled pitching in the American League East, where in his career, Halladay has made the most starts against (in order) the Red Sox (41), the Yankees (37) and Rays (34). Lee's most common opponenets are the Royals (22), White Sox (21), and Tigers (20). Halladay's most frequent opponents represented the AL in the World Series seven times this decade, with Lee's representing the AL twice. (The only holdout being the 2002 Angels).

I'm not trying to disparage Cliff Lee. Not at all. He was phenomenal for the Phillies, and was a huge piece of them winning their second straight pennant for the first time ever. But let's be furrealfurreal (said "for real for real") for a second. Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee.

And because of that, the 2010 Phillies are set up to be better than the 2009 edition.

Coming up in my next post, I will examine the rest of the Phils' moves so far this offseason...

And We're Back... Hall of Fame, Anyone?

2009-12-31T15:34:00.000-08:00

On this last day of 2009, I do recognize that as a baseball blogger I have been almost completely missing in action during December. Well see, I got married on December 5th, and was pretty busy before and after that, then I had to play catch up with everything I didn't do while I was getting married and away on my honeymoon, then I had to get ready for the Holidays which I had done nothing for because, well, I was getting married. But now I'm back. I will cover the major baseball related events since my last post on December 1st, including the big transactions, the moves made by the Phillies, and a few other tidbits. However, I first want to turn my attention to the 2010 Hall of Fame class.

Earlier this week, Joe Posnanski wrote an interesting piece about the Hall, and a system devised by the Baseball Think Factory called The Hall of Merit. It's worth reading, and sets the stage well for the inevitable debate that occurs this time of year.

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA), I had the opportunity a couple of weeks back to cast a vote for who I would elect to the Hall of Fame in 2010. You can find the story detailing the results of the BBA election here. From the BBA, only Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven received enough support for enshrinement.

I cast my vote for five men. Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Barry Larkin and Mark McGwire. Let's look at the case for each.

Robert Alomar- Alomar played for seven teams over 17 seasons between 1988 and 2004, and was perhaps the finest combination of hitting and fielding that the second sack has ever seen. A career .300 hitter (on the nose), Alomar was named to 12 All-Star games, won 10 Gold Gloves (most for a 2B) and four silver sluggers (second most for a 2B). He is in the top 100 in Major League history in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, walks, steals, extra base hits, and sacrifice flies. He was also a member of back to back World Series champions with the Blue Jays in 1992-93. Detractors point to an ugly spitting incident with John Hirschbeck in 1996 and his relatively rapid decline upon joining the Mets in 2002. However, his 12 consecutive All-Star Game appearances from 1990-2001 illustrate his greatness over a prolonged period, and his early decline could be due at least in part to breaking in young, playing over 140 games as a 20-year old for the Padres in 1988. Alomar should get in comfortably, but not overwhelmingly.

Bert Blyleven- Perhaps one of the more hotly contested candidates of recent vintage, with opinions strong on both sides of the argument. I voted for Blyleven because I believe that he is equal, if not superior, to other pitchers who are already immortalized in Cooperstown. I'm not here to debate the Hall of Fame merits of Don Sutton or Gaylord Perry, but if they're Hall of Famers, so is Blyleven. The red-headed Dutchman is probably best known for having what many consider to be the greatest curveball of all time. One former player who had faced Blyleven told me that his curveball seemed to start above your head and then hammer down until the catcher caught it down by your knees. But one great pitch does not a Hall of Famer make (even though, as Posnanski pointed out, Candy Cummings is in the HoF for inventing the curveball, even though he probably didn't invent it... but I digress). Detractors will point out that Blyleven made only two All-Star Games, never led his league in wins or ERA, never finished better than third in Cy Young voting, and while he ranks 27th in wins, he also ranks 10th in losses. Also, as strikeout pitchers are known to, Blyleven gave up a ton of home runs, including an astounding 50 in 1986. I'll tell you that there are numbers, and then there are NUMBERS. For a pitcher, wins, losses, saves (and more) are just numbers. The NUMBERS for a pitcher are strikeouts, H/IP and (for a starter) complete games and shutouts, because these statistics shows dominance and the overpowering of competition. Blyleven is fifth all-time in strikeouts, allowed 338 fewer hits than innings pitched, completed 242 games (while most of the 90 pitchers ahead of him pitched in the early 1900s) and ranks ninth all-time with 60 shutouts. On his page on baseball-reference.com, of the 10 pitchers who Blyleven's similarity scores match up with, eight are in the Hall of Fame, with the two holdouts being lefthanders Jim Kaat and Tommy John, two guys who pitched forever and compiled a lot of numbers because of it. Blyleven's vote percentages have risen each year he's been on the ballot, and I think this year he finally gets in.

Tim Raines- A consummate leadoff hitter, Tim Raines suffered the severe misfortune of playing at a time when the best leadoff hitter anyone has ever seen, Rickey Henderson, was running roughshod over the American League. But had it not been for Henderson, many fans and media alike would have been forced to really examine and appreciate what a great player Raines was. Besides Henderson, another factor that worked against Henderson was playing most of his career in Montreal, away from the bright lights and big city of New York, Philadelphia or Chicago. I'll freely admit that Raines' career numbers look fairly pedestrian. But kept in context of what he was- and what he was supposed to do- I believe he is a Hall of Famer, and his numbers support that. Raines was a leadoff man, which made his jobs threefold- get on base, create havoc and score runs. Raines his .294 for his career, hitting over .300 eight times and winning the NL batting title in 1986. He stole 808 career bases, fifth all-time (behind four Hall of Famers), and stole at least 70 every year between 1981 and 1986. He also had six 100 plus run seasons, including leading the NL twice. Raines made the All-Star team seven times, showing his standing among his contemporaries. Again, his overall numbers are not necessarily overwhelming, but he does overwhelmingly pass the eye test, which is why I included him on my ballot. Based on his previous support, I'd say Raines won't get in, but his numbers do seem to be trending upward.

Barry Larkin- In many ways, I think Larkin is similar to Tim Raines in that our perception of him was not as great as it should have been because there was a guy in the other league who garnered all the headlines. In Raines' case it was Rickey Henderson, and in Larkin's, its Cal Ripken Jr. Not that Henderson and Ripken weren't great, but Raines and Larkin were great too. The 1995 NL MVP, Larkin was a Cincinnatti kid who played his whole career for the hometown Reds. Larkin was named to 12 All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves and took home nine Silver Slugger Awards. One of the problems that I believe people have in evaluating a player in a historical context (such as Hall of Fame balloting) is remembering to evaluate the player against the other players of his time. When seeing such offensive dynamos of the 2000s such as Jimmy Rollins, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter, it's easy to see the numbers that Larkin compiled and think of them as nothing special. But look at the Silve Slugger award. The four guys I just mentioned, all premier offensive players this decade, have won eight Silver Sluggers combined. Larkin has nine by himself. Which means, he was the best offensive shortstop at his position in the NL nine times. Nine. No one has ever won more than 10 (although I'm sure A-Rod will win his 11th at some point). Barry Larkin was the best offensive shortstop in the National League for over a decade. And, as his three Gold Gloves attest, he was also an outstanding defender. Barry Larkin is a Hall of Famer. This being his first year of eligibility, I don't think Larkin will be enshrined in 2010, but I do expect that he will be someday.

Mark McGwire- We had to save this one for last, didn't we? I don't think there actually is much debate about whether or not he belongs in the Hall if you consider what he did on the field. Sure, he was one dimensional, but so was Reggie Jackson and a host of other power hitters. Ryan Howard is one-dimensional, but you want to tell me that if his career trajectory stays the same, he's not a Hall of Famer? Didn't think so. By way of review, McGwire hit 583 home runs in his career (8th all-time), led the league four times, made 12 All-Star teams and even won a Gold Glove in 1990. He also broke Roger Maris' single-season home run mark when he hit 70 in 1998, and melted before your very eyes in front of Congress in March of 2005. That's the long and the short of it. The debate since that infamous day on Capitol Hill is whether or not McGwire (and others of his era) belong in the Hall. I say yes. Do you know McGwire took steroids? I mean KNOW. Do you? Did you see him do it? Did he tell you he did it? If not, you don't know. By the same token, you don't know that Barry Bonds did (as most people believe), or that Ken Griffey Jr. didn't (as most people also believe). To me, the Hall of Fame debate comes down to this. What do we actually, verifiably, undoubtedly know to be true about players and performances in the steroid era. The ONLY answer- the only one- is what happened on the field of play. We get into dangerous territory when we start to decide that we know more than that. It would be easy for a player who used steroids but has not been suspected of steroid use to slide into the Hall because the voters hold up some arbitrary standard of what they think they know. Maybe that has already happened. But I can assure you, if voting is done based upon anything except what happened on the field, it will. And if we vote on what happened on the field Mark McGwire is a Hall of Famer. Period. End of discussion. If we find out more (such as a player like Jose Canseco, who admitted steroid usage) we can have a different discussion. But as of now, we must vote based upon what happened on the field. Having said that, and given his level of support in the 23% range thus far, I highly doubt McGwire will get in this year. As the hitting coach for the Cardinals, Big Mac will have to face the media at some point, and if he comes clean about what he did or didn't do, his chances may improve.

So how will all of this shake out? Stay tuned, as the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce its' voting results on January 6th. But if it were up to me, I'd have Alomar, Blyleven, Raines, Larkin and McGwire start writing their acceptance speeches for this summer in Cooperstown.

The Lukewarm Stove

2009-12-01T23:43:00.000-08:00

I'm getting married on Saturday, so as you might expect, I've been kept from blogging on the baseball offseason lately. Especially since nothing of consequence has happpened yet.

I was very excited for the start of the Hot Stove League, officially kicking off with the start of free agency on November 20th. However, to date, pretty much nothing has happened. Where is all the action?

Maybe moving past the deadline to offer arbitration will enable the market to start to settle a bit. Who knows. But when the most impactful signings so far are Andruw Jones signing with the White Sox and/or Billy Wagner reportedly joining the Braves, you know it's a slow moving free agency period.

Given the slowness of the market, it's only a matter of time before Donald Fehr begins beating the drum of collusion amongst the owners. While you can't put anything past the owners, especially since collusion has happened before, I don't think that's what is happening here. I think there are just a lot of teams that are trying to be very fiscally conservative in a tough economy, and so the number of teams with money to spend is even lower than normal. Can you blame a team like Detroit or Tampa for not ponying up for a middling player?

- Bud Selig says he'll retire when his contract expires after the 2012 season. We'll see. We've heard similar pronouncements before, only to be disappointed when the Commish decides to continue on. New blood in the Commissioner's Office cannot come soon enough. No matter how much he tries to downplay it, Selig's tenure will be defined by the steroid mess he oversaw. His reputation will be further sullied if a new commissioner comes in and makes progressive, needed changes, such as expanding replay, doing something to close the gap between the haves and have nots, or creating actual trust between the labor and management sides.

- The Red Sox are toying with the idea of moving Dustin Pedroia to shortstop. I'm going to first guess that move and say that even if he can do it, it will diminish his abilities and wear him out too much. Pedroia is an MVP caliber player at second, may become David Eckstein at short. I don't think he's got enough arm to be really good on the other side of second base. Additionally, I don't believe in filling a hole on your club by creating another. The Sox usually do the right thing when it comes to their on-field decisions, so it will be interesting to see this one play itself out.

-Finally, this is why you can't use statistical measures to tell you what's going on in the game of baseball. This may pass the statistical test, but it fails the eye test miserably. If you watched Cole Hamels at all in 2008 and 2009, you know that this analysis has zero credibility.

Award Season

2009-11-18T20:25:00.000-08:00

Before the official start of free agency on Friday, the BBWAA has already given out a few of the major awards for the 2009 season. Let's recap the awards given so far, and I'll provide my own opinions too.

American League Rookie of the Year-
Andrew Bailey handily took home top honors after an outstanding season with the A's in which he earned 26 saves and posted a 1.84 ERA. I would have voted for Rick Porcello, who in my opinion has the biggest upside of the lot, and pitched like a stud as a 20-year old for a team that almost went to the playoffs. Bailey made the All-Star game for the not-so-playoff contending A's, and now looks to avoid the similar regression experienced by the last two A's ROY winners, Huston Street and Bobby Crosby.
My Pick: Rick Porcello, Detroit. Although, in the final analysis, I don't think I realized how good of a season Bailey had.

National League Rookie of the Year-
Chris Coghlan won the NL Rookie of the Year award, besting Philadelphia's J.A. Happ in a much closer vote. Coghlan wasn't called up to the Majors until May, but wasted no time in making an impact, hitting .321 with 31 doubles in 128 games. Ironically, a good portion of his production came against the Phillies, against whom he hit .432 with an on-base percentage over .500 in 2009.
My Pick. J.A. Happ, Philadelphia. He was the most consistent starter in 2009 for a team that won the pennant. Even though the vote does not take the playoffs into consideration, he was wire-to-wire the best pitcher for the defending champs.

American League Cy Young-
Zach Greinke lapped the field, taking 25 of 28 first place votes. I'm happy for this young man, who battled back from an anxiety disorder in early 2006 to shed the 'bust' label and establish himself as a legitimate front of the rotation horse. Despite playing for the moribund Royals, Greinke led the league in ERA, WHIP and HR/9 innings. In 229.1 innings, Greinke struck out 242, walked 51, gave up only 195 hits and allowed 11 home runs. The only thing that would have hurt him was having only 16 wins, but wins is a stat often beyond the pitcher's control, particularly on a bad team
My Pick: Greinke. He is the AL version of Tim Lincecum, without the hair or avatar.

AL/NL Manager of the Year-
Mike Scioscia and Jim Tracy. When I worked with Delaware's baseball team in 2007, our head coach Jim Sherman won the conference's Coach of the Year award. One thing he told me about that award that I think is very true is that Coach or Manager of the Year awards don't honor the individual so much as the team. This principle is very true in both the AL and NL recipients of the Manager of the Year award for 2009. Scioscia led his Angels team to a fifth division title in six year despite losing their record-setting closer from 2008 in Francisco Rodriguez, as well as perenial All-Star Mark Teixeira. Additionally, they had to battle through the unthinkable loss of 22-year old pitcher Nick Adenhardt in the season's first week. Despite all of the obstacles, Scoscia's crew kept it together and won the AL West handily over Texas. Tracy wasn't even employed by the Rockies when the 2009 season kicked off, but took over a team that was 18-28 in May when Clint Hurdle was let go. From that point forward, Tracy guided the Rockies to a record of 74-42 in securing Colorado's second playoff berth in three seasons.
My Picks: Scioscia and Tracy. Who else? Joe Girardi only had to roll the ball out on the field and let his team play. Ron Gardenhire brought the Twins back from a big hole, but without the adversity the Angels faced. In the NL, Charlie Manuel and Joe Torre had the best two teams, and Tony LaRussa probably loses some credit because of who good his pitching coach Dave Duncan is.

NL Cy Young-
Despite having an admitted man crush on Tim Lincecum, I fully understand the merits of voting for one of the two aces from St. Louis. Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter were as good a 1-2 punch as there is in all of baseball, and largely on the strength of their right arms did the Cardinals waltz to the NL Central crown. Carpenter led the NL in ERA, while Wainwright led in starts, wins and innings, and Lincecum led in strikeouts, complete games and shutouts. To me, the statistical categories Wainwright led in are compiler stats and not nearly as impressive as Carpenter's or Lincecum's. In a lot of ways, my decision here is like the Gold Glove awards--- I know who the top candidates are, and I don't care what the numbers say, I know what I saw watching each of these guys throughout the season. Wainwright and Carpenter were great, don't get me wrong. But I never got the sense with them that if either was on top of his game, you just had no shot. Lincecum had that. When Tiny Tim is rolling, just pack up and go home, because his combination of fastball, change and curve is nasty. Lincecum is also the reigning NL Cy Young champ, and if you want the crown, you've got to beat the champ, not play him to a draw. I don't think Wainwright or Carpenter did that, so I'll keep my vote with Lincecum. I also think he will win, if for no other reason, because Carpenter and Wainwright will split votes. We shall see.
My Pick: Lincecum.

AL Most Valuable Player-
In what I think is the toughest of the post-season awards to call, the AL MVP award for 2009 blends a very different group of candidates. I'll limit mine to three. I think the most deserving candidates for 2009 are Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Joe Mauer. Jeter had the highest batting average (.366) of any shortstop as old as he is since Honus Wagner the season after Noah landed the Ark. He also hit 18 homers and drove in 66 from the leadoff spot, from which he also scored over 100 runs. He played well defensively (probably not as well as the Gold Glove he got suggests), and was the ever present heart of the best team in baseball in 2009. He also played the full season, which neither Mauer nor A-Rod can say. Mauer had an unbelievable season for a catcher, leading the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and then of course OPS. He put up 28 homers and 96 RBI for a Minnesota team that needed every single one of them to overtake Detroit in a one-game playoff, and he did this all without former MVP Justin Morneau in the lineup for most of the second half. Mauer was also solid behind the dish, working with a young Twins staff and earning his second Gold Glove. A-Rod is an interesting case. He didn't make the All-Star team, didn't win a Gold Glove, hit under .300. But, he hit 30 home runs and 100 RBI in only 124 games played after returning from hip surgery on May 8th. The other factor to consider is that with Rodriguez out, the Yankees were sputtering along at 14-15, looking up at Boston. Once A-Rod returned, the Yankees went 89-44 the rest of the way, cruising to a division crown.
My Pick: Mauer. If you took A-Rod or Jeter away from the Yankees in 2009, they're probably still a playoff team. If you took Mauer away from the Twins in 2009, they'd probably win about 70 games.

NL Most Valuable Player-
Albert Pujols. He had this award wrapped up by August 1st. Ryan Howard should finish second. That's all there really is to say about that.
My Pick: Pujols

This and That After the GM Meetings

2009-11-12T13:29:00.000-08:00

With the GM meetings in Chicago now behind us, here are some predictions for the Hot Stove...

- The Yankees will sign John Lackey and either Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. Is it even fun to be a Yankee fan and just buy everybody?

- Detroit will unload at least one top-shelf player. They probably don't want to, but if your city is featured on the cover of Time because of how economically depressed it is, that can't be good news for the payroll of the baseball team.

- Roy Halladay gets traded, but not to where you think. I'll say he doesn't go to New York, Boston or Philadelphia, and I'll suggest that he does go to Texas, St. Louis or the Angels. But the Jays can't hold him any longer.

- The Phillies will sign Adrian Beltre and a relief pitcher who has closed before, such as Mike Gonzalez or Fernando Rodney

- The Orioles, Nationals, Royals and Pirates will do nothing of substance

- Milton Bradley will go back to the Rangers for pretty much nothing

- Pedro Martinez will pull another Roger Clemens and decides he'll be ready to pitch in July. Maybe even in Philadelphia again.

- At least two more high profile names will get snared by the infamous "list" of players who failed steroid survey testing in 2003.

- Keep an eye on http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ and http://www.baseballrumormill.com/ for all of your Hot Stove needs

In other news...

- What is it about the Angels? It seems every year they lose a high-profile free agent, plug the gap and win a bunch of games. But why do they lose guys? They're a big money team, but they didn't seem real interested in keeping Francisco Rodriguez last offseason, and might well lose John Lackey and Chone Figgins this year. Weird. Their continued success is a tribute to their farm system, GM Tony Reaggins and manager Mike Scioscia, however.

- Jim Riggleman is now officially the manager of the Nationals. Yawn.

- Brad Lidge may have been ailing more than he let on. Lidge was a stand-up guy through the entire nightmare that was his 2009 season, and refused to make any excuses for his ineffectiveness. However, it now appears that he toed the line between "hurt" and "injured" all year, and may have been too "injured" to contribute like he could have. At the same time, given the Phillies lack of alternatives, it's hard to get on the guy for going out and giving it all he had to try to help the team.

- The American League and National League Gold Glove awards were announced earlier this week, with few surprises on either list. As usual, there was handwringing from many SABR-metric 'experts,' most of whom trot out statistics the vast majority of even avid baseball fans have not heard of and wouldn't understand. I agree with the general consensus that the Gold Glove vote is not taken seriously enough by those that vote for it, but let's settle down on the indignation that someone like Orlando Hudson won.

- The link above about handwringing takes you to a piece by Rob Neyer, who I like. While I like him, I disagree with him a lot, and in arguments like this, he seems to put no stock in actual events, relying solely upon numbers. I don't care what Chase Utley's defensive metrics say. I don't. Not even a little bit. I saw him play every game this year, and I know he was not a Gold Glove second baseman. Period. I also know that David Wright's metrics in 2007 may have been better than Jimmy Rollins', but again, I don't care. I watched every game in September of 07 for both the Phillies and the Mets. And guess what? Rollins was an MVP, Wright wasn't (I'm being polite in describing that El Foldo by the Mets). But don't tell Rob Neyer. He insisted that Wright was the MVP. Again, I like Neyer, but we've got to have a sane discussion about the merits of statistics versus what your eyes tell you. My eyes tell me Chase Utley isn't a Gold Glover, and they tell me you're not an MVP if your team blows a seven game division lead with 17 to play. Period.

- Because of his new role as the Cardinals hitting coach, sooner or later Mark McGwire is going to have to face the media and questions regarding allegations of his steroid use. McGwire, of course, diappeared from public view after his Congressional testimony in 2005 where he refused to talk about the past. Having a sense of McGwire as a decent man, my guess is that if he is assured by lawyers he will not find himself in legal trouble, Big Mac will come clean about what or may not have happened in the past he has been so reluctant to talk about.

- Finally, McGwire's former friendly home run rival Sammy Sosa is white now.

Baseball Bloggers Alliance

2009-11-10T21:33:00.000-08:00

Over the past few months, a new baseball website has emerged in an effort to combine the efforts of baseball enthusiasts in one easily accessable place. And that place, I am pleased to report, is the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, whereby you can find up to date information from multiple sources on any team in the Major Leagues, as well as several blogs that deal with baseball in general. Included as part of the Alliance, of course, is your humble narrator.

Perhaps it is the 21st century version of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) without the snobbery and stringent membership requirements.

One of the most entertaining aspects of the site is reading the clever names of some of the blogs out there, including Crashburn Alley, which deals with the Phillies, Camden Crazies about the Orioles, or True Grich about the Angels. Either way, check out some of the other blogs pulled together on this one site, especially if you're looking for commentary and updates on any team in particular. I know I will.

Onto the Offseason

2009-11-09T13:03:00.000-08:00

Now that the World Series has finally ended, the baseball calendar moves into the stage collectively known as the Hot Stove League. Several other on and off-field moves have taken place already that will effect the 2010 season and beyond...

- San Diego hired Jed Hoyer as its general manager, filling the hole left by longtime GM Kevin Towers. Hoyer is part of the new breed of baseball executives, a young individual who never played in the majors and cut his teeth in various front offices on his way up the ladder. The 36-year old spent the last several years working along side Theo Epstein in Boston. Hoyer had interviewed for both the Pirates and Nationals GM positions, and has long been seen as a GM in waiting.

- I'd be surprised if Towers doesn't find another high execuvtive slot if he wants one. He had a pretty successful 15-year run in San Diego, and still is a fairly young man.

- Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan will return to the Cardinals in 2010, after speculation arose that one or both would leave, potentially for Cincinatti or Houston. Of course, the bigger news in all this is that Mark McGwire has returned from his self-imposed exile of the last several years, and will be the hitting coach for the Cardinals in 2010. Some see this as a terrible thing, decrying the absurdity that McGwire be allowed back into the game. Why? He (probably) took steroids, just like hundreds of other players in the time period in which he played. He didn't lie about it. And I don't buy that McGwire has been in hiding because of the infamous Congressional hearings in 2005 either. McGwire never was comfortable in the spotlight, and seemed content to do his job and be left alone. As a hitting coach, I wouldn't expect that to change now.

- The Marlins got an early start on their annual trading away of useful pieces, sending Jeremy Hermida to Boston for two young lefty pitchers. I'm not sure how much Hermida will play there, but alot of that will depend on what happens with leftfiedl (Jason Bay is a free agent) and DH (will Big Papi be back or not).

- Tampa sent Akinori Iwamura to Pittsburgh for relief pitcher Jesse Chavez. Yawn. Chavez will appear in 65-75 games for Tampa out of the pen, Iwamura will play a decent half-year in Pittsburgh before being traded to a contender that needs middle infield help around the deadline. Why do the Pirates even bother? Iwamura is set to be their highest paid player in 2010, at $4.5 million. If you know nothing else about baseball economics, know this: if your highest paid player is scheduled to make p$4.5 million, you're probably going to stink.

- The Phillies somewhat surprisingly declined their 2010 option on third baseman Pedro Feliz. Feliz is maddening at the plate, but provides an outstanding glove at a premium defensive position for a relatively low cost. Rumors abound that the Phillies are now in the market for Adrian Beltre (who I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole) or Chone Figgins (who I wouldn't pay what he'll be looking for). The Phillies, publicly at least, have not ruled out Feliz returning in 2010, but at terms more advantageous to the club.

- The General Managers' meetings take place in Chicago this week. Several deals may or may not go down, but there's sure to be a lot of dialogue. And in baseball where there's dialogue, there's fire. Just enough to warm the good old Hot Stove...

World Series Wrap-Up

2009-11-05T23:10:00.000-08:00

I have to admit that I'm disappointed. I don't mean because the Phillies lost (although I am certainly disappointed by that), but rather that this series was just kind of mediocre, that it just kind of happened. The Yankees and Phillies had clearly been the best teams in their respective leagues all year, and I expected an intense, thrilling, clean, well-played series on both sides. But we didn't get that.

I expected a series where both teams would put their best foot forward, and at the end you would say "Wow, they both deserve to win and it's a shame one of these teams has to lose." Kind of like the Cardinals-Steelers Super Bowl back in February. But as a baseball fan, I feel a little cheated that we didn't get that from two great teams. The Yankees won, and were definitely the better team in the Series, but they were very beatable. Who had a great series? Before Hideki Matsui driving in six runs against Pedro Martinez, a pitcher he has owned, Chase Utley most likely would have won MVP honors for the losing squad. Just a weird series in that regard.

Onto my final thoughts about the 2009 World Series...

- Looking at the two lineups, and the two teams, it's hard to see an advantage. Look how they matched up. You can find a comparable player in both lineups. Ryan Howard (.174, 1 HR, 3 RBI) matches with Mark Teixeira (.136/1/3). Raul Ibanez (.304/1/4) and A-Rod (.250/1/6). Jayson Werth (.263/2/3) and Jorge Posada (.263/0/5). Chase Utley (.286/5/8) and Hideki Matsui (.615/3/8 in 13 at-bats). Carlos Ruiz (.333/1/2) owned Nick Swisher (.133/1/1) and Robinson Cano (.136/0/1).

- So how did the Yankees win? What is the difference? The top of the orders. Jimmy Rollins was .217 with 0 home runs, 2 RBI and 3 runs while Derek Jeter was .407/0/1/5. In the second slot in the order, Shane Victorino was .182/0/2/3 while Johnny Damon was .364/0/4/6. The top two guys in the lineup were always on base for the Yankees. They were rarely on base for the Phillies. And that made all the difference.

- It really is striking how close the correlation between Rollins scoring runs and the Phillies record is. In the 2009 playoffs, they were 7-0 when he scored a run, 2-6 when he didn't.

- On top of that, one of the games they won when Rollins didn't score was game four against Colorado, when Ryan Howard's two-run, two-out double gave the Phillies the win. Victorino scored the tying run, after reaching base on a fielder's choice that forced Rollins. So what I'm saying is, that's a run Rollins shoul've scored, but Victorino vultured. Which just furthers the point that the Phillies win when Rollins scores runs.

- The other major difference, obviously, was that the Yankees had Mariano Rivera, and the Phillies didn't.

- Both teams had their struggles in middle relief, and not surprisingly, whoever's middle relief struggled more lost that particular game.

- The umpiring in the World Series was much better than the earlier rounds of the playoffs, with the only real complaints coming in the form of the age-old griping about the strike zone.

- Alex Rodriguez is receiving plaudits for his post-season performance, but let's be real about it. Rodriguez struggled offensively and defensively in the Series, delivering five hits, eight strikeouts, and an error. He also looked whiny complaining about getting hit three times when the Phils were clearly trying to pound him in, and a few balls got away? The Phils weren't throwing at you, Mr. Rod, they were pitching you inside. And do you know why? Because you weren't getting any hits when they were doing it effectively.

- A common complaint amongst myself and many baseball fans is that that the Yankees buy championships, and Yankee fans retort that they have alot of players that are homegrown or developed in the Yankee system. Oh really? Let's examine that a bit further. We'll look at the World Series roster for both teams. In this matchup, we'll separate players that each team acquired because of wealth (scrap heap acquisitions have details in parenthesis)...

Homegrown/Scrap Heap:
Phillies: Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino (Rule 5 draft), Jayson Werth (non-tendered by LAD), Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre (waivers), Antonio Bastardo, J.A. Happ
Yankees: Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Melky Cabrera, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Brett Gardner, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke

Acquired through wealth:
Phillies: Eric Bruntlett, Ben Francisco, Matt Stairs, Raul Ibanez, Cliff Lee, Brad Lidge, Joe Blanton, Pedro Martinez
Yankees: Alex Roriguez, Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, A.J. Burnett, Damaso Marte, Andy Pettitte (was a Yankee, but only able to come back because of Yankee wealth), C.C. Sabathia, Hideki Matsui

Normal acquisitions (relatively average priced free agents, trades, etc):
Phillies: Pedro Feliz, Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park, Paul Bako
Yankees: Jerry Hairston Jr, Chad Gaudin, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske

First off, not to sound like an elitist, but if you don't know what 'Rule 5,' 'non-tenedered,' or 'waivers' means, you're not qualified to argue the point.

Yes, the Phillies and Yankees both have 12 of their 25 players who were developed and/or rose to their current level with their respective teams. But the Phillies 12 includes six All-Stars, six of eight everyday position players, three of their top five starting pitchers and their best setup man. The Yankee 12 includes three All-Stars, four of nine everyday position starters, one starting pitcher and the closer.

Meanwhile, the Yankees 'wealth' players include seven All-Stars, five of nine everyday position players and every starting pitching performance in the 2009 playoffs. The Phillies have benefitted from wealth also, no doubt, but have only two All-Star appearances combined (Lidge 2008, Ibanez 2009) out of their so-called 'wealth' players. Let it also be noted out of the Phillies 'wealth' players, six (Lidge, Bruntlett, Blanton, Stairs, Lee, Francisco) were acquired in trades that cost a total of 11 prospects (most of whom are middle to elite level) that the Phillies had drafted and developed, while the Yankees traded for three wealth players (Rodriguez, Swisher, Marte) that cost nine middling prospects and/or marginal major leaguers.

If you take away the 'wealth' players from the Phillies and the 'wealth' players from the Yankees, the Phillies are still in the playoffs, while the Yankees have a few great players and a bunch of nobodys.

I don't begrudge the Yankees for doing what they do. They have an advantage and use it, and why not? But don't tell me the Yankees built their team through scouting and development, because it just didn't happen.

- 151 days until Opening Day

Games Three Through Six

2009-11-04T23:52:00.000-08:00

Mea culpa. You got me. After posting my thoughts on game one, followed by a Phillies loss, then posting my thoughts on game two, followed by a Phillies loss, I intentionally decided to not write again until the end of the Series. Intellectually I know that my superstition had no impact on the outcome of the games, but as a fan, I can't help myself. But now we're back and ready to offer some analysis of the major issues from each game...

Game Three

- Andy Pettitte had nothing. He was hittable, he was on the ropes, and the Phils couldn't deliver the knockout blow. The Phils lefty trio of Utley-Howard-Ibanez went 0-12 with seven strikeouts on the game.

- Cole Hamels was shot. He had good stuff on the first trip through the order, then started to get hit around, which to me was indicative of having a tired arm. However, tired or not, he wilted in the fourth inning when he didn't get a call on a 3-2 pitch to Mark Teixeira, and followed this up by throwing a homer to A-Rod. This was similar to the LA series when he was upset about something that happened on the field and then threw a homer to Manny Ramirez. In the next inning, Hamels inexplicably threw sloppy curveballs to Nick Swisher and Pettitte, and he got hurt on both. Pettitte especially was puzzling, as he was swinging a 75-mph bat, meaning he had no chance of catching up to even a decent fastball. However, Pettitte got a curveball at around 74-mph that he could hit, and did, driving in Swisher to tie the game.

- Jayson Werth may have as much raw power as anyone in baseball, particularly against lefthanders. After a wrist injury ruined the early years of Werth's career, the 2009 All-Star is on the verge of superstardom. Just in time too, as he is a free agent after the 2010 season.

- The Phillies bullpen did a poor job of keeping the game in reach for the offense, allowing tack-on runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth.

- The Yankees got key contributions from several sources that had not produced much during the playoffs, namely Nick Swisher, Joba Chamberlain and Damaso Marte.

Game Four

- Never has the adage that baseball is a game of inches seem so clear as in game four. With the game tied 4-4, two outs and two strikes on Johnny Damon, Brad Lidge's slider was tipped by Damon and just barely fell out of the glove of Carlos Ruiz. Damon, of course, later singled and ignited a rally with two stolen bases on one play, leading to the Yanks 7-4 win.

- Lidge's stuff was outstanding, but after Damon's double-steal he was defeated. He looked scared to throw the slider and Teixeira teed off on a fastball to break the tie.

- Joba Chamberlain, if he's going to have a future as anything but a heartbreaker, has to close it down in the eighth inning. He gave up a bomb to a struggling, no plan Pedro Feliz that tied the game. Chamberlain is 24, the same age that Cole Hamels was World Series MVP and Tim Lincecum won a Cy Young. It's time to put up or shut up for Chamberlain.

- C.C. Sabathia was good again, but not special.

- If the Yankees are Pedro's daddy, Chase Utley is C.C.'s daddy, granddaddy, uncle, godfather, father-in-law, and everything else. Three bombs off him in the Series.

Game Five

- Cliff Lee wasn't as good as in game one, but he was still pretty good. Through seven innings, Lee allowed four hits and two runs before running out of gas against the top of the Yankee order in the eighth. For the 2009 playoffs, Lee was 4-0, struck out 33 and allowed only 27 hits in 40.1 innings of work. A masterful performance from the Phils new lefty ace.

- A.J. Burnett- not so much. Game five showed us 'bad' A.J., as Burnett lasted only two innings plus, walking four and giving up six earned runs. The 2009 World Series showed us both sides of Burnett, as he was great in game two, and historically bad in game five.

- Chase Utley continued his hot streak, belting two more home runs to tie Reggie Jackson's record for most home runs in a World Series with five. Utley took Burnett deep in the first and then followed up with another rocket off of Phil Coke in the seventh.

- Clearly part of why Charlie Manuel left Lee in as long as he did was because he didn't trust anyone out of the bullpen. And why would he?

- Again, the equation is simple. Jimmy Rollins was on base three times. The Phillies won. It's just that easy.

Game Six

- Pedro Martinez is a warrior, but he had nothing in game six. His fastball was consistently 83-87. Nothing he threw had the movement and late life he exhibited in game two. All he had was guts and guile, but in a small ballpark, you've got to have some stuff to get some outs. Pedro had none of it.

- Honestly, Andy Pettitte didn't have much more. The thing that might be most galling to the Phillies is that Pettitte was hittable twice, and they really didn't get to him at all. Pettitte allowed nine baserunners in 5.2 innings, but once again, the Phils couldn't deliver the big blow.

- Hideki Matsui had a great game six, obviously. His six RBI tied a World Series single game record, and without his performance, Utley probably takes home MVP honors for the losers. An impressive performance for a guy that can barely move, which agitates those who hate the DH, but is obviously within the rules at an AL park. His first inning home run could not have been a better pitch to hammer.

- Manuel faced a tough decision in allowing Martinez to face Matsui the second time. Leave in Pedro or bring in J.A. Happ? Martinez had gotten knocked around by Matsui in their matchups, but has the big game experience, while Happ has been wide-eyed this postseason. However, down 3-2 in the series and 2-1 in the game, and facing Matsui with the bases loaded and two outs, your chances in the Series are hanging by a thread. I think you've got to go to Happ there and take your chances with the left-left matchup. Obviously, that's easy to say now, but Happ was up, and if you're not going to use him then, when?

Game 2

2009-10-30T19:21:00.000-07:00

- Game 2 was basically the same as Game 1. Pedro Martinez was really good, but A.J. Burnett was just a smidge better. Burnett's fastball had good movement, his curveball was working well, he stayed ahead of hitters and didn't get hurt inside. Burnett stayed away from the Phils hitters, taking full advantage of a generous strike zone away. To Burnett's credit, he recognized Jeff Nelson's zone and kept throwing to it, while the Phils hitters never adjusted and probably weren't aggressive enough to give themselves a chance to get to Burnett.

- Charlie Manuel drew some first-guess criticism for starting Martinez in game two in New York, but it would be hard to argue with Manuel's call now. Martinez was brilliant, making only two mistakes, which both left the yard. He had the Yankees off-balance and guessing for his whole outing, expertly mixing his fastball with the 'Buggs Bunny" change up. Martinez doesn't throw as hard or have quite the stuff that he used to, but he still certainly knows how to pitch effectively. Martinez has allowed three earned runs in 13 innings this postseason, an ERA of 2.08. Even if he doesn't pitch again this year, signing Martinez was a great move by Phils GM Ruben Amaro.

- After a good game one, the umpiring became too much of an issue in game two. Two obviously bad calls and a brutally tilted strikezone did not reflect well upon the men in blue. The first, a line drive down the first base line by Johnny Damon in the seventh was ruled to have been caught cleanly by Ryan Howard, who then threw to second where Jimmy Rollins tagged Jorge Posada to finish a double play. However, replays clearly showed that the ball shorthopped on its way into Howard's glove. Oops. The Yankees would have had the bases loaded and only one out, and instead the inning ended. Not to be outdone, in the top of the eighth inning, maybe 15 minutes after the first blown call, first base umpire Brian Gorman botched another, as he called Chase Utley out at first on the back end of a double play grounder to finish the top of the eighth, even though Utley's foot was on the base before Mark Teixeira had possession of the ball. If called correctly, the Phils would have had runners on the corners and two out with Howard due up in a game they trailed 3-1. Instead, Howard led off the ninth.

- The strike zone leaned too far outside with lefthanded hitters at the plate, as several strikes were called on balls that at best looped around the outter edge of the plate, but at no time crossed it. Give Burnett and Jose Molina credit, though, as they kept throwing out there and the Phillies hitters never adjusted, not even trying emergency hacks to spoil good pitches.

- As good as Burnett was, he didn't come in to a lefthanded hitter more than once or twice. At some point, to be that successful against a powerful lineup, you have to throw in, or the hitters will dive out over the plate and push balls to the opposite field with relative ease.

- Alex Rodriguez became only the second player in World Series history to strike out three times in consecutive games. The other? Jim Lonborg. Lonborg played from 1965 to 1979. And he was a pitcher. Not the kind of historical company A-Rod hoped to be keeping in this series.

- Like so many other New York entities, the Yankee pitching staff has received a generous bailout thus far in the Series. Am I referring to millions in government money? Nope, I'm referring to Pedro Feliz, who has recorded eight outs in his seven plate appearances, and has made Yankee pitchers throw only 19 pitches. More outs than plate appearances? 2.7 pitches per at-bat? Feliz would literally have made Yankee pitching work harder and hurt the Phillies offense less if he had not swung at any pitches in the first two games. If he handn't, he would have recorded at most seven outs (one less than he has), and would have seen at least 21 pitches (two more than he has). Feliz is providing the Yankees an easy out they desperately need in a potent lineup.

- Much has been made of each Phillie getting an at-bat against Mariano Rivera, and making him throw 39 pitches, and this somehow helps the Phillies going forward. Are you serious? To me, this is akin to saying you made Peyton Manning take 14 plays to score a touchdown. So what? He still got the job done. And he's still at such an elite level that you have to anticipate he will get the job done far, far more often than not. This is the World Series, there are no moral victories.

- Charlie Manuel has gotten a lot of grief for not starting the runners with two on and one out and Chase Utley at the plate in the eighth. I agree with Manuel. Utley grounded into a double play to end the inning, leaving Ryan Howard on deck. First, Utley doesn't ground into many DPs (five all year). Secondly, with as many times as Rivera jams hitters, especially lefthanders, a line drive or easy pop-up double play is possible. Third, Utley strikes out some. Not as much as Howard, but he will strike out. Third, as good a runner as Rollins and Victorino (the runners on base at the time are), and as poor as Jorge Posada throws, Posada would still have an easy shot at Rollins at third with the lefty hitting Utley at the plate. Then what? Manuel would get killed for having Rollins make the last out at third base (a cardinal sin in baseball) and leaving Howard on deck without the chance to hit.

- Game three features two guys with a playoff history. Cole Hamels was the NLCS and World Series MVP in 2008, but he's been terrible in 2009, which has carried over into the playoffs. He hasn't pitched in 10 days, so the Phils certainly hope the time off has rejuvenated him. Pettitte is still playoff clutch, but he's not a lefty that is especially tough on lefthanded hitters. Pettitte has thrown well, but doesn't go as deep into games as he used to, which brings the ever shaky Yankee middle relief into the picture. However, Pettitte is as good as anyone in baseball at holding runners on, as his balk-ish move to first is rarely, if ever called. More than the first two, this game is likely to come down to the bullpens.

Game 1

2009-10-28T22:35:00.000-07:00

- Cliff Lee was outrageous. Complete game, zero earned runs, 10 strikeouts, no walks, didn't allow a runner to third base until the ninth inning with a 6-0 lead. An all-time all-time performance from the Phils new lefty ace. Lee looked almost bored, like he was toying with the Yankees, and was as loose as anyone could possibly be, non-chalantly catching a pop-up and then tagging Jorge Posada on the butt for an out in the middle innings. Lee had excellent command of all of his pitches, moved the ball around, changes speeds, disrupted timing, and was just dominant. He has allowed two earned runs in 31.1 innings in the 2009 playoffs. What a game from Lee.

- Chase Utley appeared to benefit from the extended time off. Two bombs off C.C. Sabathia, only the second lefthanded hitter to hit two home runs in a World Series game against a lefthanded pitcher, joining some guy named Babe Ruth. The other great thing about Utley, after both of his home runs, he touched home plate and walked back to the dugout like he was the baddest mother out there. In the words of the late, great Harry Kalas "Chase Utley, you are the man!"

- Utley's game was the 19th multi-homer performance in World Series history. Three of these now belong to Phillies, following Ryan Howard's two in game four of the 2008 series against Tampa Bay and Lenny Dykstra in game four in 1993 against Toronto.

- Sabathia pitched well, just not well enough, proving the old playoff adage that you don't have to pitch well, you have to win. While he didn't get roughed up like he did against the Phillies in the playoffs last season, the Phils did make him work very hard and ran up his pitch count, forcing him out of the game after seven innings. The game broadcast seemed to indicate that C.C.'s ability to come back on short rest for game four would be dependent upon how game one went... so, now we'll wait and see.

- Joe Girardi can't like what he saw from his non-Rivera relievers. Five pitchers combined to throw two innings, giving up five hits, three walks and four runs. Only Damaso Marte even looked servicable out of the group.

- Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino were on base four times between them and scored three runs. When those two, especially Rollins, get on base and score, the Phillies are virtually unbeatable.

- Raul Ibanez looked bad against C.C. Sabathia, striking out twice and grounding out to second on a ball out of the strike zone on a 3-1 count with the bases loaded and two out in the first inning. Ibanez made up for it in the eighth, however, when his two-out, two-strike, bases loaded single through the right side off David Robertson scored two and gave the Phils two crucial tack-on runs, pushing the score to 4-0.

- Umpiring, which has been terrible all postseason, got a potentially controversial call right in game one, properly determining that Rollins had caught a flare by Robinson Cano on the fly and then doubled Hideki Matsui off of first. The men in blue needed a lengthy meeting to get it right, but ultimately they did, which is all you can ask for.

- In game one, the Yankees 3-4-5 hitters went 0-12 with seven strikeouts. The Phillies 3-4-5 went 5-11 with two homers, three RBI, three walks and two runs scored.

- Derek Jeter was the only Yankee who had a good night, tallying three of the six Yankee hits and scoring the only run.

- Carlos Ruiz (Senor Octubre) continued his hot hitting, ripping another double into the gap off of Brian Bruney in the ninth, and eventually came around to score the Phils fifth run.

- The Phils had one real opportunity to run on Posada in game one, with Rollins easily taking second with Victorino at the plate.

- Pedro Feliz is lost at the plate. He has no idea what he's doing up there, and pitchers don't even have to work very hard to get him out right now. In the words of Earl Weaver, "If you think you're going to hit into a double play, do the right thing and strike out."

- He's still making some nice plays defensively, however.

- For game two, Pedro Martinez could pitch great, like he did against the Dodgers in game two in Los Angeles, or he could get lit up and not make it to the third inning. I have no earthly idea. The ball hasn't carried as well in New York as it did throughout the regular season, but Pedro did give up alot of fly balls to the Dodgers. However, they were lazy fly balls that wouldn't go out of any park. But, the Yankees lineup is much better than the Dodgers. I could argue with myself about this all day. All of which to say again, I have no idea what to expect out of Pedro.

- A.J. Burnett takes the ball in game two for the Yankees. Like Pedro, I doubt anyone feels any confidence regarding what Burnett will do in game two. Burnett has the tendency to get erratic, and if he's wild in the strike zone, he could give up a lot of hard hit balls early. However, if he locates his pitches, Burnett could have an outstanding game.

- So, I won't be surprised if game two is 2-1 or if it's 10-8.

- Game two is Burnett's first ever World Series appearance, and a lot (read: A LOT) of pressure is on his shoulders. If the Yankees lose game two, they will head to Philadelphia for three games trailing 0-2 and knowing they will have to start Chad Gaudin on the mound at some point. Gaudin can likely only give the Yankees five innings max, as he is not stretched out, and he has a tendency to get rocked by lefthanders, which the Phillies (Rollins and Victorino switch, Utley, Howard, Ibanez) have no shortage of. That would be dicey for the Yankees.

- Thursday marks the one-year anniversary of the Phils closing out the Rays in the continuation of game five of the World Series. A win in Thursday's game two would go a long way towards winning their second title in a row.

The 2009 Fall Classic

2009-10-28T12:00:00.000-07:00

With absolutely no apologies to William Rhoden of the New York Times, who wrote that America deserved a Yankee-Dodger World Series, THIS is the matchup we all deserve. The best team in the American League against the best team in the National League, which happens to be the defending World Series champs. New York vs Philadelphia. Free agent acquisitions vs a home grown core. Slugging offense vs... slugging offense. Former Cleveland ace vs... former Cleveland ace. Broadway vs Broad Street.

So how do these two titans matchup? Let's take a look. I would be willing to wager that you will not find a more comprehensive and informative preview anywhere. Not ESPN, not Sports Illustrated, not in a New York or Philadelphia media outlet. And not just because I wrote it...

Catcher- NYY- Jorge Posada vs. PHI- Carlos Ruiz
Posada had a very good offensive year for a 38-year old catcher, hitting .285 with 22 home runs, while Ruiz hit .255 with nine home runs in the eight hole for the Phils. Both backstops hit far higher at home than on the road (80 points for Posada, 110 for Ruiz), which doesn't figure to be important since both parks are good places to hit. However, in the playoffs, Posada is hitting only .258 with two HR and three RBI, while Ruiz is hitting .346 with a home run and seven RBI, including several big knocks. While both call a good game and block balls in the dirt well, Ruiz is outstanding at controlling the running game, while Posada, it could charitably be said, isn't. This is a bigger issue with Posada behind the plate than Ruiz, as the Phils have plenty of guys (SS, CF, RF, 2B, even 1B and C) who will swipe a bag, especially on a poor thrower. Four of the eight Phillie regulars stole 20 or more bags this year, while the Yankees had only one regular take more than 14. Jose Molina will likely continue to catch A.J. Burnett, which improves the defense, but is a severe dropoff at bat. Phillies backup Paul Bako has not appeared in the playoffs, and probably won't.
Advantage: None. This wouldn't be a tie except for Ruiz' offensive output in the playoffs and the Phillies' propensity to run.

First Base- NYY- Mark Teixiera vs PHI- Ryan Howard
Both Teixiera and Howard are outstanding players, but Howard is on another level right now. This playoff run he has tied records held by guys named Ruth and Gehrig, on his way to taking home NLCS MVP honors. Teixiera has it all over Howard with the glove (like maybe 10-2), but the glove isn't nearly as important at first base as it is at shortstop or catcher. Besides that, Tex has been awful at the plate so far in the playoffs.
Advantage: PHI. Defense is nice, but you can't pitch to Howard right now.

Second Base- NYY- Robinson Cano vs PHI- Chase Utley
Cano hit .320 this season and added 25 bombs, which makes him a nice second baseman. However, he never walks and hit 35 points higher at home headed towards the friendly right field stands of new Yankee Stadium. Utley, at this point, is the best second baseman in baseball. His defense still has room for improvement, but he gets on base almost 40 percent of his plate appearances and sets the hard-nosed attitude for the rest of the Phillies. He could probably use a few more off days throughout the season, because his slight frame and grit leave him worn down come September. Cano's defense isn't as good as it should be, and he was caught stealing more times (seven) than he was successful (five), traits that reflect poor baseball instinct and acumen. Utley was 23-23 in stolen base attempts.
Advantage: PHI. Cano is a good player, but he's not a winner on his own right at this stage. He's a complimentary player, while Utley is an engine that powers a great team.

Shortstop- NYY- Derek Jeter vs PHI- Jimmy Rollins
Easily the most evenly matched aspect of these two teams, each serves as his teams leadoff hitter and inspirational leader. They're both very cool, good leaders and consummate professionals. Jeter hit .334 this season, the highest batting average for a shortstop as old as he since Honus Wagner. Yes, the million dollar baseball card guy Honus Wagner. Rollins struggled offensively for much of the year and into the playoffs, but he's a red light guy, the type that hits much better when it's 2-1 in the ninth than when it's 10-1 in the fifth. Rollins' arm and range are far superior to Jeter's (much more important at SS), as is his speed, evidenced by stealing one more base than Jeter in 75 fewer opportunites on base. Rollins got the majority of the time at SS for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, but you can't go wrong in either direction here.
Advantage: None. Say whatever you want, but would you complain if you missed out on one guy but got to have the other on your squad? Didn't think so.

Third Base- NYY- Alex Rodriguez vs PHI- Pedro Feliz
What? Seriously? A-Rod is in the same category as Ryan Howard right now, which is to say that you can't get him out. He's also very good defensively, so there are no holes in his game as of today. Feliz consistently shows no plan and no patience at the plate, often gets himself out, but can run into a ball once in awhile and pop one. Feliz is about as good as it gets defensively, but his bat is just average for a premium offensive position.
Advantage: NYY. Nothing else to say here.

Left Field- NYY- Johnny Damon vs PHI- Raul Ibanez
The leftfield position for both teams features pros who have been at it quite a long time. Damon was one of the 'idiots' with the 2004 Red Sox, while this year marks the first trip to the Series for the 37 year old Ibanez. The two had similar numbers for the year, with Damon holding an edge in batting average and on-base percentage, while Ibanez had more home runs and and RBI. Ibanez was actually better against lefthanded pitching than righties, but Damon held his own against lefties. The biggest difference in the two is that Damon hit 70% of his home runs and 68% of his RBI at home, while Ibanez actually produced more power wise away from home. Neither is an especially good fielder at this stage, and Ibanez is likely to DH in the games in New York.
Advantage: None. Ibanez hits good pitches better than Damon does at this stage; Damon runs better, but also throws very poorly. They're close enough to call it a draw.

Center Field- NYY- Melky Cabrera vs PHI- Shane Victorino
Playing centerfield for any team carries a certain amount of cache with it, especially for historically significant franchises like the Yankees and Phillies. Cabrera is fine as a nine hole hitter for a powerful lineup, but, like Cano, he's not a player that should be a difference maker in a series like this. Victorino is the yappiest and spunkiest of the Phillies, a player who loves the stage when everyone's looking at him, and when everyone's yelling at him. Victorino has a higher average, higher on base percentage, and stole more bases. Cabrera had more home runs and RBI, but hits ninth in an order where everyone is on base, while Victorino is one of the guys always on base in a similar lineup. Cabrera's home/road power number splits also skew homeward. Defensively, Cabrera is a guy, while Victorino's range and arm are as good as any centerfielder in baseball.
Advantage: PHI. Cabrera is still only 25 and may develop into an All-Star, but Victorino is one right now.

Right Field- NYY- Nick Swisher vs PHI- Jayson Werth
For the last of the everyday positions, I'm going to be blunt. Nick Swisher stinks and Jayson Werth is an emerging premier player. Swisher hit only .200 this season against 2009 playoff teams, and while his numbers look ok, they're inflated against bad pitching. Werth, like Utley, is a hard nosed attitude player that doesn't talk about it, he just is about it. 36 home runs, 99 RBI, and 20 steals tell the story. He's also got great range and a good arm.
Advantage: PHI. Not even close. Swisher brings some levity and fun to otherwise uptight and corporate team, but those are his biggest contributions. Werth can do it all, and is currently doing just that.

Designated Hitter- NYY- Hideki Matsui vs PHI- Ben Francisco
Matsui has been the Yankees DH all year, and in fact hasn't played in the field at all in 2009. He remained productive in the DH role, hitting .274 with 28 home runs and 90 RBI in numbers that were relatively constant across home/road and left/right splits. Francisco has DH'd some in the AL, but will likely play LF in NY as a better fielder, thus moving Ibanez to the DH slot. He has some pop, but his average hasn't been great since arriving in Philadelphia as part of the Cliff Lee deal. He is, however, the best the Phils bench has to offer.
Advantage: NYY. Matsui is a legit DH, while the Phillies always seem to struggle in the DH slot, be it in interleague or in the World Series last year. However, Matsui's bat is out of the lineup in Philadelphia, which is a much bigger loss than the Phillies losing Francisco.

Bench- NYY- Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr, Eric Hinske vs PHI- Ben Francisco, Matt Stairs, Paul Bako, Greg Dobbs, Eric Bruntlett
The Yankees have a servicable sub in Jerry Hairston, good backup catcher in Jose Molina and speed in Brett Gardner. The Phillies bench hasn't given them much of anything this year, as Dobbs has been hurt, Staris has looked old, Bruntlett's modest ability has been tempered even further by not playing consistently, and Bako is a zero offensively.
Advantage: NYY. The only real impact is likely to be Gardner's speed vs nothing of substance coming from the Phils bench.

Overall Baserunning
Advantage: PHI. The Phils run alot, and with alarming success, due in large part to the help of first base coach Davey Lopes. Again, the Yankees had only one regular (Jeter) take more than 14 bases, while the Phillies had four of eight (Rollins, Victorino, Utley and Werth) take 20 or more. Ruiz throws better and and controls a running game better than Posada, and he shouldn't have as much to worry about as Posada does.

Overall Defense
Advantage: PHI. The Phillies are better defensively at all the premier defensive positions (catcher, shortstop, centerfield), which by itself wins it for the Phils. Neither second baseman or leftfielder is great (althought Francisco is pretty good if he plays LF in New York), both third baseman are really good. The Yankees are much better at first, the Phils are much better in rightfield. Teixiera is the only Yankee clearly better than his Phillies counterpart.

Ace- NYY- C.C. Sabathia vs PHI- Cliff Lee
Who hates this series more, Met fans or Indian fans? (My money is on Met fans). Both have been horses for their new team, especially in the postseason. Both are lefthanders, which figures to be important against lefty-laden lineups that both teams possess. Neither has started a World Series game before, but don't appear likely to be spooked by the stage. Lee has a bit more history with the Yankees than Sabathia does with the Phils, however, the Phils roughed up Sabathia in the playoffs last season when he was with Milwaukee.
Advantage: NYY. Almost like shortstop, you can't go wrong either way. I give Sabathia the edge, because in order for him to go three times in the Series he'd be on short rest twice, which he's used to, while Lee has never pitched on short rest.

Starting Pitching Depth
The Yankees have only three starters, as evidenced by the fact that they've only thrown three guys so far. They're scared to use Joba Chamberlain or Chad Gaudin in a starting role in the playoffs, and they should be. In order to get through the Series without using one of them, Andy Pettitte would have to go on short rest, which he's not equipped to do. A.J. Burnett could be great, or he could get rocked. He owns a career ERA over 5.00 against Philadelphia. The Phillies have two guys in Cole Hamels and Pedro Martinez who have been great in the playoffs over the years. Hamels looked shot against the Dodgers, but by the time he starts game three, he will have had nine days off, which could be just enough to give him a boost. Or could just make him look bad again. Martinez was untouchable against the Dodgers, and his start in New York is must see TV, given his history with the Yankees and the fans there. Joe Blanton may be the key for the Phillies, as he will likely start game four. Blanton has been the Phils most consistent pitcher all season, has been good in a relief role early in the playoffs while the cavalry (Park, Myers) got healthy, and could shut it down. J.A. Happ has looked scared throughout the playoffs, but he is another option Charlie Manuel can turn to.
Advantage: PHI. Basically, the Yankees have two good starting pitchers they can use after their ace (Burnett and Pettitte), while the Phillies have four (Martinez, Hamels, Happ, Blanton).

Middle and Short Relief
This area is a study in contrasts between the regular and postseason. During the regular season, the Yankees relief corps was pretty sturdy, and did a good job getting the ball to Mariano Rivera at the end. However, during the playoffs, the main setup guys Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have been really shaky, and have thrown the type of stuff that would get hammered by the Phillies lineup. Hughes and Chamberlain have 'stuff', which makes them the only potentially reliable pieces. Damaso Marte, David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves stink. Sorry. They stink. The Phils whole bullpen was bad during the regular season with the exception of Ryan Madson, and in the playoffs they've been lockdown, with the exception of Ryan Madson. Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park have been outstanding since returning from injury, and Scott Eyre has made the absence of J.C. Romero much easier to handle. J.A. Happ has looked scared from the outset, and Antonio Bastardo is too young and has one pitch to be a reliable lefty. Brett Myers could be an X factor in the Phils pen.
Advantage: PHI. Like the rotation, the Phillies have more usable pieces than the Yankees.

Closer- NYY- Mariano Rivera vs PHI- Brad Lidge
Rivera and Lidge are 1-2 in career postseason saves and series' closed out, so it's not a surprise their teams meet on the game's greatest stage. Statistically the two greatest closers in postseason history, Rivera and Lidge have taken different paths to this point this year. Rivera, even at age 39, has been his normal great self, posting a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves. Ho-hum. Lidge, after his perfect 2008 season, was abysmal during the regular season, blowing 11 saves, including two at Yankee Stadium. However, in the playoffs, Lidge has looked closer to regaining his dominant form, closing out all three of his chances, not allowing a run and striking out a batter an inning.
Advantage: NYY. Rivera may be the greatest pitcher ever, not just closer. However, if Lidge continues his resurgence, this is pretty close to a draw. Rivera is great, but he isn't unbeaten in World Series. Just ask the Diamondbacks.

Manager- NYY- Joe Girardi vs PHI- Charlie Manuel
Girardi is in his second year managing the Yankees, his second managerial stint after his last season in Florida saw him win NL Manager of the Year honors and then get fired. Manuel is in his fifth season in Philadelphia, and has morphed from country bumpkin to good ole boy genius in the mold of Casey Stengal. Amazing what a title will do for you. Girardi has a tendency to overmanage, as seen in the ALCS where he twice replaced pitchers with like handed pitchers, usually not to great results. He was roundly criticized for consulting a book in the dugout and then immediately making a pitching change against the Angels. From his time in Florida, Girardi showed no interest in pitching to Ryan Howard, and it will be interesting to see if that continues, especially with an improved cast including Werth and Ibanez right behind him. Manuel, on the other hand, has managed the pants off of Joe Torre two years in a row in the playoffs, and what he lacks in rhetorical flourish, he more than makes up for in his handling of his players and feel for what button to push at what time.
Advantage: PHI. Name one instance when Joe Girardi shrewdly outmanuevered anyone. Besides himself. And it worked out well for his team.

Home Field- NYY- Yankee Stadium vs PHI- Citizens Bank Park
Both parks are newer, gorgeous settings to take in a ball game, and tend to favor hitters over pitchers. Right field in Yankee Stadium is an absolute disgrace, and the Yankees have taken full advantage through most of the season. However, the main advantage the Yankees have in their stadium is their home run prowess, which is completely offset by a team capable of out homering them like the Phillies. Citizens Bank Park plays small in the alleys and to left, but fewer broken bats and pop ups actually leave the yard there. Fan wise, I'll probably get some crap for this, but it's not even close between the Yankee and Phillie crowds. I don't want to hear about how much the fans impact the game in New York, not when seats right around home plate are empty through the first half of a League Championship Series game. This ain't Atlanta folks, come on, you're better than that.
Advantage: None. The Phillies won't be intimidated by Yankee Stadium, or by Mystique and Aura, who Curt Schilling once famously quipped about. But if they Yankees think the stadium helps them play better, then it does. Philadelphia isn't a place likely to give a warm reception to any visitors, from New York or otherwise.

Intangibles
This Phils team is not one that is going to be intimidated by New York or the storied franchise that is the Yankees. The Phils are a team with steely resolve, a million pounds of heart, and fear of no one. The Yankees have been a lot looser this year, thanks in large part to Nick Swisher, but remain a bit corporate and stuffy. The Phillies have been off for a week, which could work wonders for their guys that are clearly tired (Utley, Madson, Feliz, Hamels), but could also leave them a bit rusty at the outset. The actual effect remains to be seen. 17 Yankees will be in the World Series for the first time, while only six Phillies (Ibanez, Lee, Francisco, Bako, Park and Antonio Bastardo) have not been to the Series prior to this year.
Advantage: It's intangible. If we could tell with any certainty, it'd be tangible.

Yankees Win If - They effectively eliminate middle relief and get the ball to Rivera... A-Rod continues his hot streak and either Teixeira or Posada join in on the hot streak... Sabathia goes 3-0... They improve dramatically at hitting with runners in scoring position... They're not spooked by the Philadelphia crowd, or their 17 World Series newcomers aren't overwhelmed by the moment... Jeter is always on base... They can win twice at Citizens Bank Park, even with homefield advantage... Chad Gaudin doesn't get blitzed as a game four starter in Philadelphia... The Phillies let A-Rod beat them... If all these things go right, the Yankees win in a short series.

Phillies Win If- Rollins and Victorino get on base and cause trouble... Lidge continues to be playoff Brad Lidge, and not regular season Brad Lidge... Cole Hamels or Pedro Martinez pitch like they're capable... Cliff Lee goes 2-0... They get anything substantive from the bench/DH... Ryan Madson looks right... Utley, Werth or Ibanez has a monster series... The bottom of the order (Ruiz, Francisco, Feliz) get on base... The Yankees let Ryan Howard beat them... If all these things go right, the Phillies win in a short series.

Etc, Etc, Etc- This year's matchup is a rematch of the 1950 Series, which the Yankees won, 4-0... The Phillies are 16-4 in their last 20 postseason games, which has never been done by a National League team... The Phils would have swept the Yankees in New York earlier this season in interleague play, except for two blown saves by Brad Lidge... Jimmy Rollins predicted this World Series matchup in Playboy before the season started... The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, while the Phillies had the best road record... Neither team has a player on its active roster that has played for the other team... Phillies reliever Chad Durbin is on a World Series team for the third time in four years, having reached the Series with Detroit in 2006 and Philadelphia last year... He did not appear in a playoff game for Detroit... Only five Yankees have been to the World Series with the Yankees, and only four (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera) have won a World Series with the Yanks... 18 of the Phillies 25 active roster players for the '09 Series were on the roster in '08... Three more Phillies on the '08 roster (J.C. Romero, Jamie Moyer, Clay Condrey) are inactive... Yankee reserve Eric Hinske struck out against Brad Lidge to end the 2008 World Series... The Phillies have never won a playoff series in which they have lost game one... Of course, prior to 2008, they had only ever won four playoff series... They've won five playoff series since since start of 2008, and look to make it one more before the start of 2010... 20 of 23 espn.com baseballl analysts picked the Yankees to win the Series, while 11 of 12 baseball analysts at cnnsi.com picked likewise.

NYY World Series Roster- 2 Derek Jeter, 11 Brett Gardner, 13 Alex Rodriguez, 14 Eric Hinske, 17 Jerry Hairston Jr., 18 Johnny Damon, 20 Jorge Posada, 24 Robinson Cano, 25 Mark Teixeira, 26 Jose Molina, 30 David Robertson, 33 Nick Swisher, 34 A.J. Burnett, 41 Chad Gaudin, 42 Mariano Rivera, 43 Damaso Marte, 46 Andy Pettitte, 48 Phil Coke, 52 C.C. Sabathia, 53 Melky Cabrera, 55 Hideki Matsui, 62 Joba Chamberlain, 65 Phil Hughes, 91 Alfredo Aceves, 99 Brian Bruney

PHI World Series Roster- 4 Eric Bruntlett, 6 Ryan Howard, 7 Pedro Feliz, 8 Shane Victorino, 10 Ben Francisco, 11 Jimmy Rollins, 12 Matt Stairs, 19 Greg Dobbs, 23 Paul Bako, 26 Chase Utley, 28 Jayson Werth, 29 Raul Ibanez, 34 Cliff Lee, 35 Cole Hamels, 37 Chad Durbin, 39 Brett Myers, 43 J.A. Happ, 45 Pedro Martinez, 46 Ryan Madson, 47 Scott Eyre, 51 Carlos Ruiz, 54 Brad Lidge, 56 Joe Blanton, 58 Antonio Bastardo, 61 Chan Ho Park

LCS In Review

2009-10-26T07:02:00.000-07:00

- Closers are scared. Scared. Closers are supposed to be the guys who come in with electric stuff and no fear, who say 'here it is, hit it' and let the chips fall where they may. However, too many closers in the playoffs have pitched scared. They keep going away, away, away. They're nibbling. Blah blah blah. You're the closer. YOU have the lead. YOU have shut down stuff. Use it. What is Jonathan Broxton doing staying away, away, away with Matt Stairs? I know Stairs took him about 9000 feet deep last year, but Stairs is hitting under .200 this year and looks done. And Broxton is throwing 100 mph. Go after the hitters.

- There are only two closers in the playoffs this year who haven't looked scared- Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge. Their teams are in the World Series. Rivera and Lidge are also number one and two all-time in playoff saves and playoff series' closed out. Think those numbers and the corresponding World Series matchup of their respective teams is a coincidence? I don't either.

- Catchers visting the mound between pitches in the playoffs has got to be curtailed. I understand there are some big spots and some big pitches, but if a catcher needs to run out to talk to his pitcher one more time on a 1-1 count with no on and no out, I'm going to scream.

- Umpires, among other issues, need to keep the game going. Randy Wolf isn't ready to pinch run? Mariano Rivera isn't quite ready to come in, so Joba Chamberlain throws to first 72 times and never has the intent of throwing home? No. The men in blue need to keep the game going. If you're not ready, too bad.

- TBS is brutal at broadcasting baseball games. Brutal. Who's warming up in the bullpen? Who's likely to be used off the bench in a given spot? You would never know watching TBS. The camera work was baseball poor, and the thing that really drives me nuts is how they would remain on a long view shot as a pitch was about to be delivered. Show the game, not how many goofy camera angles you have.

- Chip Caray was alright at best behind the play-by-play mic.

- I like Ron Darling, however.

- Buck Martinez. Yawn. I can take or leave him.

- Great observation by my friend Chip (clearly not Caray), who pointed out that for whatever reason, catchers seem to rise up offensively come playoff time. You've seen it this year and last with Carlos Ruiz, and you've seen it in recent years from Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Varitek and any of the catching Molinas (I don't include Pudge Roriguez in that group, because he's always been a great offensive player). But why are catchers seemingly 'playoff clutch' more than second basemen or right fielders? I've seen this in college too, where the team I worked with had a catcher play better in a conference tournament than I had ever seen him play, and during this run he caught five games in four days. Maybe it's being more in tune with the game because you're a part of every play. Maybe it's the same inner qualities that makes catchers good managers (three of the final four managers were catchers in the bigs). Who knows? I don't. But it is a trend I'd expect to continue.

- Bottom line on the NLCS- the Phillies are just better than the Dodgers. You can analyze it six ways to Sunday, but that's it. The Phillies lineup is better, the Phillies pitch better, run better, manage better, execute better. Period.

- The Dodgers do have bright days ahead of them, however.

- Cole Hamels stinks. He was as responsible as anyone for the Phils winning in '08, but he's killing them now. Who wouldn't pick the Phils to beat the Yankees if they had 08 Hamels and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation?

- The umpiring has been terrible across all playoff series. Much worse in the ALCS than the NLCS though.

- The Angels played like a last-place team intimidated by the big, bad Yankees. One thing that drives me nuts is stupid, sloppy baseball. One reason I generally like watching the Angels is that they play clean an execute well. But in the ALCS... not so much. Nine walks in an elimination game? Vlad Guerrero getting picked off first on a shallow pop up to right? Everyone throwing the ball all over the place? Ugly.

- The Yankees were once again the beneficiaries of some horrendous mistakes in the ALCS. I'm not saying they didn't deserve to win either series, because they clearly did. But I am saying they were beatable, and it's unlikely that a team like the Phillies will let them off the hook when they mess up. The Phillies may not win, but they will make you beat them, as opposed to giving away games.

- Not counting NLCS game two, that is.

- Andy Pettitte was money in another elimination game. However, getting pushed to six games means Pettitte realistically only gets one start in the World Series.

- If the ALCS went seven, C.C. Sabathia would only have been able to pitch twice in the Series. Another good reason to close it out in six.

- A-Rod and Ryan Howard. I wouldn't pitch to either of them right now.

- Epic World Series on tap. Enjoy. Preview soon.

Around the League Championship Series

2009-10-21T13:24:00.000-07:00

- If I learned anything hanging around University of Delaware baseball coach Jim Sherman for several years, it's this... value outs. Don't give them away offensively. Always take them when the offense gives you a chance for one. The reason I bring this up is not to pontificate about an earlier stage in my life, but rather because the teams in this year's playoffs are not treating outs with that respect, and they are often paying dearly for it. How many baserunners have you seen thrown out this playoff season for being just a little too careless on the bases (Bobby Abreu?) How many plays in the field have happened where a defender tried to be a hero instead of just getting an out (Maicer Izturis?). Don't give away outs on offense. Don't give extra outs on defense. If you do this, you have a good chance to win.

- Outs are the only thing that can stop a rally. There's no clock. Get outs. This drives me nuts when it's not executed by paid professionals, if you can't tell.

- The adage that in the playoffs more games are lost than are won is certainly coming true. The NLCS could be over by now, taking that view. The Phillies basically gave the Dodgers five outs in the deciding bottom of the eighth inning.

- People always want to complain about umpiring when there's a bad call, but this year's playoff umpiring has been ridiculous. Game four between the Yankees and Angels had so many clear calls that were missed it was unreal. What's going on here? What's the problem? I don't know what those answers are, but it has to stop.

- There is no accountability for umpires. None. Tom White, a longtime NFL referee, made an egregious error a couple years back, and got docked a game check. That doesn't happen to umpires. But it needs to.

- If there were accountability, about 15 umpires would have some serious cash flow limitations right now.

- Fascinating point made by Tom Verducci in the Wednesday edition of his Five Cuts column... it's so good, I haven't linked to it, I've copy/pasted it...

"Red Sox president Larry Lucchino has a term for playing in the intense conditions of the Northeast: East Coast Baseball. He is on to something. In Philadelphia, Boston and New York, almost every home game carries an intensity (from fans and media) that is a close facsimile to playoff baseball. And when you do get to October, the frequently cold, wet, blustery weather provides something else to battle, too.

I started thinking about East Coast Baseball as I watched the Dodgers and Angels go 0-4 in Philadelphia and New York in the LCS, all the while looking like they were not up to the challenges of the crowd and the weather. And then I thought, is there something to West Coast teams not measuring up to East Coast Baseball in October?

So I looked at all the West Coast teams -- the Dodgers, Angels, Athletics, Padres, Giants, Mariners and, because they fit the criteria except for a nearby beach, the Diamondbacks -- who have played East Coast Baseball in the postseason in the wild-card era, since 1995. In addition to New York and Philadelphia, other cities that fit the definition of East Coast Baseball at the time they hosted West Coast teams in the playoffs were Boston, Detroit and Baltimore.

It turns out there have been 22 playoff matchups when a West Coast team ventured into East Coast Baseball. The result: the West Coast teams are 10-36 in East Coast Baseball venues, a .217 winning percentage. In other words, get them out of their laid-back, warm environment and into the nasty conditions in the East, and they're not even the 1962 Mets.

And it is not getting any easier. Since 2003 the West Coast teams are 3-17 in East Coast Baseball playoff environments. That's the kind of history the Dodgers are up against tonight when they play NLCS Game 5 in Philadelphia. Bundle up, Dodgers."

Wow. What a great observation, but no surprise from Verducci.

NLCS Games 2-4

2009-10-20T14:49:00.000-07:00

- Pedro Martinez and Vicente Padilla were both great in their respective starts. I wasn't real sure what to expect out of either.

- Chase Utley's defense cost the Phillies runs in three straight games, but is ultimately nothing to worry about. He's too good a player and too hard a worker to expect that to continue. The shame of losing game two was that the Phils could have returned home up 2-0 and would have had brooms on the mind.

- Just as damaging to the Phils cause was Ronnie Belliard's bunt that wasn't fielded. The Dodgers effectively got five outs from the Phillies, and scored just enough to win.

- Aside from all that, you can't expect to win when you score one run

- J.A. Happ continued to look scared in game two

- Game three was a classic 'somebody got to pay' game, with the Phils not amused by having their former teammate Padilla shove it to them. Hiroki Kuroda, nothing personal, it was just your turn.

- Find me a trade deadline deal in recent years with as much playoff impact as the Cliff Lee deal. Lee has been untouchable for the Phillies, while the Dodgers thought they had a deal done for him, and didn't end up with him. Think about how this series, the whole second half even, would be different if the Dodgers got Lee instead of the Phillies.

- And humor me a bit and assume that in the scenario above, the Phillies still didn't get Roy Halladay

- I wonder what Roy Halladay thinks when he watches the Phillies in the playoffs these days

- Manny Ramirez made a nice running grab in the eighth inning of game four, temporarily keeping the Dodgers in the lead. I guess that made up for the play in the sixth when Shane Victorino hit a ball into the leftfield corner and Manny loafed after it, then missed the cut off man, allowing Victorino to easily stride into third with a leftfield triple. I don't care how fast the runner is, THAT should never happen, save a ridiculous outfield overshift.

- Jonathan Broxton = Dennis Eckersley. Prior to game four, there had only been two walkoff extra base hits to win a playoff game when the hitting team had two outs and was trailing. One was Cookie Lavagetto in the 1947 World Series (ruining Bill Bevens no-hitter), and the other was Kirk Gibson's pinch-hit home run off of Eckersley in game one of the 1988 World Series. I think I've seen that play once or twice. In post game interviews, Broxton had that same stunned, vacant stare that Eck had after giving up the homer to Gibson.

- If you're Broxton and you throw 100 mph consistently, what are you doing nibbling around with Matt Stairs? I know he took you out 800 feet last year, but Stairs is done, and even the best pitchers get taken really deep every once in awhile. That's not showing the ability to quickly forget about bad pitches that a dominant closer needs, especially this time of year.

- Lost in all the hysteria over the way the Phillies won the game was the fact that Brad Lidge looked really, really good in his appearance. He blew away Matt Kemp and then froze Andre Ethier with a good tight slider to end the top of the ninth. The game was Lidge's first win of the year, regular season or playoffs.

- Once again, Eric Bruntlett finds himself right in the middle of Phillies history. Two game-winning runs in last year's World Series, an unassisted triple play, now he scores as the front half of the dramatic ending to 2009 NLCS Game Four. It's either a knack for being at the right place at the right time or dumb luck, but either way, big ups to Bruntlett.

- THAT boys and girls, is what I'm talking about when I illustrate the differences between the Phillies and the Mets. Or, as Mitch Williams said on the pre-pre-game show on the radio before game four, the Mets are the kid in high school that talks about beating people up, the Phillies are the team that actually beats people up.

ALCS Games 1-3

2009-10-19T19:17:00.000-07:00

- In the first two games in New York, the Angels wanted no part of playing in the cold. I have a theory about cold weather baseball games. The team with the most guys wearing ski masks, ear flaps, etc. loses. The reason is that the team wearing all the extra stuff is thinking about staying warm, while the other team is thinking about baseball.

- Is that Angels team in games one and two the same Angel team that played all season long? The Angels under Mike Scioscia are known by playing clean and being fundamentally sound, traits which have abandoned them thus far in the Yankees series.

- My first two point were exemplified best by the ball hit by Hidecki Matsui in the first inning of game one. You may remember this play by Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar looking at each other as a lazy pop up fell in between them, scoring the second Yankee runs.

- I'm tired of teams giving the Yankees games on a silver platter. Good grief. The Yankees have won five games in the playoffs so far, and you could argue that three of those games (ALDS Game 2, ALCS Games 1 and 2) were "lost" by the opponent, and only one was really "won" by the Yankees. I thought for sure the Yankees would have to play better than they did against Minnesota to beat the Angels, but apparently that's not the case.

- Vladimir Guerrero's bat is slow. He hit the home run off Andy Pettitte, but Pettitte doesn't throw nearly as hard as C.C. Sabathia or A.J. Burnett, guys that overwhelmed Vlad in the first two games.

- Did anyone want to win game three? Both teams gave the other plenty of opportunites to take the win, only to have their opponent return the favor.

- Jeff Mathis, for a guy that apparently doesn't hit much, has had some big knocks against the Yankees, knocking three doubles in six at-bats.

- Anaheim's bullpen has to stop giving up the long ball. The Yankees have alot of guys that can hit the ball out of the park, but late in games, home runs are killers.

- By the way, Alex Rodriguez is still only hitting .250 this series. Two of his three hits happened to leave the yard.

- Scioscia is a bit shaken in his confidence in Brian Fuentes as his closer. And he should be. A-Rod took him out on an 0-2 pitch, but he didn't swing at strike one or two, which left Fuentes thinking he could power an 88 mph fastball up and away past A-Rod. Poor choice.

- Joe Girardi overmanaged game three just a little bit. Five Yankee pitchers threw less than an inning each in game three. His last move was especially curious, removing a righthanded pitcher (David Robertson) throwing well with two outs and no one on in the 11th inning for another righthanded pitcher (Alfredo Aceves) against a righthanded hitter. The righthanded hitter, Howi Kendrick, reached base and scored on a hit by Jeff Mathis. Strange.

- I'm going to first guess Joe Girardi using C.C. Sabathia on short rest in game four. It might work out, but if the series goes seven, Sabathia will pitch on short rest again, and then go short again in the World Series. Girardi trying to run through the ALCS and World Series with only three starting pitchers tells me that he thinks his other options aren't that great. In addition, Sabathia pitched Milwaukee to the playoffs last year, but started to show signs of wear with the mounting short-rest starts, ultimately culminating in a poor outing against the Phillies in the NLDS. Girardi doesn't need to throw Sabathia while still in control of the series unless he really doesn't trust any other option, and if that's true, the Yankees may have a bigger problem than is immediately visible.

NLCS Game 1

2009-10-16T11:08:00.000-07:00

What a kickoff to the rematch of the 2008 NLCS between the Phillies and the Dodgers. Some thoughts post-game, if I'm relaxed enough after another four hours of white-knuckle baseball...

- For all the pre-game and pre-series talk about the Dodgers having such a shutdown bullpen and the Phillies having bullpen issues, it was the Dodger pen that gave it up, and the Phillies pen that got all the big outs it needed

- Shane Victorino still clearly has some animosity towards the Dodgers coarsing through his veins. I'm not sure why, but I don't care, he seems to play better when he's all charged up.

- Chan Ho Park was electric. The velocity and movement on his pitches was staggering. For a guy that hasn't pitched in a Major League game in a month, he was thrown right into the fire. Game 1 of the NLCS, tying run on second, no outs in the seventh inning. No big thing. Park got in Manny Ramirez' kitchen and got a weak ground out to third, blew away Matt Kemp with high cheese and then induced a weak ground ball to second from Casey Blake. What a job by Park. His injury was a hamstring issue, and maybe having a fresh arm is helping him at this point of the year.

- Cole Hamels is soft. He's just a big whiner and complainer. I'll even leave alone the fact that he showed up Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins after a botched double play grounder in the fifth. You could visibly see that he was in the tank after this, and he responded by throwing a gopher ball to Ramirez. Look, pal, you stunk all year, and then you stunk again against Colorado, and you stunk in game one. The offense (your fielders) just got you five runs. So stone up, go out and get some outs. Period. That's it. Darren Daulton was angry about Hamels on the postgame show. If Daulton played with Cole, he would've borderline fought the big soft lefty. I'm disgusted with Cole Hamels right now. Shut up, pitch, get outs, stop whining and making excuses.

- Manny Ramirez' bat looked awfully slow last night. He couldn't catch up to decent fastballs fired up there by Park or Madson, and his home run came on a change up. Visibly, he looks substantially smaller than he did last year also. Maybe all of this is coincidental, but taking those observable items into consideration along with his post-suspension statistics (bad compared to pre-suspension), you can't help but think alot of ManRam's dominence in recent years has been chemically derived.

-Randy Marsh was terrible behind the plate. No strike zone, no consistency to it, nothing. He also allowed Joe Torre to stall far too long to get Randy Wolf ready to pinch run in the sixth. Sorry, if you're not ready to go, tough luck.

- More than any other Dodger, Rafael Furcal scares me. He's a good player, and has been back to his days in Atlanta, and he always seems like he's getting big hits. There are probably others that should scare me more, but Furcal is it in that lineup.

- Andre Ethier is swinging a really hot stick these days, however

- Clayton Kershaw showed his youth on the mound in game one. Torre believed he could be what Hamels was last year. He was not.

- Torre again got outmanaged by Charlie Manuel. He stuck with Kershaw too long, costing his team two runs on a double by Ryan Howard. I think he also hooked Hon Chi Kuo a little too early, as Kuo is tough on the Phillies.

- George Sherrill had the look of a guy a little overwhelmed by the big stage

- As did J.A. Happ

- Ryan Madson concerns me. I think he's just about out of gas. He's still throwing hard, but not as hard as a month ago, and the ball isn't moving as much on him. That's two straight rough outings for him, even with three days rest in between.

- I don't know if Brad Lidge is all the way back. But watching him, he certainly believes he is, and that might be all that matters.

- Carlos Ruiz is some kind of playoff performer. He's hitting .375 with six RBI in five playoff games so far in 2009, and in his career has hit over .300 in four of his five playoff series. He had a huge deflating three-run bomb off of Kershaw in game one to compliment a walkoff 28 foot roller to win game three of last year's World Series. 'Chooch' as he is known to the Phils and their fans, has been dubbed 'Senor Octobre' on local sports talk radio.

- Interesting thought on Pedro Martinez starting in game two in LA as opposed to back in Philadelphia. I don't remember where I heard it in order to give credit, but it's a good idea. The thought goes that you start Pedro in LA because the park is much bigger and more forgiving, which are all obviously good things. But, beyond that, those factors allow Pedro to nibble a bit more and not have to be so aggressive in the zone.

- The Dodgers now have to rely on Vicente Padilla in a must-win game two in Los Angeles. Padilla could shut it down, or blow sky high, with no way to predict either outcome.

- Torre clearly had no interest in having Padilla start a game at Citizens Bank Park. That would greatly increase the chances of a meltdown.

Jayson Stark's column makes several good points regarding game one. My two favorites...
- The Dodgers brought the tying run or go-ahead run to the plate 17 times in the game, and never pulled even
- George Sherrill had given up one home run to a lefthanded hitter in the last two seasons before giving up an eighth inning bomb to Raul Ibanez

Phillies- Rockies Game Four

2009-10-14T09:29:00.000-07:00

Wow.

Just wow. There have been a handful of baseball games that I've watched in my life that have left me exhausted and breathless at their conclusion. Game Seven of the 2001 World Series between the Yankees and Diamondbacks, when Luis Gonzalez' blooper beat the unbeatable Mariano Rivera, was one such game. Game seven of the 2003 ALCS, when Aaron Boone beat the Red Sox and sent the Yankees to the World Series, also comes to mind.

Game four between the Phillies and the Rockies is the latest entry to this list.

The game took on an even deeper level of anxiety and exhaustion for me, given that I had a rooting interest in the outcome, one that would legitimately sour my mood for several hours if the end result was not what I had wanted.

If you missed it, the Phillies defeated the Rockies, 5-4, on Monday night to advance to the National League Championship Series for the second consecutive season.

The game started out with a bang as the second batter of the game, Phillies centerfielder Shane Victorino, turned around an Ubaldo Jimenez fastball and launched it into the Rockies bullpen for a 1-0 Phils lead.

And 1-0 looked like it would hold up for awhile, especially given the dominance exhibited by Cliff Lee. Lee started game one against the Rocks, and threw a complete game that missed becoming a shutout by only one out, as the Rockies scored their lone run in the 5-1 defeat with two outs in the ninth.

Lee was not as sharp as he had been in game one, where he dominated by using a well located fastball and sharp cutter to get ahead of and put away Colorado hitters. Like game one, Lee got into trouble in the first inning, but was able to escape without any runs scoreing. He would go on to strike out five in the first five innings, while the Phillies added a run on a solo shot from Jayson Werth in the sixth.

Up 2-0 entering the bottom of the sixth, the Phils had missed a few opportunities to really put the Rockies away, particularly when they did not score after loading the bases with only one out in the third. The Rockies took advantage, with Todd Helton scoring ahead of a Troy Tulowitzki double to cut the lead in half, 2-1. With 'Tulo' on second and only one out, Colorado looked poised to tie a game they shouldn't have even been in, when Garrett Atkins rocket was snared by Pedro Feliz and Tulowitzki was doubled off second to end the threat.

Heading to the eighth with the score still tied at one, one got the feeling that this game was far from over. The Phillies then loaded the bases with one out for the second time in the game, chasing Franklin Morales from the game, and bringing on Rafael Betancourt. Phillie third baseman Pedro Feliz swung at and popped up the first pitch from Betancourt, setting off uncountable unsavory exclamations in the Delaware Valley. Carlos Ruiz followed with a good at bat, but ultimately grounded out to shortstop. For the second time in the game, the Phils came up empty after loading the bases with one out. Generally, pulling a stunt like that will come back to haunt you.

And it did. With one out, Dexter Fowler walked and Todd Helton hit a roller to Chase Utley at second. With the ball and Fowler arriving at Utley at the same time, Fowler leapt CLEAR OVER Utley to avoid a collision. Perhaps flustered by the leap, Utley tossed the ball to Jimmy Rollins, who dropped it. Two on, one out, Tulowitzki up, Cliff Lee and Raul Ibanez out, Ryan Madson and Ben Francisco in. Tulowitzki hits a sinking liner to left that is snared on a great diving catch by Francisco, a play that almost certainly would not have been made by the much slower Ibanez. Two outs, runners on first and second, Phils still leading 2-1. Jason Giambi pinch hits and flares a first-pitch bleeder inside the line in left to tie the game. Yorvit Torrealba follows with a double in the right-centerfield gap, scoring the slow Helton and Giambi. Rockies lead 4-2. Coors Field is going nuts. Huston Street is coming in. A winner-take-all game five in Philadelphia looks imminent.

Street came into the game to protect the Rockie lead, a goal he was successful in achieving all but two times in 2009. He struck out Greg Dobbs for one out, allowed a single to Rollins, and got an out when Victorino grounded into a fielder's choice. With two outs and a runner on first, Huston Street threw up all over himself. There is no nicer way to say it. He got scared and fell apart like a little girl.

Facing Utley in a big situation can be intimidating to any closer, particularly when he represents the tying run. But man up. Street threw six pitches to Utley, none of them closer than the outter black, clearly terrified to threw anything that Utley could hit. If you're a closer and you're scared, you're in a world of trouble.

Having not challenged Utley, Street now had to deal with Ryan Howard with the tying run on base, and continued to look scared, throwing away, away, away to Howard. Down 2-1 in the count, Street had no choice but the throw a strike, and Howard banged it off the wall in right, bringing in Victorino and Utley to tie the game. Werth followed with a great piece of bad ball hitting, putting a good swing on a pitch down and away and looping a single to short center that gave the Phils a 5-4 lead.

But with the Phillies bullpen this year, you can't count on anything until 27 outs are recorded. With the pitcher's spot due up followed by the top of the order Charlie Manuel called upon lefty Scott Eyre to start the ninth. Eyre retired two hitters, but allowed two to reach base, brining up Tulowitzki, Colorado's most dangerous hitter. At this point, Manuel went to the mound to bring in his beleagured closer, Brad Lidge. Lidge made no pretense about hit intent, throwing a slider for a called strike one. He then stayed with the slider exclusively, moving the count to 2-2. At 2-2, Lidge went with one more slider, which Tulowitzki realized a bit too late and could not hold up his swing, striking out to end the series.

Jubilation in Philadelphia. Deflation in Denver. This game four showed the resolve of a champion, but also the mettle of a worthy opponent.
Lidge has a long way to go to prove that he's completely back to his old self, but he looks better and saved two of the Phils three wins against the Rockies.

And now the Phillies head to the NLCS to take on the Dodgers for the second straight season. Get ready for another round of intense National League playoff games.

Division Series Wrap-Up

2009-10-12T19:16:00.000-07:00

Quick hitters, by series...

Dodgers- Cardinals
- This one was over the second that Matt Holiday took one off the, um, cajones.
- Cards looked content to just pack it in down 0-2, even though they were at home
- Matt Holliday and Brendan Ryan combined to go 3-24 in the series, with the only home run, RBI and run scored on a homer by Holliday in game two
- Conversely, Rafael Furcal and Andre Ethier both hit .500 for the Dodgers
- Ethier also hit two home runs and scored five times, which is one run fewer than the Cardinals team
- Albert Pujols didn't score a run and had one RBI... Holliday and Carpenter struggled, the Cards lost. It's just that simple
- The real drama begins now with the Cards, as Holliday is a free agent, as is manager Tony LaRussa, who has been rumored to have drawn interest in Cincinatti and Houston
- Whereever LaRussa goes, magic man pitching coach Dave Duncan is sure to follow
- The Dodgers won in large part thanks to their superior bullpen depth. Power arms live in the Dodger pen. Lots of 'em.

Yankees-Twins
- The Twins had so many chances to win Friday's game two, they'll probably think about it all off-season. I don't even have the time or the energy to recount them, particularly because of how angry they made me
- Joe Mauer's flare on the line in left in the 11th inning of game two was a double, yes. But when the bases are loaded with no one out, you have to score. Just that simple.
- Joe Nathan is too good a pitcher to groove a fastball that could tie a game to a hitter like A-Rod. That pitch, and alot of the series, looked like the Twins were affected by the big stage.
- The Yankees swept, but they'll have to play much better to win a series to beat a good team. Minnesota was the best in the AL Central, but clearly not on par with the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox.
- The Yankees hit only .225 against Minnesota, led by A-Rod going .445/2/6
- Yes, THAT A-Rod
- I heard Ken Rosenthal explain that this performance doesn't mean A-Rod is clutch, it's just that, like Barry Bonds several years ago, a player this good can't choke in the playoffs EVERY time
- The Yankees feasted on Twins mistakes- fielding, pitching, baserunning.
- The Angels don't make mistakes like that, nor do they beat themselves
- Nothing really to see here, the Yankees won three games against a team they should beat

Angels- Red Sox
-Wow. The Angels beat Boston in every way you can. They roughed up starters, squelched the lineup, roughed up middle relief, roughed up the closer.
- The Halos clearly are not intimidated by the Sox any longer
- Turns out the weakness Boston had, which I neglected to see, was the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury lead the Sawx with a .250 batting average in the series. Pedroia, Bay, Youkillis were all terrible.
- It's not hard to see why the Sox think they have a closer for the future in Daniel Bard
- Jonathan Papelbon picked a bad time to give up his first playoff runs ever
- The Angels look like the most focused, inspired team thus far. Maybe that's just a product of dominating the series, but they did so in impressive fashion

Phillies-Rockies
- The only non-sweep of the first round, these two played in two great playoff games in Denver
- Game four deserves it's own entry, which I'll start after I finish this
- Six of the Phils eight regulars hit over .300 in the series against the Rockies
- Carlos Gonzalez is going to be some kind of player. It seemed like he was on base every time he came to the plate. He can run, he's got a little pop, good arm, but he's got to get a bit better tracking balls in the outfield.
- Cliff Lee was a man in his first two playoff appearances. Two earned runs and 11 hits in 16.1 innings, with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio.
- Ubaldo Jimenez could be a complete dominator if he can refine a secondary pitch. He's got to be able to put hitters away better and keep his pitch counts down. Only 25, he throws an awful lot of pitches and innings, which worries me in terms of injury potential in the following season.
-Scott Eyre came up HUGE for the Phillies as a lefty specialist in the absence of J.C. Romero
-Yorvit Torrealba apparently is one of those players who is pretty ordinary during the season, but turns it on in the playoffs
- Colorado didn't play Ian Stewart or Brad Hawpe much in the series, opting instead for Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spillborghs/Seth Smith. That worked out for the Phillies, as lesser righthanded hitters were in the lineup against the Phils lefthanded starters.
- Clint Barmes pulled the ohfer. As in zero for the series.

Overarching Themes Across Multiple Series
- The umpiring in the Division Series' was terrible. Just awful. Big calls, bad strike zones, everything. However, since everyone was mad at the umpires, that probably means no one got screwed more than anyone else. I saw way, way too many managers jogging out to argue numerous calls.
- Very good 2009 regular season closers Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Franklin, Huston Street and Joe Nathan impode. Terrible 2009 regular season closer Brad Lidge goes perfect
- It seems like everyone made out trading or trading for Matt Holliday except for the A's. Holliday helped vault the Cardinals into the playoffs, while Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street helped Colorado win the NL wild card
- The Cardinals and Rockies combined to win only one playoff game, however
- MLB should be embarrassed to have some of these start times. If the Phillies had swept the Rockies, then some good fans with good 9-5 jobs (as in, those who buy tickets and merchandise) would not have been able to see even one game of the series, with games one and two during the afternoon in the work week, and game three starting at 10:05 on Sunday night, and not ending until 2:14 am. That's shameful to do to any team, never mind the defending World Series champions. And I'm not just saying that because I'm a Phillies fan, it's not fair for any team's fans to get the shaft like that. I'd venture to say that if you put on Phillies-Rockies at 7 pm and Yankees-Twins at 7 pm, the ratings would be comparable to the teams not playing in the same time slot. After all, why did baseball move to nights in the first place? More people can watch.

Playoff Day Two Wrap-Up

2009-10-09T07:20:00.000-07:00

Thoughts from the second of many late, late nights of baseball in the 2009 playoffs... Red Sox-Angels ends right before 1 am.... I'm a night owl, but playoff games are exhausting... Anyway, DAY TWO...

- Cole Hamels looked mighty average against the Rockies on Thursday. Surely, his wife going into labor weighed on his mind, but still. He stinks in day games, and doesn't look any better having whined about the start times.

- Can the Phillies ever actually nail a runner that Cole Hamels picks off? That's at least four times this year that Hamels has had a runner picked off but didn't record the out. And when I say that, I'm saying, Ryan Howard can't throw. Or at least, it's not Hamels' fault.

- Charlie Manuel didn't have the greatest day of his managerial career, but it wasn't nearly as bad as some people would have you believe. What's wrong with going to Pedro Martinez in game three, then coming back with Blanton or Happ in game four? The original plan would have had Blanton or Happ in game three and Pedro in game four. The big deal here is.... what exactly?

- The biggest problem Manuel has is that he doesn't have anyone to go to. Last year, he had J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, even Clay Condrey, with Brad Lidge anchoring the back end. Right now, Manuel can reliably go to Madson and Eyre in the pen. That's it. Desperation is the mother of invention, even when it comes to using starting pitchers in a relief role in the playoffs.

- Aaron Cook should not look that good in the playoffs. Ever. Ever. Ever.

- Antonio Bastardo looked like a legitimate lefthander out of the bullpen. He blew two fastballs by Jason Giambi, sandwiched around a hard slider to get out of a bases loaded jam. Impressive for a guy that threw one inning since mid-June.

- Sign number one it's the playoffs- Cliff Lee was used as a pinch runner in the ninth inning of game two.

- Adam Wainwright came as advertised.

- So did Clayton Kershaw.

- Matt Holliday has got to be sick about the ninth inning of game two. He ran a long way to get to the ball hit by James Loney, but he's got to catch that. Losing that game could become the Cardinals version of the Bill Buckner incident.

- Even after the error, Ryan Franklin needs to get out someone out of Casey Blake, Ronnie Belliard, Russell Martin and Mark Loretta.

- I don't care what his regular season numbers were, Ryan Franklin stinks.

- Worst facial hair of the playoffs? Right now, the contenders are Brendan Ryan, Jason Giambi and Ryan Franklin. Giambi is the early leader in the clubhouse.

- BIG BIG BIG win for the Angels. After going 1-9 against the BoSox in their playoff matchups of 2004, 07 and 08, the Angels needed to get off to a good start, and did just that. John Lackey dominated the Sawx lineup and Torii Hunter's blast gave the Halos all the offense they needed.

- Hunter getting fired up in the dugout was more like a linebacker getting fired up after a big stick on special teams.

- Be careful bouncing the helmet like that in a confined space, Torii. I had visions of that thing bouncing up and clocking someone right under the eye.

- Jon Lester didn't have great command, as evidenced by his four walks. His defense made him work harder than he should have had to, however.

- Ramon Ramirez had a bit of a meltdown for the Sox when the game was still within reach. One inning, two runs, three hits, a walk, a hit batter and the last out of the inning coming on a runner cut down at the plate. Not exactly the way to keep it close.

- Daniel Bard. Wow. I sense man-crushville in his future.

- Rough night for the umpiring crew in Anaheim, especially home plate umpire Joe West (overrated) and first base umpire C.B. Bucknor (just not that good). Both drew plenty of ire from both managers, and West especially drew the ire of Lester.

- Boston issued five walks and committed three errors. Anaheim issued one walk and committed no errors. If you don't play clean in October, you don't win.

Playoff Day One Wrap-Up

2009-10-08T05:43:00.000-07:00

It's late and I'm tired, so please excuse any incorrect spelling or syntax. But here are my immediate thoughts after Wednesday's (and into Thursday morning) action...

- Cliff Lee was dominating against Colorado, giving up only a garbage-time run to the Rockies. He worked quick, he was aggressive, he stayed ahead of hitters and worked both sides of the plate. Masterful performance by Lee.

- Yorvit Torrealba is terrible trying to nail base stealers. Cliff Lee stole second for crying out loud. The Phillies clearly made it a point to run on Torrealba, and he did nothing to slow them down. Gunning Ryan Howard isn't exactly a prized kill, and Howard beat the throw but short legged the slide. Chris Iannetta is better defensively, but isn't nearly the hitter. We'll see how Jim Tracy plays that.

- Judging by ninth inning bullpen activity (Ryan Madson and J.A. Happ), Charlie Manuel looks ready to use whoever is the best matchup to close games out this postseason.

- Games three and four for the Phillies will be started by two of the three that aren't used out of the pen between Joe Blanton, Happ, and Pedro Martinez. Because of Colorado's struggle with lefthanders, I'd be shocked if he didn't get a start.

- The wind affected a few plays in the game, most notably on Jayson Werth's blast to left that would have been gone by 20 rows on most days. Upon reaching third with a triple, Werth visibly expressed his disbelief that the ball hadn't left the yard and appeared to mouth an incredulous "I hit the (bleeping bleep) out of that ball." Indeed, each fly ball was an adventure in the Phils-Rocks matchup, particularly those hit to the left side.

- The biggest at-bat in the Phils-Rocks game was turned in by Carlos Ruiz, who turned in a great at-bat against Ubaldo Jimenez that culminated in an RBI hit that put the Phils up 2-0. Ruiz fouled off a 1-2 pitch, took a ball, then spit on a tough breaking ball that was just inside to make the count 3-2. He then fouled off another pitch before driving a ball to right to give the Phillies a multi-run lead, and they would never look back.

- The Twins looked like a team that played a 12-inning elimination game 1500 miles away 20 hours prior.

- Phil Hughes is better as a setup man than I thought

- Francisco Liriano is nowhere close to his pre-Tommy John surgery self.

- Hong-Chih Kuo can bring it. He blew away Troy Glaus with straight gas.

- The Dodger bullpen is deep with power arms, anchored by Jonathan Broxton and his 100 mph last pitch of the game.

- It appears easy enough to not let Albert Pujols beat you. Walk him.

- Good day: Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth, Carlos Ruiz, Derek Jeter, Phil Hughes, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Kemp

- Bad day: Yorvit Torrealba, Ubaldo Jimenez, Phillies-Rockies umpiring crew, Brian Duensing, Chris Carpenter

- Finally, the fourth Division Series matchup kicks off Thursday in Anaheim, with the Red Sox taking on the Angels for the fourth time in six seasons. On his blog, Curt Schilling offers his analysis of the series. Schilling may be seen as a blowhard by some, but he is undeniably one of the more thoughtful and articulate players to pass through MLB in the last generation. And if anyone is qualified to analyze this series, it would be Schilling, who pitched for the Red Sox against Anaheim in '04 and '07, and was on the DL in '08.

- Finally, you've got to be kidding me.

Playoff Preview From My iPod

2009-10-06T12:45:00.000-07:00

Hello
Let me introduce you to
The characters
In the show
"I Dare You" by Shinedown

The biggest show in baseball is nearly here. And the characters should be familiar. Of the eight teams in the playoff field, all eight have been in its League Championship Series since 2002, six have been to the World Series since 2002 (the Dodgers and Twins are the only teams that haven't), and five have won the whole thing this decade.

For many years now, ESPN's John Buccigross has used song lyrics in his NHL season preview columns, using a couple of lines that he found to be especially apropos for that team in that particular season. I've decided to adapt this concet in my preview of the 2009 MLB Playoffs, and to give 'Bucci' dap for it, since it's not my idea. As you can see, my iPod has a hard rock edge to it. Without further ado...

American League

1) New York Yankees---

And all you seek
And all you gain
And all you step on with no shame
There are no rules
No one to blame
The price to play the game
"Price to Play" by Staind

Overview: The Yankees enter the 2009 post-season as the de facto favorite in the mind of many. Their 103-59 record in the regular season was six games better than the second best record in baseball. Offensively, the Yankees set the pace for everyone, leading MLB in runs, home runs, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The numbers are likely skewed by their new hitter-friendly ballpark, but regardless, the lineup is legit from 1-9. The offseason additions of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have also stabilized the front of the rotation, which sorely lacked horses at the lead the last few seasons. However, in New York, making the playoffs is the very, very least that is expected, and now the real season- and the real expectations- begin anew for the Bronx Bombers.

What Could Go Right: The lineup of mashers overwhelms their opponents. The starting staff does a good job front-runner, taking advantage of strong run support from the offense. C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte all pitch well enough to get the game right to Mariano Rivera.

What Could Go Wrong: Sabathia lives up to his 7.92 career playoff ERA, Burnett continues his meltdown, and Pettitte shows his age. Joba Chamberlain, who stinks, is needed. Middle relief falters again and can't get the ball to The Sandman. A-Rod continues to struggle in the playoffs and he pulls the lineup down around him.

Bottom Line: The lineup will almost certainly score runs, so the Yankees ultimate fate in 2009 rests with how well the starting pitchers perform.

2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim---

Our scars remind us
That the past is real
"Scars" by Papa Roach

Overview: No team is dealing with as much heading into the opening round of the playoffs as the Angels. LA's other team will play the Red Sox in the ALDS, a team that has eliminated the Halos three times in the past five seasons. The 2009 season started off in trying fashion with the tragic death of 22-year old pitcher Nick Adenhardt hours after his season debut. Ace reliever Scot Shields was lost for the season after 20 games. And in a late-season series in Boston, manager Mike Scioscia and closer Brian Fuentes insinuated that the Fenway crowds get into the heads of umpires, which means that either the Fenway crowds, or the umpires, or both, have gotten into their own heads. But this team doesn't win 95 games a year on accident, and they are a formidible, tough, scrappy bunch heading into the post-season.

What Could Go Right: When you can roll out John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir in a short series, you've got a chance. The Angels don't hit for power, but their speed game never slumps, they don't make mistakes, and they make you pay for yours. Pitching, speed, defense and execution is a good combination come playoff time.

What Could Go Wrong: Bobby Abreu is their best hitter, and he's never been one to shy away from trying to stand there get a big walk. Fuentes has been shaky at times this year, and the playoffs would be a bad time for that to re-appear. The Angels lack of power is completely overwhelmed by the power arms Boston rolls out. The Red Sox and/or Fenway Park and its crowd remain in the Angels collective heads.

Bottom Line: Maybe it's just the matchups, but the Angels can't seem to shake Boston. But if they can, they've fared pretty well against the Yankees in recent years, particularly in the playoffs.

3) Minnesota Twins---

Do you bury me when I'm gone?
Do you teach me while I'm here?
Just as soon as I belong
Then it's time I disappear
"I Disappear" by Metallica

Overview: The Twins trailed the Tigers by seven games on September 6th, and trailed by three games with only four left to play. It took until the 12th inning of the thrilling 163rd game, but the Twins finally came all the way back and took the AL Central title from Detroit, all the while playing without Justin Morneau since September 12th. However, the combination of chasing down the Tigers, and then the one-game playoff, then playing in New York the next day is probably too much to come back from in a short series.

What Could Go Right: The Twins are a 'whole is greater than the sum of their parts' kind of team. They're scrappy, run well, move runners, pitch well enough and have a great go-to guy in MVP level catcher Joe Mauer. If they can get an early lead in a game or the series, the Yankees could start to feel the pressure they're under, similar to the Cubs in 2008. The Twins are just young enough to not recognize how tired they are and that they're not supposed to even compete with the Yankees. Joe Nathan shuts it down and serves as a late-inning neutralizer to the Yankee lineup.

What Could Go Wrong: The Yankee lineup completely overwhelms the ace-less Twins staff. The Twins fall too far behind in games one and two to even get their feet under them after the play-in win over Detroit. The Yankees are just a better team, and beat the Twins in all seven regular season matchups in 2009.

Bottom Line: The Twins have done an amazing job making the playoffs five times since 2002 with a bad stadium, small market, and losing players such as David Ortiz and Torii Hunter in that time frame. However, they haven't had the elements to win in the playoffs, and I don't think that will change this season.

4) Boston Red Sox---

When no one understands at this point
That a handful of redemption's all we need
"Handful of Redemption" by Boy Sets Fire

Overview: The trip to the playoffs is a familiar one for the Red Sox, who have been a part of the post-season derby every year but one since 2003. However, they're still left with the sting of losing in seven games to a Tampa Bay team they were probably better than in last year's ALCS, and enter this year's playoffs looking to make amends. As September shifts to October, the Sawx may be the team best set up to make a run in October. They have starting pitching, bullpen depth, a lockdown closer, and a lineup that remains formidable despite have a few spots that have shown age. The Sox also have playoff experience, grit, and several old war horses that are sure to crank it up with everything on the line.

What Could Go Right: Power arms win in the playoffs, especially out of the bullpen, and you would be hard pressed to find more power than Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon coming out of any pen. Add in lefty specialist Hideki Okajima, and the Sox have the ability to shut a game down after five or six innings. Veterans like Jason Varitek and David Ortiz play with an awful lot of pride on the line, and have always come through when the games matter the most. Leading in with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and a revitalized Dice-K don't hurt the cause. Neither does having MVP caliber players like Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.

What Could Go Wrong: Ortiz and Varitek look old, creating two big holes in the lineup. Dice-K looks more like the first half of the year, Buchholz gets overwhelmed by the big stage, Beckett's struggles continue. The Angels get over their Sawx-related issues.

Bottom Line: On the eve of the playoffs, the Red Sox are the team with the fewest questions. All of the areas for concern are pretty well addressed. Surprises and upsets do happen, but this team will not go down easily, because they don't have a discernable weakness that could drag them down and cost them games repeatedly. But that's certainly not to say they're going to win it all, or even the first round. But their flaws are not as obvious or exploitable as those of other playoff teams.

National League

1) Los Angeles Dodgers---

'Cause yesterday's got nothing for me
Old pictures that I'll always see
Time just fades the pages
In my book of memories
"Yesterdays" by Guns N' Roses

Overview: Joe Torre and Manny Ramirez grab all of the headlines and play prominently in the dream World Series scenarios of fans and media alike, but the past glory of Torre and Ramirez aren't going to help a Dodger team that staggered to the finish line. Perhaps no top-seeded team in any sport has held that top seed with as tenuous a grasp as the Dodgers hang onto the number one seed in the 2009 NL playoffs. When Randy Wolf is slated to start game one of the playoffs for you, you know things aren't going real well.

What Could Go Right: The young core of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney continues its ascension to the upper echelon of young talent with another strong postseason outing. The bullpen is pretty good, probably the best of the NL playoff field, and more than capable of shutting down a game in which the Dodgers have a late lead.

What Could Go Wrong: Manny Ramirez' final numbers look alright, but look at his pre and post suspension splits... .355 vs. 255, 9 home runs in 36 games vs. 10 in 68, only two more runs scored after his suspension than before in 32 games more. Not good. Since the Manny got to the Dodgers, they go as he goes, and he hasn't gone much of anywhere lately. Randy Wolf starting game one, Chad Billingsley being so bad that Vicente Padilla gets talked about potentially getting a start... these are not good scenarios for the Dodgers.

Bottom Line: Sometimes a team will slide down the stretch and turn it on in the playoffs and make a run (see: 2005 White Sox). I don't think this is one of them, not with their starting pitching in the state it's in.

2) Philadelphia Phillies---

Help!
I need somebody
Help!
Not just anybody
Help!
You know I need someone
HELP!
"Help" by the Beatles

Overview: On paper, the 2008 world champs might be the best team in baseball. A bruising lineup, deep bullpen, and perfect closer were augmented with a more steady producer in left with Raul Ibanez, and the 2008 AL Cy Young winner in Cliff Lee. However, as Kenny Mayne was fond of saying, games aren't played on paper, they're played inside of television sets. The lineup remained great, Raul became an instant hit in Philadelphia, Cliff Lee was a great pickup, but the bullpen completely fell apart. Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero, Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre all missed significant time to injury (and in Romero's case, suspension too), while Brad Lidge went from the best closer's season ever to one of the worst, blowing 11 saves in 42 chances. Ryan Madson remained dominant in a setup role, but was about 50-50 as the closer, and even a few more potential contenders to the throne (Chan Ho Park, Brett Myers) were felled by injury. The Phillies bullpen situation remains the single biggest question in the postseason, and could ensure another Phillies world title, or cause an early exit.

What Could Go Right: Lee and Cole Hamels lock down the first two games of each series, followed by a steady stream of quality starters in Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and/or Pedro Martinez. The lineup pounds teams and makes it easy to front run the starting pitchers. The starters are economical with their pitches to limit bullpen innings. Madson is the only reliever the Phils have to use. Lidge shakes off the regular season, and buyoed by a clean slate, pitches decent enough to close consistently.

What Could Go Wrong: Chase Utley continues to struggle in the playoffs. The regulars remain worn down from all the at-bats in the regular season. The injury bug continues to bite... And, of course, the back end of the bullpen, no matter who it is, explodes.

Bottom Line: If you give me the Phillies pitching numbers in save situations in this year's playoffs, I'll tell you how far they went. Sometimes baseball is a very simple game. Analyzing the Phillies' chances in 2009 is one such time.

3) St. Louis Cardinals---

I'ma do the things that I want to do
I ain't got a thing to prove to you
I'll eat my candy with the pork and beans
Excuse my manners if I make a scene
I ain't gonna wear the clothes that you like
I'm fine and dandy with the me inside
One look in the mirror and I'm tickled pink
I don't give a hoot about what you think
"Pork and Beans" by Weezer

Overview: Tony LaRussa has spent a long time managing in the Major Leagues, doing things his own way. Some people like him, some can't stand him, but no one can argue with the success he's had. Joined by his reliable deputy, pitching coach Dave Duncan, the Cardinals are perenially in the hunt for the National League pennant, and this year, like many others, the Cards are getting seemingly miraculous seasons out of players found on the scrap heap. Players like Ryan Franklin, Joel Piniero, Joe Thurston and Skip Schumacher. I'd call it luck, except LaRussa's teams always come up with these guys. But make no mistake: the Cardinals are dependent on four guys. Four. Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Whatever the Cards get out of these four will be what they get out of this playoff run.

What Could Go Right: Wainwright and Carpenter win two games a series, and Holliday and Pujols keep tearing the cover off the ball.

What Could Go Wrong: What's listed above doesn't happen.

Bottom Line: Barring a huge playoff outing from a guy like Brendan Ryan or Rick Ankiel or Jason Motte, the Cardinals fortunes really do ride on their big four. Other teams know it too, and are likely to try to make Schumacher and Mark DeRosa and Yadier Molina, etc try to make the difference.

4) Colorado Rockies---

Into the flood again
Same old trip it was back then
"Would?" by Alice in Chains

Overview: The Rockies enter the playoffs as the Wild Card team taking on the Phillies for the second time in three years, looking to use a hot September as a springboard into the postseason. This year's edition is an apparent amalgamation of themselves from 2007 and the Marlins of 2003. In 2007, the Rockies won 14 of their last 15 regular season games to snag the NL Wild Card, then captured seven straight playoff games to advance to the World Series. This year, the Rockies won 18 games in September to leap over the Giants for the NL Wild Card, and played to within the final weekend of catching the Dodgers for the NL West title. The '03 Marlins started out 16-22 and fired manager Jeff Torborg, replacing him Jack McKeon. McKeon then guided the Marlins to a 75-49 record the rest of the way, winning the NL Wild Card, and eventually, the World Series. This year's Rockies started 18-28, fired manager Clint Hurdle, and under the guidance of Jim Tracy, have gone 74-42 and have taken the NL Wild Card. How much further the parrallels extend remains to be seen. But you don't go 74-42 over any stretch if you're not a very good team.

What Could Go Right: The Rocks continue to ride the wave of momentum that has carried them into the playoffs. They've clearly shown that they're the type of team that plays it's best in the second half when the games matter the most.

What Could Go Wrong: The Rockies struggle against left-handed pitching, and the Phillies are likely to trot out three lefties in the first round. The loss of Jorge de la Rosa could leave a void they can't easily fill. Middle relief gets pounded by better lineups in the playoffs than they face all year in the NL West. Jason Marquis remembers that he's Jason Marquis.

Bottom Line: The Rockies are a tough out, but they're pitching is probably playing over its head. However, they are playing better entering the playoffs than the other three NL playoff entrants. But as the saying goes, momemtum is tomorrow's starting pitcher, which probably equalizes that factor. The Rockies are good enough to win a round or two, but aren't as good as the Phillies or Cardinals, so if they do it will most likely be because they're opponent played poorly. Which could very well happen.

AL Predictions:
ALDS: Yankees over Twins (3-0), Red Sox over Angels (3-1)
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees (4-2)
ALCS MVP: Jason Bay

NL Predictions:
NLDS: Cardinals over Dodgers (3-1)
I don't predict games or series that my teams are in, so I'm not picking anything NL wise unless or until the Phillies are eliminated

The First Playoff Game

2009-10-05T23:56:00.000-07:00

Who doesn't love a one-game playoff? Ok, if you're team is in one you probably don't, but for the rest of us it's fun. Who doesn't remember Bucky (bleeping) Dent hitting a home run in the one-game playoff against Boston in 1978?

The fun part about one-game playoffs is that they are often the result of a titanic gag down the stretch. The 1978 Red Sox held a 14 game lead on the Yankees on July 19th, only to have the Yanks catch fire and force a 163rd game of the season, which they won on Dent's home run. The 1995 California Angels also couldn't handle their on their own success, turning a six game lead on September 12th into an extra game against the Seattle Mariners, which they lost, 9-1, to Randy Johnson's complete game, three-hit, 12-strikeout domination.

My favorite one-game playoff memory is from 1998, when the Cubs and Giants met up at Wrigley Field to determine the NL Wild Card entrant. With the Cubs up 5-0 going to the ninth inning, the Giants scored twice. With runners on first and third and one out, the Cubs went to their closer, the late Rod Beck. Beck ended up pitching five out of six days down the stretch in 1998, and the extra game was his 81st of the season. At this point Beck was on fumes, but he was a gamer and would always take the ball when called upon. Jon Miller, calling the game for ESPN, called one of Beck's pitches "Change-up in for a strike at 75 miles an hour" to which Miller's longtime broadcast partner Joe Morgan replied "Actually Jon, that was his FASTBALL." Beck held on for the save.

That's what it's all about this time of year, getting it done, no matter what's left in the tank.

So who get's it done today with the Twins taking on the Tigers? The Tigers, playing with the weight of a beaten down city, or the Twins, playing for another day in the Metrodome. The Tigers have the bigger distraction, with recent news about Miguel Cabrera, and also have 20-year old Rick Porcello the mound in the biggest game of the season. I don't care how good you are, how poised you are, whatever, being 20 and under that pressure is pretty intense.

I've seen articles written in the last two days that say obviously the Twins will win, or obviously the Tigers will. I have no idea, and I can't even get my head around who I think has the upper hand.

But it should be fun. Extra baseball is never a bad thing.

Even if your reward for winning is taking on the Yankees in the first round.

Coming Soon: Red October II

2009-10-01T12:27:00.000-07:00

Here at The Hanging Slidepiece, I'd like to take a moment to congratulate all of the teams that have qualified for the postseason thus far, especially the local nine in Philadelphia.

I'd also like to take a moment to congratulate myself on a superb job predicting that the Phillies would clinch the NL East on Tuesday night.

True enough, the Phils are too good to keep playing as poorly as they have at home, while the Braves aren't good enough to keep playing as well as they have everywhere since September 10th. So it wasn't exactly like predicting Eric Bruntlett would turn a game-ending unassisted triple play two months before it happened, but I'll take it.

The Phils took out Houston on Tuesday night largely on the strength of a grand slam by Pedro Feliz. With the score tied at 1-1 in the fourth, Feliz stepped up with the bases loaded and no outs and smacked the first pitch he saw over the wall in left for a 5-1 Phillies lead which was never seriously threatened in a 7-4 Phillies win. The pitch Feliz hit out? A hanging slidepiece, of course.

By virtue of the Braves loss to Josh Johnson (isn't he starting at QB for the Buccaneers this Sunday?) and the Marlins, the Phils only had to beat Houston to clinch their third straight NL East title. The official clinch came in Atlanta, when, down one run with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth inning, Matt Diaz inexplicably got picked off of third base after a pitch in the dirt. The Phillies did not post the score in the stadium, however, and when Brad Lidge retired Lance Berkman on one pitch to end the Phils 10-3 win over the Astros, the celebration was on.

By the way, Charlie Manuel bringing in Lidge, who has struggled mightily in 2009, the way he did in order to get the last out and wrap up a divison title was one of the classiest on-field things I've ever seen from a coach or manager. When you see things like that, you know why guys play so hard and have so much respect for Manuel.

Now that the Phillies are officially in the playoffs, many, many issues remain. Let's examine the most prominent...

1) Who is the closer?

Well, let's do process of elimination. It's not Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, Clay Condrey, Sergio Escalona, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker, Scott Eyre or J.C. Romero. That leaves Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge and Brett Myers. I think Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee will end up treating each playoff game like a football game, putting one of the three in the game, hoping for the best, and having someone else ready at all times if that day's chosen one doesn't have it. This is the single biggest question the Phillies face, and it could determine whether they repeat, or go out in the first round.

2) Who's in the starting rotation?

Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Joe Blanton appear to be locks. The fourth starter could depend upon the health of Pedro Martinez (likely) or a matchup against a team that struggles with lefties like Colorado (less likely). Whoever does not start game four will be expected to help out of the bullpen, and if it's Martinez, he may find himself in the closer's role.

3) Who's injured?

Everyone. Ok, not everyone. But the list of players still dealing with injuries includes Carlos Ruiz, Raul Ibanez, Greg Dobbs, Chan Ho Park, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre. Obviously, this list disproportinately hits the bullpen, which makes the starters going deep into games that much more important.

4) Can the bench contribute anything?

No.

5) Seriously?

Well, maybe Matt Stairs can land a big blow like last year, but he's a year older now. Greg Dobbs was too hurt and didn't get enough at-bats this year to get into a rhythm. Ben Francisco could help, or he could be invisible. Everyone else is completely drawing dead.

6) Can this team repeat?

Yes they can. They have a deep starting staff, a great lineup, grit, and playoff experience. They have as good a chance as anyone.

7) Will this team repeat?

I'm not predicting that either way. I'm just superstitious enough that I'm not making any pronouncements regarding my beloved team. But you can look forward to an extended playoff preview soon, complete this lists, rankings and a few frivolities.

Phold Redux?

2009-09-29T15:28:00.000-07:00

It couldn't happen again. Could it? In a word, I sure hope not.

In 1964, the Philadelphia Phillies held a 6.5 game lead on the Cincinnatti Reds with only 12 games remaining in the regular season. The city was pumped. There was no NLDS or NLCS in those days, so with the Phils a shoo-in for the Fall Classic, World Series tickets were printed.

On September 21st, with the Phils and Reds locked in a scoreless game, Reds infielder Chico Ruiz unbelievably stole home with Frank Robinson at the plate, giving the Reds a 1-0 win and precipitating an epic 10-game losing streak for the Phils, turning that 6.5 game lead into a 2.5 game deficit from which they never recovered. Phils manager Gene Mauch (rightly) drew the brunt of the criticism for the collapse, deciding to ride his two best pitchers, Jim Bunning and Chris Short, down the stretch. I'm all for riding your best horses, but Mauch started Bunning and Short seven times in the last 10 games, with all but one of those starts coming on only TWO days of rest. Unwilling to sacrifice one game to give his team a boon the next day, the ineffective Bunning and Short gamely took the ball, but were unable to stem the tide and get the Phillies righted. After leading the NL by 6.5 games on September 20th, the Phils actually finished the season in third place.

It's hard to describe the impact of that collapse on the psyche of a city if you haven't lived here. To this day grown men- big, strong, tough men- still get visibly affected at the mention of Chico Ruiz or the 'Phold of '64.' Even last year's phenomenal run to the World Series title has not erased the memory of '64 for men of a certain age in the Delaware Valley.

Because of the anguish caused by the collapse, anytime a Phillies team sputters a little bit down the stretch the ghost of 1964 is invoked. It happened in 1993 when Macho Row showed some signs of wear. And it's happening again right now. Like, RIGHT NOW, as I'm typing this post.

The 2009 Phillies are not the 1964 Phillies. Not even close. Perhaps not in its present state, but this current era of the Phils is the best in club history. Period. Stop talking about 1980, and 1977 and whenever else. The late 00s Phillies are the best in team history.

And the best era in team history does not pull off a gag reminiscient of 1964.

The September 29th, 2009 edition of the Phillies has issues, no doubt. A leaky bullpen is chief among them. But all four infielders and all three outfielders look worn out. How else do you explain a two-hit performance by the NL's best offense against a pitcher with a season ERA over 8.00? Look at the at-bat totals. All seven regulars will have over 550 plate appearances after tonight. The bench has produced little all year, necessitating that the regulars keep playing.

But this team has more heart than any in baseball, and worn out or not, leaky bullpen or not, this team will not allow itself to go down in a heap like it's 1964.

So the lead over Atlanta has shrunk from eight to four since September 20th. The Braves are hot and are playing the 'packed it in' Marlins and the historically bad Nationals the rest of the way, while the Phils play an Astro team they can't seem to beat and those same Marlins. The populace may be getting antsy, maybe nervous in some corners, but there are no flukes over a 162-game season, and the Phillies will prevail as NL East champs for the third consecutive year. Because, for the third consecutive year, the Phillies are the best team in the NL East.

And I will make a prediction about when, too. I predict the Phillies will clinch the division Wednesday night with a win over the Astros. The game would mark the two year anniversary of coming all the way back from seven down with 17 to play and overtaking the Mets on the last day of the regular season. It would also mark the second time in three years the Phillies clinched a division on my birthday.

Call it a hunch, blind faith, or whatever you will. But this Phillies team will not let history repeat itself.

Brad Lidge

2009-09-24T13:13:00.000-07:00

Brad Lidge is the Phillies' biggest weakness. There, I said it. A charter member of my 'Man Crush' list, I've supported Lidge staying in his role as the closer for the Phillies longer than many fans have.

But no more.

In 2008, Lidge was a perfect 41-41 in save opportunities in the regular season, posting an ERA of 1.95 and striking out 92 in 65.1 innings. This season he's 31-42 in save chances, with an ERA of 7.48 and one fewer walk than last year in 14 fewer innings. He's also allowed 11 home runs (compared to two last year), and for the Sabermetric minded, his ERA+ in 2008 was 225, while this year it's 57. You don't need to know a thing about ERA+ to know that a drop of 168 points in any statistic is not good.

Watching Lidge pitch at this point is painful. When he enters a game, a feeling of dread enters the air. When a runner gets on base, there's not even deliberation as to whether or not a run will score. Is his knee bothering him? Maybe. But his issues appear to be more related to what's going on between the ears than with anything else. The two intangible factors any player has to have in order to be successful are a good approach and confidence.

Lidge's approach is all screwed up. Despite his struggles, his stuff remains alright. Maybe too alright. Lidge throws a fastball and a slider, but the slider is really two pitches. There is the 'get me over' slider, which he tries to throw for a strike, and then there's the 'put away' slider, which he throws to get strike three. He knows his put away slider is pretty much unhittable when it's moving right, which is what makes it an outstanding strikeout pitch. However, last I checked, you can't strike out anyone on a 0-0 count, but Lidge continues to throw 'put away' sliders on the first pitch. Hitters simply take the pitch, which puts the count in their favor and swings control in their direction, and puts Lidge on the defensive. Robbed of the end-of-an-at-bat hammer and in a position where he has to throw a strike, Lidge is consistently getting beat on his second-tier stuff. (And yes, I know, he has had significant issues with fastball command... but he always does, even when he's good).

The other intangible that has almost become tangible with Lidge this year is his confidence. He doesn't trust that he can get the job done. You can see it in his facial expressions, his body language, even how many deep breaths he takes. All of these get more and more tense as an inning unravels for him, almost like he awaits the roof caving in on him. Closers are like cornerbacks in the NFL. You're going to get beat, not everything is going to go your way, but if you can't forget about it instantly, you're not going to be effective until you do.

Big picture wise, the big, big problem with Lidge's struggle is that the Phils have no other good options. Ryan Madson is great in the eighth inning, but has blown about as many as he's saved when it's been his turn in the ninth. Other would be contenders have been negated by injury or ineffectiveness. At this point, I would give Tyler Walker a chance. He has closed before, even saving 23 of 28 for the Giants in 2005. I'm not saying I'd go into the playoffs with him in the ninth, but I'd spend the next week and a half figuring out if I could.

As negative as my stance towards Lidge sits right now, I don't think he's done. This is what Lidge does, it's the pattern of his career. He's great, he stinks. The pendulum has never swung as wildly as it has between last year and this year, but his career stats show that he's prone to a clunker of a season every so often. So I do think Lidge will be back in the closer's role for the Phillies again, and will pitch as effectively as any closer in baseball.

Just not this season.

Jerry Crasnick

2009-09-23T09:51:00.000-07:00

I like Jerry Crasnick. For those unfamiliar, he's a baseball writer for espn.com, and generally exhibits that he's well connected and knows his stuff. He wrote two pieces over the past few days that are worth reading.

The first, the weekly edition of his Starting 9 Column, examines players who are at the 'put up or shut up' portion of their careers as the 2009 season ends and we look toward next season a little bit. Off the top of my head, I would add Jose Reyes, Joba Chamberlain and Dan Uggla to Crasnick's list.

The second recent article from Crasnick is about Phillies rightfielder Jayson Werth. It's easy for Werth to get lost on the national landscape because of how many stars he plays with, but at 30, Werth has earned his keep as a key player on a very good team. One of the more intersting aspects of the story to me is the role the fans seemed to have played in the playoffs last season.

The Games Are Meaningless, but the News Isn't

2009-09-22T12:41:00.000-07:00

- The Astros fired Cecil Cooper with only 13 games remaining in the season. Not a surprise I guess. Cooper seems like a good guy, and owner Drayton McLain is very loyal, but the change was made regardless. GM Ed Wade has to know that his head will be the next to roll if the team does not improve significantly.

- The Cubs sent Milton Bradley home for the remainder of the 2009 season. The good news is that he's still got two years and $21 million owed to him by the Cubs. Which begs the question... who didn't see that one coming? Bradley's spectacular flameout in Chicago underscores even further what a great fit Raul Ibanez, the other 30-something outfielder on the free agent market last off-season, has been for the Phillies.

- The Twins ratcheted up the pressure on Detroit just a smidge more with a 7-0 win over the White Sox on Monday night. Minnesota sits only 2.5 games behind the Tigers now, with a huge four-game set still remaining between the two teams starting next Monday.

- Joe Saunders and the Angels kept the Yankees from wrapping up a playoff spot for at least another day, as Saunders pitched into the ninth in the Halos' 5-2 win over the Bronx Bombers on Monday night. Clinching playoff spots is a mere formality for both of these teams, however, and it's a matchup I'd be far more interested in three weeks from now instead of right now.

- Kevin Millwood hit statistical markers in his contract that will trigger a $12 million deal tying him to the Rangers for 2010. Too bad for the Rangers. Millwood has always had conditioning issues, and seemingly has a reputation bigger than his actual performance. Since leaving Atlanta after 2002, Millwood has been a bit of a baseball vagabond, shuffling from one non-playoff team to another.

- Joe Posnanski agrees with my summation of the MLB pennant races with only a week and a half left in the regular season.

-Scott Lauber of the Wilmington (DE) News Journal reports via Twitter that Scott Eyre is ready to pitch in games, which gives the Phillies one legitimate lefthanded reliever. The Phils still await the return of J.C. Romero from a forearm strain.

The Dog Days of September

2009-09-21T12:21:00.000-07:00

Where, oh where have you gone, pennant races? Here we are, September 21st, and I can't get into any of the games that will be played over the next two weeks. None of them. That could change depending on what happens, but most likely, we're headed towards a yawn fest for the last two weeks.

The only series that appears worth paying attention to over the next two weeks is the Tigers hosting the Twins for four next Monday through Thursday. The Tigers are trying hard to give this division to the Justin Morneau-less Twins, going 4-9 in their last 13 while watching their AL Central lead shrink to three games entering Monday's action.

The Tigers confound me a bit. Looking at their statistics, it's hard to believe they're in first place. They've actually been outscored by three runs for the season. Offensively, in terms of runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS and stolen bases, the Tigers rank no better than ninth in the AL in any category. To me, that says they don't do anything especially well offensively.

So they must be lights out on the mound, right? Well, no. The Tigers rank 7th-9th (fully average) in the AL in ERA, opponent batting average, opponent OPS and WHIP. The Tigers have also issued the second most walks in the league, behind only Cleveland.

So how are they in first place? The easy answer is that everyone else in the division stinks, as the Central is the clear weak sister in the American League in 2009. Three of the bottom four team ERAs in the AL reside in the central. The good news is that all of the Tigers remaing regular-season games are against AL Central foes. The bad news is that Detroit has only put up a 13-12 record against teams in the Central in the second half. Bottom line on the Central is that whoever wins it really isn't that good.

But why are the other five divisions so boring? That's pretty easy, actually. Around baseball there are (by my count) six teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers) that are really, really good, 10 teams (Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mets, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Padres, Diamondbacks) that are really, really bad, and 14 teams (everyone else) that are just good enough to beat the bad teams and just good enough to get you beat by the really good teams.

So, the really good teams rise above everyone, the bad teams sink to the bottom, and the other teams smack around in the middle, with too many games against bad teams to sink, but too many games against good teams to rise out of mediocrity.

And this creates boring September baseball, where the only things that can happen to playoff bound teams are bad (see: injury).

There are no flukes over the duration of 162 games. I'm not making any playoff predictions just yet, but you can rightfully say that I'd be shocked if this year's World Series champs were not among the six teams I have labelled as really, really good.

Really?

2009-09-17T07:23:00.000-07:00

- Really? The Mets are second in the National League in batting average in 2009. SECOND, with an average of .270. Of course, they hit a home run every three weeks, so it takes too many hits for them to sustain offense, and that's not going to work with the guys they have playing.

- Really? Pedro Martinez is second in the NL in opponent swing and misses in the month of September.

- Really? Charlie Manuel is letting his starters throw a lot of pitches lately. Why? My guess is that he's got two reasons 1) the bullpen is hurt and ineffective right now and 2) because of number one, Charlie is trying to stretch his starters out and get them used to throwing deep into games for the playoffs. Because, Really? who would you rather have in the ninth inning of a playoff game, tired Cliff Lee or fresh Brett Myers/Brad Lidge/ Ryan Madson?

- Really? Boston and the Angels matched up in a crazy game at Fenway last night, including a ninth-inning, two-out at bat by Nick Green that appeared to feature him strike out twice. Ball four to Green especially appeared to be strike three. But the Sawx are hot, and are taking a stranglehold on the AL Wild Card, up 6.5 games on Texas with only two and a half weeks to play.

- Really? Aaron Crow may want to play pro ball after all. Bout time.

- Really? Jorge Posada decides its a good idea to throw an elbow on his way by a pitcher after scoring a run? The pitcher, Jesse Carlson, was MAD, as he should have been. That's a weasel move by a guy who knows better. Two Blue Jays got hit by Yankee pitchers, and to stand up for his teammates, Carlson threw behind Posada, but did not hit him (Posada eventually walked). Look, genius, two of their guys got hit... you didn't. You got thrown behind. Take your walk, go to first base and suck it up. And if you score a run, you don't act like a 'big man' and throw a 'bow at a pitcher who is listed at 6'1", 160 lbs, which means he probably weighs about 145. What a clown move. If Roy Halladay, who started the game for the Jays, threw behind you, you would've scampered to first base and cowered like an eight year old girl, because Doc would have beaten the crap out of you if you tried a stunt like that. Then, after the game, Posada was quoted as saying "I don't want my kids to see that... Fight in the middle of the field, benches clearing-- that's a bad example." Yeah, it is. And it's your fault.

- And that's how I really feel about that.

- Really? The 1962 Mets are generally considered (on merit) the worst team in baseball history. They finished with a record of 40-120. No kidding, you may say. But the Really? in this note is that those Mets were actually worse, as they had a stretch in May in which they won nine of 12. Without that, the Mets were 31-117, a .209 winning percentage.

- Finally, if you haven't seen it yet, a foul ball off the bat of Jayson Werth on Tuesday night produced this clip, a great slice of Americana.

Catching Site

2009-09-16T13:14:00.000-07:00

I like quirky baseball sites, especially if they can teach me things I don't know, or get me to think about things in a way I haven't before. I also enjoy the perspective of some former players (the articulate ones), because they can give you an insight that Bill James or Jayson Stark can't, no matter how brilliant they are, since they've never been on the field with the live ammo flying.

One such site I stumbled across today was http://www.brentmayne.com. The site's content is produced by 15-year major league catcher Brent Mayne. It's heavy on catching, but the blog is good, and I think it can teach you something you don't know.

The Legacy of Eight Men Out

2009-09-15T15:12:00.000-07:00

Eight Men Out by Eliot Asinof has long been accepted as the definitive word on the Black Sox Scandal involving eight members of the Chicago White Sox and the 1919 World Series. The book was first published in 1963, and has since been read by countless people interested in baseball and the scandal, and was turned into a movie by the same name in 1988.

However, a recent article in Chicago Lawyer Magazine (big favorite of mine) casts doubt upon the complete authority that has been given to Asinof's account.

The article is written following the release of the notes that Asniof, who passed away in 2008, had kept while conducting interviews and research for the book. They assert, directly, that the Asinof made up certain events and characters, and indirectly, that Asinof didn't have the strength of evidence that he should have in order to write a definitive account.

While the authors do raise decent questions about the strength of the proof Asinof held, let's not lose site of what this is... lawyering at its best.

Whether Asinof followed strict standards of journalism in incorportating what he did into a book, the authors completely obscure the fact that, well, the White Sox players did dump the Series on purpose.

And they completely ignore the fact that, well, Shoeless Joe did take $5000, which in and of itself is grounds for a lifetime ban.

Again, this is written by lawyers. If you can't attack the facts, attack the one presenting the facts.

Seemingly absent from this article is any mention of what those implicated in the fix had to say about the book upon its release. Eddie Cicotte, Happy Felsch, Chick Gandil and Swede Risberg were all still alive when the book came out. No reaction from them? No denials?

In another grand tradition of lawyering, the authors completely ignore the facts that don't suit their position. What about Cicotte's confession of crookedness to a Chicago grand jury? What about Jackson's performance in games the White Sox lost? What about Cicotte hitting Morrie Rath, the Reds leadoff hitter, a universally accepted sign that the fix was on?

The summation of this article is best said by one of the comments at the bottom of the page. A 'Blake' says "Was the 1919 Series thrown? There's plenty of evidence it was. Discrediting this book, written in the 1960s, doesn't change that."

I like Shoeless Joe Jackson. I really do, and he is a sympathetic figure. But he's guilty of baseball's ultimate sin, and not he himself, nor any 21st century Chicago lawyers can rewrite the script of history to change that.

What I've Seen Lately

2009-09-14T07:12:00.000-07:00

- Raise your hand if you thought Pedro Martinez could be this good for the Phillies. If your hand is in the air right now, you are a liar. Martinez threw 130 pitches, the most he's thrown in a game in over eight years, in the Phillies 1-0 win over the Mets at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday night. Pedro is now 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in seven starts with the Phils. With J.A. Happ on the shelf with an oblique strain, Martinez is legitimately working his way into the discussion on inclusion in the Phillies playoff rotation.

- Having said that, the back end of the Phillies' bullpen in a disaster right now. Brad Lidge has officially been removed from the role, Ryan Madson has an ERA near eight as a closer, and Brett Myers just returned from hip surgery. But to even get to them, J.C. Romero and Clay Condrey are still out, and Scott Eyre has a 'loose body' in his pitching elbow. Who's down in that pen that you would trust right now? I'm being serious here... the most trustworthy guy down there right now might be Tyler Walker.

- Ichiro is amazing. He plays in Seattle and doesn't speak English real well so we don't hear about him as much as we should, but he's amazing. Nine straight 200-hit seasons. If he wants to, he'll probably reach 3000 hits in the Major Leagues, despite not coming to the States until 2001 at age 27.

- Boston (and my friend Greg) want to know where this Brad Penny was until about two weeks ago. Sure, he's in a more pitcher friendly league, but it's not THAT pitcher friendly.

- Think Scott Kazmir getting traded has anything to do with the Rays losing 11 in a row (and counting)? I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

- C.C. Sabathia had some rocky patches for the Yankees this year, but he's got 17 wins now, with an outside shot at 20. Yawn. No one will care in the Bronx unless he delivers in the playoffs.

- With three weeks left, is the NL West really the best race we have? The Rockies chasing the Dodgers? Really? As of today, it's even closer than either Wild Card race. So much for parity, I guess.

- The Tigers are up five and a half games in the AL Central, are 10 games over .500... and have outscored opponents by 15 runs. Toronto is 26.5 games out of first place, 13 games under .500, and have outscored opponents by nine runs. Those that project records using runs scored vs. given up (Pythagorean W-L) must be wearing hats to keep their heads from exploding.

- The Pirates recently sealed their 17th consecutive losing season, taking sole possession of that dubious distinction from the Phillies of 1933-1948. But let's not let the Pirates grab ahold of the loser crwon quite that easily. The little known fact about that losing era of Phillies baseball is that if not for a 78-76 record in 1932, they would have gone an almost impossible 31 seasons without a winning record, spanning 1918-1948. If you ever have to wonder how a team reaches 10,000 losses, that stat is a big piece of the explanation. In those 31 years, the Phils were 1752-2941, good for a .373 winning percentage. In today's game, that would be an average record of 60-102... for 31 years. That's not just under .500 bad, that's 100 loss bad. That era also featured five sub-.200 winning percentage seasons. Wow. And you wonder why booing became tradition passed down through generations in Philadelphia.

What I Learned From Twitter Today

2009-09-09T11:48:00.001-07:00

I did it. I signed up for Twitter. But not to be a tool. I signed up to follow the baseball people that I find informative and insightful. So, periodically, maybe daily, I'll do these posts about what the baseball twittersphere is saying. Just be thankful that I'm the sap who signed up for Twitter so that you don't have to, but you still get the information I'm after.

-From Andrew Baggerly, San Jose Mercury News says that Lincecum feels better, plans to make next start: Just talked to Tim Lincecum.

-From Evan Grant, Inside Corner (Dallas Sports News) says that since Michael Young suffered strained hamstring, Marlon Byrd, who hit 3-run HR today, is 13-for-22 with 9 RBIs in 7 games for Rangers.

-ESPN Baseball tweets that Indians' Grady Sizemore has surgery on left elbow

-MLB Trade Rumors says Mike Sweeney Hopes To Play In 2010

-Sox vs Stripes says that the Yankees' magic number for clinching the division stands at 15 after Nick Swisher's walkoff homer.

-Stats, Inc tells us that Javier Vasquez now has a 200-strikeout season for three teams, and that the Cubs eight consecutive hits to start the game last night is the first time that has happened in the bigs since the Yankees on 9/25/90.

-Surfing the Mets reports that Carlos Beltran went 1-4 after a 79 days absence.

-Mark Sheldon points out that Joey Votto went 0-3 last night and is now under .300 for the first time all season.

Phillies Notes

2009-09-09T10:46:00.000-07:00

- Charlie Manuel went and got Brad Lidge as he unravelled on the mound against the Nationals last night. Lidge had shown signs of turning it around lately, but a bad outing in Houston on Saturday and another implosion in DC forced Manuel's hand.

- It hurt Manuel going to the mound to take Lidge out, as you could easily tell by his post-game remarks and expression. But, as Manuel said, winning is "bigger than my heart, or anything else."

- After getting swept in a four-game set in Houston, Manuel really did have to do whatever he had to in order to get a win last night.

- I'd expect the Phillies to now use a closer by committe system using Lidge, Ryan Madson and Brett Myers.

- Lost in everything about the Brad Lidge situation is that Pedro Martinez pitched pretty well again. He's been better than I thought he would be, and I thought he could help the Phils.

- The Phillies hit five solo home runs last night, now making it 13 of their last 14 home runs with no one on base.

- Jayson Werth has one RBI on non-home runs since August 1st. ONE. Hit a sacrifice fly once in awhile, geez.

- The Phils have to get their pitching healthy. Madson had an oblique strain, J.A. Happ has a forearm issue that caused him to miss a start, J.C. Romero just had a cortisone injection, which he said he didn't want to do, Scott Eyre got shut down for a few days with a tender elbow, Clay Condrey is still out... Wow, Pedro Martinez and 79 year old Jamie Moyer might be the healthiest pitchers they have now.

- Tyler Walker has done a nice job this season, and could even make the playoff roster. He's gone from "Isn't putting Tyler Walker in the game the universal signal for surrender?" to "Wow, Tyler Walker just struck out Hanley Ramirez to get out of a bases loaded jam." You really never can have too much pitching.

- Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz need to be better at situational baseball. If a pitcher has walked the previous hitter on four pitches, you don't need to swing at the first pitch he throws to you.

- The bench is a black hole right now. Matt Stairs hasn't had a hit since mid-July, Greg Dobbs is hurt, Eric Bruntlett and Miguel Cairo stink, John Mayberry isn't ready to hit major league pitching, and Ben Francisco is hitting .217 since arriving in Philadelphia (but to be fair, he does have a few big hits). Some options on that bench, Charlie Manuel. Unless you want to use 'Big Knock' Bako.

- Apparently I'm annoyed by the Phightin' Phils right now.

Are the Mets THAT Bad?

2009-09-07T07:00:00.000-07:00

Peter Gammons says no, they are not, and outlines what needs to happen to make the Mets competent again. Of course, the Mets would actually have to do all of these things in order to get back on track, and I'm not sure they're committed to making the changes they have to in order to right themselves.

Why Are the Mets So Bad?

2009-09-05T08:47:00.000-07:00

If you've ever read my blog, it's not difficult to figure out a few things. One is that I love the Phillies, another is that I hate the Mets. But I really am going to attempt to be even-handed in this post. (After I include this link to a pretty good summation of the Mets season).

Make no mistake, the 2009 Mets are a train wreck.

Jayson Stark weighs in on the Mets current situation as the lead in this week's edition of his phenomenal column for espn.com, Rumblings and Grumblings.

I agree with many of the points made. As a bit of an outsider, I'm not in the Mets situation. But, I've seen more of their games this year than almost any non-Met fan (thank you, MLB Extra Innings), so I feel a certain level of knowledge regarding their situation too.

There are a ton of issues, most of them outlined by Stark. Injuries. Paying too much to players who don't produce, like Oliver Perez. And on and on. But it's more than that.

This is completely unquantifiable and unprovable, but I think you can sum up the biggest difference between the Mets and the Phillies this way: how many guys on the Mets would you want on your side in a scrap? Now, how many guys on the Phillies would you want on your side in a scrap? I don't mean, for example, that you would want Jim Thome on your side because he's huge. I mean, for example, you'd want David Eckstein on your side because he's an irritant, a pesky, driving, nose-to-the-grindstone-gives-you-sharp-boogers player with an edge, even though he's about 5-5 and 120 pounds in full hockey gear.

Guys you want on your side in a scrap are guys that are gamers, that want the ball or the bat in their hands with the game on the line. Guys that leave it all on the field. Guys that would rip your heart out and show it to you in order to win. Killers, as I like to call them.

So who on the Mets fits that description? Who's a killer? Johan Santana. Anyone else? Anyone? Bueller? The only other guy of recent vintage like that I can think of playing for the Mets was Paul LoDuca, bu his skills had eroded enough that it was probably time for a change anyway.

How about on the Phillies? Well, hmm. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, J.C. Romero, Cliff Lee, Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge. Cole Hamels is goofy as heck, but when the lights are bright and he's feels like it, he's a killer too.

Think about other recent championshp teams. Who on the 2007 Red Sox would you want on your side in a scrap? Off the top of my head, Varitek, Pedroia, Beckett, Youkilis, Ortiz, Papelbon, Lowell. '06 Cardinals? Pujols, Edmonds, Wainwright, Eckstein, Spiezio. How about the great Yankee teams from the late '90s-early 00's? Jeter, O'Neill, Brosius, Tino Martinez, Rivera, Clemens, Jeff Nelson.

You get the picture. By the way, I don't think it's coincidental at all that the Yankees haven't won it all since they started replacing 'killers' like Paul O'Neill with big names like Jason Giambi or A-Rod.

I think it's also telling that on the teams that win, the 'killer' attitude comes down from the best players, and it's also seen in the role players. Part of that is an infusion of attitude that effects a whole team, but part of that is also a role player thinking 'If Chase Utley/Albert Pujols/David Ortiz/whoever takes the field with that edge, I better do the same.' The Mets have some very talented players, but sorely lack killers. David Wright is a great player, but may be too nice. Reyes and Beltran want to talk about winning and dance like they're winning, but don't seem interested enough in really putting it out there every night the way Utley & Company do.

I have a saying I use all the time, whether in professional or personal situations- "Don't talk about it, be about it."

The Mets talk about it (and dance about it). The Phillies are about it.

And until something in that equation changes, the Mets will continue to be a high-priced train wreck, while the Phillies remain the class of the NL East.

A Great Night on the Corner of Pattison and Darien

2009-09-04T06:34:00.001-07:00

Heading into Thursday night, the premier matchup in the majors was the Giants-Phillies tilt that was to feature the Ghost of Cy Young Present squaring off with the Ghost of Cy Young Past in the forms of Tim Lincecum and Pedro Martinez, respectively. Or, as one scribe put it, Cy Young against Cy Old.

On this night, a regular season game lived up to the hype, and then some.

In a game that saw the Phillies down the Giants, 2-1, Lincecum and Martinez went toe-to-toe like heavyweight fighters, an especially ironic allusion considering that they're both about 5'10" and 160 pounds.

Martinez allowed his only run of the night on the first pitch he threw, which Giant leadoff man Eugenio Velez hit out to right-center.

From that point forward, Martinez looked more like he did in 1999 than 2009. He dominated the Giants with his familiar flamboyance and flair. He threw in and out, up and down, and from different arm angles. He visibly mimicked Aaron Rowand. He changed speeds, mixed in his change up and kept the Giant hitters off balance all night, striking out nine in the process. He allowed five hits and threw only 87 pitches, with 62 of them strikes.

Martinez not only threw well and economically, but his pitches had incredible life and movement on them. Several Giants waved at air in attempts to hit fastballs that registered only 90-91 on the stadium radar gun, but exhibited a late life and pop that gave Pedro his air of invincibility throughout the 1990's and '00s.

Lincecum, who took the loss, was probably even better. While striking out 11 and allowing only four hits, The Freak baffled the NL's best lineup, blowing hitters away with fastballs, freezing others with knee-buckling curves, and fooling more with a devastating change up.

The shaggy-haired 25-year old made only two mistakes on the evening. The first, a sloppy hanging curve ball to Jayson Werth, landed in the Delaware River (ok, it just felt that way) to tie the game at 1-1 in the second. His next mistake was hitting Chase Utley with a fastball a little too up and a little too in with no one on and two outs in the sixth. Ryan Howard followed by hitting a decent pitch into the gap in right center that scored Utley from first for a 2-1 Phillies lead, which is all it would take on this night.

Lincecum learned the hard way that when you make mistakes against a prolific lineup... even only one or two mistakes... the results won't be good, especially if you pitch in front of an anemic collection such as the Giants.

Martinez earned his third win in five starts for the Phils, recapturing the magic that made him famous, if only for one night. Lincecum took the loss to fall to 13-5.

The respect between the two slight hurlers was obvious after the game.

"He reminds me a little bit of me, but he's twice as good as me at this time of my career," Martinez said of Lincecum. "It took me seven years to win a Cy Young."

Lincecum returned the favor, saying "It's ridiculous how nasty his stuff still is. When you watch him, it's obvious he knows what he's doing out there."

While Lincecum took the loss in this game, there were no losers. A great baseball game with playoff-like feelings and emotions stole the baseball stage in South Philadelphia, with two of the game's great pitching artists, one from yesterday, one from tomorrow, flashing brilliantly across the landscape at the same time for what may be their only head-to-head matchup.

Consider yourself fortunate that you got to see it.

The Field Remains the Same

2009-09-03T13:16:00.000-07:00

Word out of the New York Daily News has dimensions at Citi Field remaining the same for 2010 as for 2009. While the new Mets playpen has played large, it's not THAT big, as it's only 11th out of 16 NL parks in home runs per game.

Certainly injuries have played a part in the Mets' woeful 2009 home run total, but the park is big. However, instead of whining, it's not incumbent upon GM Omar Minaya to build a club capable of excelling in the new park.

A look at other recently built parks shows an organizational philosophy devoted to building a team that can thrive in its surroundings. The Giant and Padre parks both play large, so they developed outstanding pitching staffs. The Phillies' park plays small, so they went about building a team that hits bombs.

Citi Field would be a good spot to host a team similar to the 1980s Cardinals under Whitey Herzog. Get fast guys that hit the ball on the ground and hit line drives, and just let them run. Vince Coleman, Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith wouldn't have been nearly as effective playing in Atlanta or another park where the ball flew, because they couldn't hit it out anyway. But in St. Louis, they led the Cards to three World Series appearances in six years from 1982-87.

Learn from that, Omar.

Or don't. It won't bother me as a Phillies fan.

Newsworthy Notes

2009-09-03T06:55:00.000-07:00

- It's unbelievable to me that the Rays go from starting Scott Kazmir in Game 1 of the World Series last season to trading him to the Angels as they hit the stretch drive to make the playoffs this season. Kazmir is not an ace in the Johan Santana-Roy Halladay mold, but still. The Rays have traded Kazmir and Edwin Jackson in the last 10 months, and it seems to be at least partially payroll driven. That does not bode well for the probability of keeping many of their great young players for too much longer.

-Unlike my cousin the Doc, I really like the Dodgers getting Jim Thome for the last month of the season and the playoffs. He can't play first, but he'll be a Matt Stairs-like lefthanded power threat off the bench for the Dodgers. Also, apparently Manny Ramirez loves Thome, so if that helps Manny be more productive, the move is worth it just for that.

-Jon Garland won't help the Dodgers in the playoffs, but he might help them win another game or two down the stretch, which could be the difference between homefield or not in the NL playoffs.

-The Phillies have scored 18 runs in the last eight games. Slump. An eight games up in the standings in early September slump.

-Facing Tim Lincecum in your next game isn't good for a slump either.

-Raul Ibanez is hitting .179 with one home run and five RBI since July 27th. His average is tied for worst in the majors. He doesn't look like he can catch up to even average fastballs either. Is this because his groin still bothers him? Is this because he's 37 and hit the wall?

-Has there ever been a better flip of roles than the Phillies have pulled in switching J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park's roles? Happ is a legitimate candidate to win the NL Rookie of the Year award, and Park has been dominant at times in short relief. This comes after Happ was lost in the shuffle as the Phils long man early in the year, and Park was terrible as a starter.

-I'm getting worried about the availability of J.C. Romero for the Phillies as the playoffs draw near.

-If either Mariano Rivera or Huston Street is out for any significant period of time, you can count out the playoff prospects of the Yankees and Rockies, respectively.

-Jason Giambi already has three RBI in two plate appearances for the Rockies. That makes the move worth it for the Rocks, even if he never does anything else for them.

-Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez mixed it up a little bit in the Marlins clubhouse. Apparently Uggla didn't appreciate what he perceived as Ramirez being a little soft and not playing with a minor injury. If I were Ramirez, I'd probably respond by saying that I don't appreciate Uggla hitting .245, trying to hit a home run on every swing and fielding like a 92 year old.

-I'd like to see Curt Schilling run for the Senate in Massachussetts. Yes, Schill is often opinionated and outspoken, and sometimes annoyingly so, but what politician isn't? Love him or hate him, Schilling is an extremely hard worker and a very smart guy. He would bring some juice and star power to the Senate, would join another former Phillies ace, Jim Bunning, a Republican Senator from Kentucky. The problem for Schilling, of course, is getting elected as a Republican in a notoriously blue state like Massachussets.

-Big ups to Aaron Boone, who made his 2009 debut for the Astros last night after undergoing open-heart surgery during spring training. By all accounts a good guy, it's a great thing to see anyone back on the field after something like that.

All-Alliteration Team

2009-09-02T06:37:00.000-07:00

Inspired by memories of the last Phillies unassisted triple play before Eric Bruntlett, I came up with an 'All-Alliteration Team', comprised of players who's first and last name begin with the same letter. This team has a lot of power, will hit a lot of home runs, and (allegedly) did a lot of steroids...

C- Darren Daulton
1B- Mark McGwire
2B- Mickey Morandini (* inspiration)
3B- Melvin Mora
SS- Marty Marion
OF- Mickey Mantle
OF- Barry Bonds
OF- Joe Jackson

RH Bench Power- Sammy Sosa
Pinch Runner- King Kelly
Pinch Hitter- Greg Gross
Pinch Hitter- Minnie Minoso
Pinch Hitter- Manny Mota
Backup Catcher- Mike McFarlane
Backup Infielder- Buddy Biancalana
Backup Outfielder- Shannon Stewart

SP- Robin Roberts
SP- Bud Black
SP- Harvey Haddix
SP- Andy Ashby
SP- Mike Morgan

RP- Matt Mantei
RP- Wilbur Wood
RP- Mike MacDougal
RP- Mike Magnante
CL- Mike Marshall

MGR- Frankie Frisch
Pitching Coach- Mike Maddux
Owner- Charlie Comiskey
Broadcaster- Chip Caray

Pete Rose's Ban- 20 Years Later

2009-08-29T13:24:00.000-07:00

There may not be a more polarizing figure in all of sports than Pete Rose. There are some who might be just as polarizing (Michael Vick?), but no one is more so.

This week marks the 20th anniversary of Rose's ban from baseball by then Commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti. As part of the banishment, which Rose agreed to, Rose admitted that there was "a factual reason for the ban" and in exchange, MLB agreed to make no formal finding that Rose had bet on baseball. After taking his place on the Permanently Ineligible list, Rose had the right to appeal for reinstatement after one year.

20 years later, Rose still has not been reinstated.

Sports anniversaries mark time for writers, talking heads and every Joe, Bob, and Frank to voice an opinion about any particular topic, and this one is no different. Two baseball writers I enjoy tremendously have weighed in on the topic. Joe Posnanski writes that after 20 years, it's time to forgive Rose and allow him back into baseball. Jayson Stark writes that Rose still isn't in the Hall of Fame, and he never will be.

I take a harder stand on Pete Rose than either of these men. He's not in the Hall, he's not allowed in baseball, and he should never be allowed to do either.

It's there in every clubhouse in the major leagues. Rule 21(d):

"BETTING ON BALL GAMES. Any player, umpire, or club official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has no duty to perform shall be declared ineligible for one year. Any player, umpire, or club or league official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible."

You can't bet on baseball. Betting on football or basketball or horses or Popes isn't great, but it won't get you banned. Betting on baseball will. And Pete Rose did that. A lot.

The point isn't even one worth arguing. The Dowd Report offers painstaking detail and irrefutable proof that Rose bet on baseball, and in fact on the team he was managing, the Cincinnati Reds. (Note: I haven't read the whole Dowd Report, unlike the Mitchell Report... I have read the highlights though). Even after years of trying to refute the findings of the report, Rose admitted in 2004's My Prison Without Bars that he had in fact bet on the game that made him famous.

This fact, absent anything else, gives merit to Rose's place on the permanently ineligible list. And I am so sick and tired of hearing fans and media types alike whine about steroid-using players potentially winding up in the Hall of Fame, when Rose won't be there, and that this is such a crime. I could not disagree more. None of the players who took steroids put the integrity of the game itself in peril. The integrity of the record book? Yup. Of themselves? You bet. But the game? No. Everyone who used some sort of PED did it to try to perform better. Why did Pete Rose bet on baseball? To help his team win? Hardly.

Rose apologists point out that he never bet against his team. Hmm. Let's look at that a bit closer. Let's say this is true. The Dowd report also notoriously outlines how Rose usually did bet on his team- except when two pitchers, Mario Soto and Bill Gullickson, were scheduled to start for the Reds. So if he bet on his team every game, except when those two started, what message does that send to others betting that game? That's an implied bet against your own team if ever there's been one. Dowd also has publicly stated that he believes Rose bet against the Reds, but was unable to substantiate it enough to include in his report. (Note: that links to a story written before Rose's book confession).

So Rose is guilty of the crimes, no doubt about that. But what about 'second chances,' like we've heard so much about recently because of the other polarizing figure I've mentioned, Michael Vick.

I read an interesting article in Time about a month back about the last days of the George W. Bush Presidency, and how in that time, Vice President Dick Cheney pushed extremely hard for a pardon for his aide Scooter Libby, who was convicted of obstructing justice in the Valerie Plame CIA leak affair. The case is complicated and covers many of the shadowy areas of the political game, but basically Scooter Libby, who was Cheney's chief of staff, lied to the federal government about his role in the whole case, and was convicted of the associated crimes.

Cheney pushed hard for a pardon from Bush. Because of the relationship between the two men, Bush considered Cheney's request carefully, and dutifully researched the basis on which a pardon can be granted. From the Time article we learn "(The criteria for a pardon are): accepting responsibility for the crime, doing time and demonstrating remorse. 'Pardons tend to be for the repentant,' says a senior Administration official familiar with the 2007 pardon review, 'not for those who think the system was politicized or they were unfairly targeted.'" The other way a pardon can be granted is for a miscarriage of justice.

So there's the standard. If the President (or in this case, Commissioner) is to grant a pardon, some key expectations need to be met. Which of these has Rose met? He's been out of baseball 20 years, if that counts as time served, but that's it from what I can see.

And I'm not counting that 20 years as time served. You know why? Because for 15 of those years, Rose went around lying about his activities. He lied to you, he lied to me, he lied to all of us. He wrote a book in which he lied, he looked into the camera on countless occasions and lied, and he had no remorse for lying.

Then, in 2004, with perhaps a ray of light on the horizon, Rose decided to tell the truth. Did he have a press conference to announce his confession? Did he sit down with Bob Costas or Jeremy Schaap or Peter Gammons? No. He wrote a book, then tried to use the confession as the driving force to sell the book. Then, he released it the same weekend as the 2004 Hall of Fame inductee announcements, stealing the stage from Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley, two men who had legitimately battled their own vices and came out stronger on the other side. All the while, Rose has made no changes in his life. He hasn't quit going to the race track or gambling on other sports, he hasn't acted repentant or sorry or anything. Contrition? Remorse? Please, save it.

What about miscarriage of justice? Was Rose treated unfairly? The rules of baseball, and precedent, suggest no, he was treated exactly as he should have been.

In the Scooter Libby pardon situation, after the accused showed zero expression of remorse or contrition, Bush put the question plainly to a top deputy on the matter, saying "What's the bottom line here? Did this guy lie or not?"

The lawyer replied affirmatively.

"O.K., that's it," Bush said.

Say what you want about George W. Bush, but he is a man of principle. And seeing no reason to grant a pardon to someone who had been treated fairly, Bush let the punishment stand.

Likewise, there is no reason at all for Bud Selig to do anything for Pete Rose except to let the punishment stand.

Eric Bruntlett, The Walking Trivia Answer

2009-08-26T13:31:00.000-07:00

Thinking about Eric Bruntlett over the past few days, a funny thing occured to me. For a guy with as little talent and accomplishment as he has, Bruntlett has carved out a nice little piece of Phillies history for himself.

Since arriving in Philadelphia prior to the 2008 season, Bruntlett is hitting .199 with two home runs and 21 RBI with the Phillies while appearing in 181 games.

However, look at what he's done...

- His arrival is a bit of a piece of history, given that he was part of the deal that brought Brad Lidge to Philadelphia. Lidge promptly went a perfect 48-48 in save opportunities through the regular and postseason.

- He scored the game-winning runs in games three and five of the 2008 World Series against Tampa, only the Phils second World Series championship in their long (long) history.

- Now he is the owner of an unassisted triple play on August 24th, 2009 against the Mets, only the second game-ending unassisted triple play in major league history.

What is especially interesting about Bruntlett is that none of his accomplishments really reflect any particular ability. Some baseball anomalies (four homers in a game, a 20-strikeout game) take a particular skill set that sets you apart even from other pro baseball players, such as tremendous power or a great set of pitches. Bruntlett's pieces of history contain none of that. He was a secondary piece as part of a trade for a closer, on his two game-winning runs in the World Series he pinch-ran and stayed in the game defensively for the historically slow Pat Burrell, and now he was covering second base as runners broke from first and second and a line drive was hit right at him, leaving him only to catch, step and tag.

For whatever reason Bruntlett, not Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins or any of the other star players the Phillies have, consistently finds himself a part of unique Phillies history. And good for him.

Weekend Wrap-Up

2009-08-25T09:17:00.000-07:00

- Cliff Lee continues to amaze. Now 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA while allowing 24 hits and striking out 39 in 40 innings since coming to the Phillies. Dominant.

- Cole Hamels, not so much. You can make a pretty decent case that Hamels is the Phillies fourth best starter right now, after Lee, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ.

- Three fairly entertaining games between the Yankees and Red Sox over the weekend, which Tom Verducci wrote a nice bit about. I especially agree with his take on A.J. Burnett, who might well hold the keys to the Yankee puzzle in his right hand.

- Burnett as the Yanks game two starter in a playoff series should be a little unsettling to Yankee fans. C.C. Sabathia's career playoff ERA? 7.92. And that's with a two runs in six inning performance for the Tribe as a 20 year old eight years ago. Take that game against the Mariners out, and C.C.'s playoff ERA in all other appearances rises to 9.47.

- One point Verducci makes in his article is about the decline in numbers for the Sox players while the Yankees have all gone up. Well, Jorge Posada (up seven homers and 98 points), Mark Teixeira (seven homers and 39 points) and Johnny Damon (up eight homers and 25 points) all seem to be enjoying a little home cooking in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Posada especially. Come on dude, 98 points!

- Verducci's note about Jason Varitek's declining production is telling.

- I think in the improbably of all improbabilities, Derek Jeter is actually flying a bit under the radar this season. Whatever, .330 is .330, and the only shortstop as old as Jeter to hit .330 in a season was Honus Wagner. That's heady company.

- Billy Wagner, sorry that in Philadelphia we expected you to do your job, and weren't too happy when you didn't, which seemed to happen too often in your most important appearances here. Paging Craig Biggio...

- One of the runners who scored ahead of Biggio on that home run was one Eric Bruntlett. You may have heard, Bruntlett turned an unassisted triple play to end Sunday's game with the Mets, only the second game-ending unassisted triple play in major league history. Just wow.

- The Rockies signed Jason Giambi. He's probably done, but a good low risk move. Why not?

- The Rays roughed up Roy Halladay on Monday night, dealing him his worst outing in two years. The Rays got to Halladay for seven earned runs and 12 hits in six innings. Sporting a 2.68 ERA on July 31st, Halladay has had an ERA of 4.50 during the month of August, and in his starts he's given up 12 hits, nine, and eight three times. I'm sure getting dangled for a month but not moved has nothing to do with it, J.P. Ricciardi.

- Speaking of embattled GMs, Omar Minaya looks like he'll be back for 2010. Philadelphia and Atlanta rejoice.

- Johan Santana on the shelf for the rest of the year. Hey, K-Rod, are you the team to beat? Apparently so, because everyone is.

- You can also revisit some 'expert' predictions for the 2009 baseball season. (SI.com... espn.com) In case you're keeping track at home, that was 17 out of 21 espn.com writers and 13 out of 13 SI.com writers who selected the Mets to make the playoffs this year.

- I love when the Mets fall apart. Objective journalism and opinion on this topic? Not even close.

Thursday Through Saturday

2009-08-23T07:42:00.000-07:00

- SI.com writer Cliff Corcoran explored a vital but underrated element of a baseball team in a column ranking the top 10 setup men in baseball today. Call me a homer if you want, but Ryan Madson has to be higher than sixth on that list. Which guy ahead of him has run through lineups with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Manny Ramirez and Evan Longoria in the playoffs? Oh, that's right, none of them. I don't give a crap about WXRL, which Corcoran seems to rely upon heavily in his rankings. That's about as worthless as VORP. This looks like a case of letting stats override everything else. I don't know Madson's WXRL, and I don't care. He passes the eye test. He can blow you away with a riding 95-98 mph four-seamer, or make you look silly with an 80-82 dead fish change that disappears down and away from lefties.

- I really do like a lot of the guys on the list, though.

- On Friday's 610 WIP AM midday show, former major leaguer David Segui raised an interesting possibility about Brad Lidge's current struggles. While much has been made about Lidge's health and his mental state, Segui said that he thinks Lidge is tipping his pitches, which is especially harmful to a pitcher like Lidge with only two pitches, the fastball and slider. If Lidge is tipping pitches, a hitter can eliminate one, and just look for the other, thus making things much easier on the hitter. Part of Segui's resoning is that there are pitchers with arms and stuff far inferior to what Lidge currently has that are having success right now. While I agree that there's a possibility that Lidge is tipping pitches, I think his bigger problem is fastball location.

- Phillies starters went the entire three-game series against Arizona this week without issuing a walk.

- Diamondback reliever Daniel Schlereth bears a resemblence to his football playing father, Mark. I'm sure he's a nice kid, he's got some good stuff and a bright future in the bigs. However, he doesn't look ready for the majors right now.

- The Red Sox seemed to have put in a claim on Billy Wagner. Wagner could help them, but they'd be a lot better off if they could get their starting rotation in order.

- Of course, Jonathan Papelbon doesn't necessarily agree.

- The AL East race is OVAAAAAAA. But I think the AL Wild Card winner will come out of that division.

- The Nationals removed the 'interim' tag and named Mike Rizzo their full-time GM on Thursday. Rizzo has a long way to go in rebuilding the image and baseball operations of a team in shambles after the Jim Bowden fiasco, but signing Stephen Strasburg and making some decent trade deadline moves are positive first steps.

- Today's edition of why the Mets are the greatest... Gary Sheffield demands an extension, doesn't get one, and leaves. I wouldn't extend him either. Way to show yourself to have mellowed and matured at age 40, Sheff.

- Brad Lidge looked about as good as he has all year in a perfect inning Saturday night against the Mets. Two strikeouts on nasty, nasty sliders.

- Finally, Brett Myers did make his first rehab appearance on Thursday night for Class A Clearwater after being delayed with an eye injury that may or may not have been the result of a bar fight. Myers allowed two hits, but struck out the side. Or, as my roommate put it "I'd prefer to say he had three punchouts." Perfect.

All-Presidential Name Team

2009-08-20T23:51:00.000-07:00

As a member of the Society of American Baseball Research (SABR), I get many emails regarding different elements of baseball's history (Quick side note, I'm in SABR for the history of the game, not to make up new statistics or try to argue why Bobby Abreu is a top 10 player all-time). One email series that I am a part of is the 'Theme Teams', whereby a theoritical team will be made up with one thing in common (recent examples have been the 'All-Mullet Team' and the 'All-Played For More Than One Team With Pat Gillick as GM Team'). Combining my love of baseball with my love of American history, I present to you my All-Presidential Name Team...

Everyday Lineup
C- Gary Carter
1B- Conor Jackson
2B- Adam Kennedy
3B- Charlie Hayes
SS- Ron Washington
OF- Shoeless Joe Jackson
OF- Otis Nixon
OF- Hack Wilson
DH- Reggie Jackson

Starting Rotation
SP- Walter Johnson
SP- Whitey Ford
SP- Randy Johnson
SP- Matt Harrison
SP- Dave Bush

Bench
C- Terry Kennedy
INF- Reggie Jefferson
INF- Tony Taylor
INF- Howard Johnson
OF- Von Hayes
OF- Claudell Washington
OF- Craig Monroe
OF- Trot Nixon

Bullpen
CL- Brian Wilson
RP- Mark Grant
RP- Terry Adams
RP- Mudcat Grant
RP- Grant Jackson
RP- Reggie Cleveland

Manager- Davey Johnson

League President- Ban Johnson

Wednesday in the Bigs

2009-08-20T07:04:00.000-07:00

- Can Cliff Lee really be this good? After last night's complete game, two-hit, 11 strikeout performance, he is now 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA and two complete games in four starts with the Phillies. He's even 5-13 (.385) at the plate. The graph in the linked story shows the comparison of Cliff Lee's first four starts with Philadelphia this year and C.C. Sabathia's first four starts with the Brewers last year. Very interesting.

- Lee threw 106 pitches, 81 for strikes. Wow. Granted, it was against the same Diamonback lineup that I downplayed after Jamie Moyer's appearance on Tuesday, but there was an obvious difference in 'stuff' between Lee and Moyer.

- Arizona leftfielder Ryan Roberts, tattoos and all, may be a very nice guy, but he's been struggling in the outfield during the Phils series.

- Could Roy Halladay be pitching any better than Cliff Lee is right now? Doubtful. And Lee didn't cost the Phils any of their top prospects.

- Halladay has been less than stellar since the trade deadline, and got hit around a bit by the Red Sox last night.

- I bet you don't realize how good a season Shane Victorino is having. I don't, and I watch him everyday.

- Longtime Phillies writer Bill Conlin opines today that Victorino is the best centerfielder in Phillies history. I don't know if I agree just yet, but I know that if Bill Conlin says it, I'll at least have to consider it.

- The Mets have placed Billy Wagner on waivers in an attempt to move him. Apparently he's looked great in rehab outings, but he's 38, coming off of Tommy John surgery, and expensive. Someone will take him, I'd guess, but only if the Mets eat alot of money.

- The Angels may be the best team in the AL, but I don't trust any team that's most important offensive player is Bobby Abreu.

- The Yankees might have something to say about the claim that the Angels are the AL's best.

- Maybe Brett Myers did injure his face in a fight after all.

- The Sawx and Rangers are on the sea-saw now for the wild card lead. Can the Rangers really hang in and take it after so many late season disappearing acts? Mike Maddux is not getting nearly enough credit for the work he's done with that pitching staff.

- Don't look now, but the Rockies are now only 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

- Reid Gorecki is 'Moonlight' no more. He flew out on the first pitch in his first big league at-bat, and then got a single and an RBI in his second trip to the plate in the Braves 15-2 win over the Mets on Wednesday night in Queens.

Since Friday

2009-08-19T08:54:00.000-07:00

- I'm glad that Stephen Strasburg and the Nats were able to come to an agreement, as it's the best thing for both sides. No one ever comes out of it well when draft picks don't sign.

- Can we all agree one and for all that Scott Boras is just a pompous blowhard? Boras insisted that Strasburg was worth a $50 million bonus, only to have the latest greatest Wunderkind sign for $15.1 million. Now, $15.1 million is a lot of money, a record for a drafted player in fact, but it's also barely 30% of the ridiculous amount Boras publicly clamored for. What a clown.

-Royals draft pick Aaron Crow, who never signed after getting drafted by the Nats last year, still isn't signed. The August 18th deadline doesn't apply to him because he's exhausted his college eligibility, but dude, come on, sign your name on the line and go pitch in pro ball.

- Good to see David Wright is okay after a scary beanball on Saturday night. Even more amazing is that Hiroki Kuroda is alright following a line drive off the coconut that same night. The ball that hit Kuroda actually caromed all the way out of play. Awful.

-Interesting article by Tom Verducci about the beanball culture taking root in the modern game. The best point about all of this that I've heard was actually on TV the other night. I don't remember who said it (I think Peter Gammons?), but the point was that aluminum bats have changed the way hitters grow up. Because aluminum covers over hitting mistakes, pitchers stay away, away, away from hitters growing up, which in turn keeps hitters from learning how to react and protect themselves (hitting wise and getting hit wise) on pitches in, and pitchers don't learn how to effectively and safely (pitching-wise and harming a hitter wise) throw inside.

-The Mets lineup was already awful, and now if David Wright really is out for the year, they may not play .400 ball the rest of the way, never mind .500 ball.

-If you're a Mets fan, how many guys on that roster do you even want back next year? Wright, Reyes, Santana, Beltran, K-Rod, and... who?

-Learn to like it, Met fans, as a high payroll, underperforming team and millions of dollars of Wilpon family losses in the Bernard Madoff scandal mean the Mets are unlikely to make big changes this offseason.

- The Rangers, who need all the pitching help they can get, decided to get rid of Vicente Padilla. He's got great 'stuff', but he's evidently a space cadet, a bad teammate, and seemingly a bad guy. The Dodgers may be kicking his tires though.

- Brett Myers says he told a tall tale about how he hurt his eye because he didn't want to look like an idiot. Well, saying you got hurt playing catch with your son then changing the story hours later makes you like like, well...

- John Smoltz' absence from baseball appears to have been brief. If you've ever wondered about how difficult it is to find pitching, just look at the demand for a 42-year old with a 2009 ERA over 8.00.

- The Rangers reaquired Ivan Rodriguez yesterday, bringing him back to the site of the most productive years of his career. Pudge is 37, but it feels like he's been in the bigs forever, because he almost has. His years in Texas may or may not have been fueled by some, uh... help, if you will.

- Jamie Moyer had a nice outing for the Phils against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night, and carried a bit of an attitude with it. As long as the attitude doesn't become too big, that can only help the Phillies, as healthy competition rages for coveted spots in the playoff rotation and bullpen.

-I still say Jamie Moyer isn't on the playoff roster. Yes, he had a nice outing last night, but come on, the D-backs three hole hitter was someone named Gerardo Parra.

-Raul Ibanez looks worn out to me.

-Congrats to a fellow former Blue Hen, Reid Gorecki, on getting the call up to the Majors with the Braves earlier this week. Gorecki, 28, played two innings in the field for the Bravos on Monday without getting an appearance at the plate. Hurry up and get the kid an at-bat, Bobby Cox. You don't want the albatross of Moonlight Graham hanging over the kid any longer than it has to. In any event, all members the Blue Hen baseball tradition celebrate with you.

-Speaking of Graham, there's a new biography out about him entitled Chasing Moonlight: The True Story of Field of Dreams' Doc Graham. Written by Brett Friedlander and Robert Reising, it looks like quite an interesting read. It's on my list.

-My 'list' is quite extensive, though.

A Few Days Prior and Ahead

2009-08-14T10:10:00.000-07:00

-Where is Bud Selig? Where? Some of the things going on right now are ridiculous. From more steroid fallout with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, to a fairly prominent pitcher flaunting that he doesn't pay any attention to the banned substances list, to beanball wars, The Commish has to show that he's in control of his sport. Do I believe he is? Negatory.

-As referenced above, Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo spoke openly and honestly about his supplement usage in a recent interview with USA Today. Arroyo stops just short of saying he doesn't care if he fails a drug test, but does seem rather cavalier about what he's doing. Regardless, he does make some good points, especially the one about not enough care being given to the players' long-term health.

-Pedro Martinez was alright in his Phillies debut on Wednesday againt the Cubs. He had some good movement on his slider, reached into the lowish 90s on his fastball, and showed a good change up. He also was clearly done at the conclusion of five innings, which is inline with how he's pitched in his most recent incarnations in the majors. One thing he definitely was --- better than Jamie Moyer.

- It was pointed out to me the other day that Pedro might very well be the best pitcher the Phillies have ever had. Not in his current condition, of course, and you can argue his greatness versus that of Steve Carlton. But Pedro is on the short list.

-Can Cliff Lee really be this good? Another solid outing for the newly acquired Lee, who's now 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 24 innings with the Phillies. So far, so good.

-I never thought the day after Cliff Lee shoved it to the Cubs for his third straight great outing after arriving in Philadelphia that hardly a word would be spoken about him. Turns out, when your local football team signs a quarterback who spent time in federal prison, THAT is a pretty big story too.

-Jake Peavey made a rehab start.

-Brett Myers is about to.

-It doesn't look good for the Nats signing Stephen Strasburg.

-Jonny Gomes hit three home runs in his first three at-bats last night against the Nationals. A natural hat trick, if you will, which Nats centerfielder Nyjer Morgan knows all about as a big hockey fan.

-Finally, I have been remiss in not mentioning Josh Willingham's two grand slams in one game against the Brewers on July 27th. Willingham pulled a feat actually more rare than a perfect game, as in MLB history there have been 18 perfect games while only 13 players have ever hit two grand slams in one outing. The two most famous of these (in my mind) are Fernando Tatis hitting two grand slams in the SAME INNING in 1999 against the Dodgers and Bill Mueller hitting a grand slam from both sides of the plate against Texas in 2003. Both Mueller and Tatis are the only players in major league history to pull their respective feat. Maybe most amazingly, Tatis hit both of his slams off of the same pitcher, current Phillies reliever Chan Ho Park.

Pedro to Start; Moyer to Sulk

2009-08-12T12:28:00.000-07:00

I'm not going to lie... I'm pretty excited about the first start of Pedro Martinez' Phillies career this evening. He may not have thrown a major league pitch in 11 months, but I think he can help the Phils out. Barring injuries, he's not going to start in the playoffs, but that's not a bad card to be able to deal out of your bullpen. My guess on Pedro's line tonight? 5.1 innings, 6 hits 3 runs, a walk and five strikeouts. Whether or not that's good enough enough to win is probably dependent upon the dormant Phillies offense getting back on track.

To make room for Martinez, senior statesman Jamie Moyer was moved to the bullpen. Moyer has gained immense popularity in Philadelphia as a local boy who done good, and a model of class and professionalism. Which is why it was such a shock when he openly expressed his dismay about being demoted to the bullpen.

You've got to be kidding me. Jamie Moyer's whining now? And what's he whining about? He stinks. Yes, he's got 10 wins, but he's averaging over seven runs a game in support in those wins. He's got an ERA of 5.47 and has allowed 148 hits in 123.1 innings. His WHIP is over 1.5. Shut up. And then to claim that he was 'misled' or that he was promised a spot... are you serious? You've been around the show for 22 years. There's no such thing- in any sport- of being guaranteed a particular spot if you're not performing. You don't want to get moved? Pitch like J.A. Happ or Cliff Lee have recently. I'm really annoyed by this.

Funny enough, you don't have to look too far to find how one should handle himself in a spot like this. One needs to look only around the clubhouse and follow the example of... Brett Myers?!?!? Brett Myers who was arrested for hitting his wife on the streets of Boston? Brett Myers who once responded to a question from Philadelphia Inquirer writer Sam Carchidi by calling him a 'retard' (coarse language in the link)?

Yes, that Brett Myers. Amidst a terrible first half of the 2008 season, the (at the time) 27-year old, sixth-year player was demoted to AAA Lehigh Valley. And what did he do? Did he punch Charlie Manuel? Did he call GM Pat Gillick nasty names? No. He stood up like a man, acknowledged he wasn't getting the job done and wasn't helping the team, and took his assignment to AAA, where he worked out a few kinks, returned to Philadelphia and won two of his three playoff starts in helping the Phils win the World Series.

Myers started opening day for the Phils in 2008, yet by July was sufficiently humbled enough by his performance to take a demotion in stride.

Myers' ERA the day he was sent down (July 1st) was 5.84. Jamie Moyer's ERA today (August 12th) is 5.47. Myers went at getting better like a champ, while Moyer wants to gripe.

Perhaps Moyer could learn a thing or two from a boisterous character 20 years his junior about how to handle disappointment in a professional manner.

What's Missing From Baseball

2009-08-11T12:01:00.000-07:00

SI.com had front page piece today titled 25 Things We Miss About Baseball. On the list, I'd say I really don't miss...

- Catchers wearing cloth caps, as getting cracked in the dome on a follow through does not produce good times.

- Wimpy middle infielders. Why do I have to miss them when I still have David Eckstein?

- Bullpen carts. Harkens back to the days of relief pitchers being either a) fat or b) often mistaken for computer programmers. Could you see a tough-guy reliever like J.C. Romero or Jonathan Broxton rolling in on a cart? No way. Man up, fellas.

SI.com also ran a companion piece entitled 10 Things We Don't Miss About Baseball. Many of the items on this list are inarguable, but I do have a few quibbles...

- I wouldn't say I miss terrible uniforms, but I kind of do. I miss them enough to enjoy the few games a year where teams bust out hideous '80s uniforms. One of my favorite examples was a weekend series in the summer of 2002 between the Braves and Phillies where both teams wore uniforms (bad ones) from the early '80s. I attended the Sunday afternoon game at the Vet. The old school uniforms were part of a promotion called 'Viagra Triumphant Glory Weekend.' Make your own joke for that one.

- I do miss the spitball. Assigning blame for the death of Ray Chapman to the spitball is lazy journalism. There were a myriad of other reasons for the Chapman incident, including the time of day of the incident (dusk), Mays' delivery (submarine), and the fact that the ball was dirty (which is why the incident led to umpires becoming required to replace any ball with dirt, smudge, scuff, anything on it). Chapman never moved, presumably because he never saw the ball coming at his head. Regardless of this, the spitball in and of itself is fun. Gaylord Perry was fun. Hitters thinking the pitcher is throwing a spitball is fun. Nothing wrong with a little good, clean, needle-free cheating.

August 7th-9th

2009-08-10T06:06:00.000-07:00

-The Yankees looked awfully impressive in a four-game sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend, their first four-game sweep of the Sawx in 24 years. The Bronx Bombers are in a pretty good spot right now, up 6.5 games in the AL East.

-The Red Sox need to get some things (read: starting pitching and shortstop) in order like yesterday. Tampa is breathing down their collective neck for the wild card. Cristian Guzman may be on the way to help.

-As much as you have to give the Marlins credit for sweeping the Phillies this weekend, the Phillies looked fairly uninterested and unfocused all weekend.

-At one point in Sunday's game, a graphic was shown that the Phils were 6 for their last 106 with runners in scoring position. That's a lusty .057.

-This week the Marlins got swept by the Nationals, and then swept the Phillies. Go figure.

-As far as I can tell, no one has ever seen a centerfielder get thrown out of the game by the home plate umpire. But Ed Rapuano threw out Shane Victorino late in yesterday's Phils- Marlins game from 300 feet away. That doesn't make Rapuano look like a preening schmoe or anything.

-The Phillies are 3-8 since acquiring Cliff Lee, with the three wins being Lee's two and J.A. Happ's complete game shutout.

-Sounds like a case of the 'we-got-Lee-and-we're-winning-the-division-by-27-games-itis' to me.

-BREAK UP THE NATS! Look at that, eight straight wins for the boys from D.C. Clearly they were all collectively worried about getting moved at the trade deadline, so now that that has passed, they're playing relaxed, free and easy. Or they're just playing well right now.

-The Nats are only 12.5 games behind the Mets for fourth in the NL East. Given the Mets recent late-season history... Nah... Could they?

-Someone (presumably the White Sox) put in a claim on Alex Rios. Don't ask me why. J.P. Riccarid should be jumping for joy right now. This is a great opportunity to say "here ya go" to whoever claimed him.

-Howard Bryant steps up huge again, by no surprise. He dissects the differences between the weekend apologies from David Ortiz and Josh Hamilton. Very interesting.

-Let's be clear here: Ortiz admitted nothing, and would not have addressed one thing if he had not been outed by the New York Times. Hamilton, immediately after the incident took place several months ago, confessed his misdeeds to his wife, his family, his organization and everyone else he needed to, and addressed it head on to the media when it became public knowledge.

-So I win on my prediction that Ortiz would trot out the "tainted supplements" excuse.

The Thursday That Was

2009-08-07T07:11:00.000-07:00

-Yesterday's 3-1 win over the Rockies was pretty much exactly how the Phillies drew it up... Seven strong innings from Cliff Lee, Ryan Madson holds the line in the eighth and Brad Lidge slammed the door in the ninth. Well played.

-Good move by the Phils in keeping J.A. Happ in the rotation.

-However, I hate the idea of a six man rotation.

-Today's Mets-are-the-greatest-thing-ever moment is from the bottom of the third inning of last night's game against San Diego. With the bases loaded and one out and the Padres ahead 4-0, Everth Cabrera hit a tailor made double play ball towards second baseman Alex Cora. As Mets play by play announcer Gary Cohen excitedly yelled "A double play ball!", Cora proceeded to bobble the ball, thus ruining chances for a double play, but recovered and threw to first, just in time to NOT get Cabrera. 5-0 San Diego, and everyone is safe. The Pads added another run in the inning and cruised to an 8-3 win.

-The Marlins led the Nationals 6-0 and 8-3 yesterday. And lost the game.

-The Marlins just got swept by the Nats, heading into a weekend series in Philadelphia. If the Phils win two of three over the Fish, the competitive phase of the NL East race is over.

-John Smoltz' days as an effective Major League pitcher sure appear to be over.

-Joba Chamberlain needs to settle down. He had a 9-3 lead in the fifth inning last night, walked the bases loaded, gave up a run, then struck out Casey Kotchman and Nick Green to get out of the jam. He then gave a hearty uppercut and yelled somethin in jubilation. Easy there, cuz. You have a five-run lead in the fifth inning, you walked seven in those five innings, gave up four earned runs and could barely last long enough to get yourself a win. You weren't exactly dealing out there.

-I love Dustin Pedroia. He's scrappy, dirty, huge heart. Love him.

-The new Yankee Stadium is a joke. Six home runs last night. Let's just say they weren't all majestic blasts.

-On Saturday, David Ortiz will apparently address his failed drug test from 2003. If he offers anything other the "tainted supplement" "something impure from my home country" excuses, I'll buy you a protein shake.

-When is a player that hasn't been outed as a steroid user going to just come out and say "You know what? I used steroids. And it worked. It made me bigger, stronger and better, and I got paid a ton because of it. The culture was accepting of everything, and I did it. And given the choice, I'd do it again."

-That guy would get a standing ovation in his next at-bat.