- The Phillies are scuffling at the plate, clearly missing Jimmy Rollins at the top of the order. Shane Victorino is hitting only .213 with a .250 OBP, and Raul Ibanez has struggled mightily, his Saturday night homer not withstanding. Add in Ryan Howard's recent struggles, and it's no wonder that the Phils have scored more than four runs only once in the last week, a stark departure from their normal output.
- Most observers have felt all along that the Phillies are the best team in the National League in 2010, and that only injuries could keep them from a third straight World Series trip. Well, today is April 25th and they've already had Jimmy Rollins, Juan Castro, Jayson Werth, Placido Polanco, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge miss a game or been removed from a game because of an injury.
- Lidge and Blanton both made rehab appearances at AA Reading on Friday, while Romero pitched for the Phils but was quickly removed after not looking right. The bullpen cavalry is on the way, however.
- Baseball Tonight had some alarming statistics to share this afternoon. One was that the Braves are hitting 6-74 (.087) in the leadoff hole. I think at this point I would give the kid a shot in that spot. He doesn't do you anygood hitting fifth if he's got no one to drive in.
- Another great Baseball Tonight stat was that AL third basemen are hitting .248 through Saturday, while their NL counterparts are hitting .290. Chief among the culprits here is the Angels' Brandon Wood, who's hitting a lusty .102 through Saturday. Wood has been a great prospect for what seems like five years, but I don't care how great his glove is, you can't have a .102 hitter at a premium offensive position.
- Wood's NL match is Aramis Ramirez of the Cubs, he of the .134 batting average. Alfonso Soriano may be drawing all the grief, but he's hitting .300. Ramirez looks over-matched on even modest fastballs.
- Brian Matusz has two wins this season. The Orioles have two wins this season. Think about that.
- Let's all keep our pants on about Ike Davis. I'll wait until he's seen half of the league once (nevermind the whole league twice) to make a judgement.
- However, if he is good, what do the Mets do with Daniel Murhpy when he gets back?
- How long until the Pirates trade Garrett Jones for five cents on the dollar? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm betting the 2011 trade deadline.
- Every time I've seen the Angels this year, which is several times now, they've looked like crap.
- If you're wondering why the White Sox have such a bad record with their pitching staff, look at the batting averages of their everyday nine. Look at Andruw Jones, who's had a nice early resurgence, then hide any women and children before sorting through the rest of the muck and mire.
- So the Padres have MLB's first eight-game winning streak in 2010. Who didn't see that one coming? Besides everyone.
- If the Giants can score at all, they'll be tough.
- Joe Nathan Shmoe Nathan. The Twins have the best record in baseball, and Jon Rauch has six saves. Also, Justin Morneau's OBP is over .500. What a great set of players they have, and it's fun to watch them all fit together.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
News and Notes
- If Cole Hamels pitches like he did on Sunday against the Marlins, the Phillies have nothing to worry about with their young lefty. Hamels allowed two earned in eight innings plus and took the loss as the Phils offense stayed cold for a second straight day. However, he had good life to his fastball, mixed in his trademark change, and even threw some very good curveballs, freezing Hanley Ramirez for strike three with one of them.
- While the top part of the Phils rotation is rounding into form, the bottom half is getting scary in a hurry. Kyle Kendrick hasn't been able to do anything right since the season started, Jamie Moyer gave up five runs in the first inning on Saturday, and now J.A. Happ may miss some time with a forearm issue. Joe Blanton is making a rehab start at Lakewood soon, and he can't get back soon enough.
- The Mets and Cardinals really did play 20 innings on Saturday, and Tony LaRussa really did pull Matt Holliday from the game when the Cardinals had not scored a run yet. Alber Pujols saw exactly no pitches to hit after that, and the Mets finally won when they were able to push across two runs against Joe Mather. Yes, that Joe Mather. Joe Posnanski does a good job outlining LaRussa's work in his latest column.
- Tom Verducci asks if this is the end for Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano and David Ortiz. Yes, yes, and yes. The easiest call for the team is Burrell, as he doesn't have a contract after this year and doesn't have any emotional currency with Tampa, other than beating them in the World Series with Philadelphia. Ortiz looks finished, and Soriano is turning into an unproductive hitting, defensive liability who is owed a lot of money.
- Soriano and Carlos Zambrano are two long term deals the Cubs have completed of recent vintage that don't look great right now.
- Must see TV this week? Jason Heyward taking his hacks against Roy Halladay in Atlanta on Thursday night.
- Only 74 more "Raise up the Jolly Roger" announcements to a .500 season for the Pirates
- The Rays are back. It's early. But they're at least back-ish.
- The Red Sox... well, some of these all-defense, no-hit contracts better start hitting something soon
- Good for Ubaldo Jimenez, no-hitting Atlanta for the Rockies first no-no. The Mets still haven't had one, and next year is their 50th season.
- Nelson Cruz is a legit power threat. Is is possible that Texas is really more Colorado than Colorado? Which is to say, they'll always hit, but never pitch, as was feared about the Rockies for the first 10-12 years of their existence.
- Thanks for coming, Houston and Baltimore. Better luck in 2011.
- While the top part of the Phils rotation is rounding into form, the bottom half is getting scary in a hurry. Kyle Kendrick hasn't been able to do anything right since the season started, Jamie Moyer gave up five runs in the first inning on Saturday, and now J.A. Happ may miss some time with a forearm issue. Joe Blanton is making a rehab start at Lakewood soon, and he can't get back soon enough.
- The Mets and Cardinals really did play 20 innings on Saturday, and Tony LaRussa really did pull Matt Holliday from the game when the Cardinals had not scored a run yet. Alber Pujols saw exactly no pitches to hit after that, and the Mets finally won when they were able to push across two runs against Joe Mather. Yes, that Joe Mather. Joe Posnanski does a good job outlining LaRussa's work in his latest column.
- Tom Verducci asks if this is the end for Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano and David Ortiz. Yes, yes, and yes. The easiest call for the team is Burrell, as he doesn't have a contract after this year and doesn't have any emotional currency with Tampa, other than beating them in the World Series with Philadelphia. Ortiz looks finished, and Soriano is turning into an unproductive hitting, defensive liability who is owed a lot of money.
- Soriano and Carlos Zambrano are two long term deals the Cubs have completed of recent vintage that don't look great right now.
- Must see TV this week? Jason Heyward taking his hacks against Roy Halladay in Atlanta on Thursday night.
- Only 74 more "Raise up the Jolly Roger" announcements to a .500 season for the Pirates
- The Rays are back. It's early. But they're at least back-ish.
- The Red Sox... well, some of these all-defense, no-hit contracts better start hitting something soon
- Good for Ubaldo Jimenez, no-hitting Atlanta for the Rockies first no-no. The Mets still haven't had one, and next year is their 50th season.
- Nelson Cruz is a legit power threat. Is is possible that Texas is really more Colorado than Colorado? Which is to say, they'll always hit, but never pitch, as was feared about the Rockies for the first 10-12 years of their existence.
- Thanks for coming, Houston and Baltimore. Better luck in 2011.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Settling Into the Season... What Have We Learned?
Everyone has played at home at least once except the Yankees, so now's the time when you start to see how the season is shaking out. Gone are the days of .750 batting averages and an 800 RBI pace. Here's what we've learned (or confirmed) so far...
- Roy Halladay in the National League has been as advertised. Two games, 16 innings, 13 hits, 17 strikeouts, one earned run.
- I'm really trying not to sound like a homer here, but when you play the Phillies your starter better throw seven good innings, or you're going to have a lot of problems. The lineup is too tough on good starters anyway, and they are going to down right abuse middle relievers.
- Ahh, but all is not perfect in Phillie land. Cole Hamels is still scuffling a bit to find his form, and Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins left Monday's home opener with injuries. Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Joe Blanton already started the year on the DL with an assortment of maladies.
- So far so good with Ryan Madson in the closer's spot.
- Jose Contreras still has great stuff. All 17 of his pitches.
- Placido Polanco appears to be a perfect fit in the two spot for the Phils. Shane Victorino has had a rougher go moving to number seven, hitting only .161 in the early-going.
-The Phils offense will be especially tough to stop if Jimmy Rollins keeps the plate discipline he's shown early in the year. And if his MRI scheduled for today has good news.
- Troy Glaus doesn't look great with a bat or a glove in his hand.
- Mike Gonzalez blew two saves by the end of the day Friday. Sheesh.
- Curtis Granderson has hit some long home runs so far, but he still can't hit lefthanded pitching. The Yankees will miss Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui more than most people realize this year.
- Joba Chamberlain's biggest problem is that he's just not that good. We don't need to analyze his psyche as a starter or as a reliever or anything else. He's just not that good. That's it.
- Scott Rolen looks rejuvenated so far. Maybe he's finally healthy.
- Tim Lincecum is just fun to watch pitch.
- Who's that hitting .407 with five home runs in seven games? Albert Pujols. He's a decent player.
- Yawn. In other news, sun to rise in east tomorrow.
- The Dodgers losing two of three to start the season in Pittsburgh can't be a great first step.
- I read predictions, apparently from real humans, that have the Mets winning the NL East. This year. After six games, Gary Matthews is hitting .143, Alex Cora .200 (which is better than Luis Castillo), Rod Barajas .238 and Mike Jacobs .133. Oliver Perez has an ERA north of a touchdown, and Mike Pelfrey has an ERA north of a touchdown WITH the extra point. I know it's only six games, but let me know how those Mets in the playoff predictions are working out for you in September.
- The Astros stink. Their lineup has about three legitimate everyday players in it right now. I know Lance Berkman is out, but it's a brutal run outside of Michael Bourn, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. If you're a pitcher and you let Lee or Pence beat you, you're a dope.
- I'm not a fan of umpires injecting themselves in a story, and I'm not a fan of Joe West at all, but he's right about the Red Sox and the Yankees wasting too much time. Tom Verducci is also right that it's not the length, but the pace of the games that is the real problem. I'm all for calling an automatic ball or strike on a player taking too long. I'm also all for an umpire telling Jorge Posada "You won't go out to the mound again if you know what's good for you" and then calling pitches right down the middle balls if he fails to oblige. Come on, seriously, Posada went to the mound eight times in one inning in last year's playoffs? That's time wasting at best, bush league at worst.
- Roy Halladay in the National League has been as advertised. Two games, 16 innings, 13 hits, 17 strikeouts, one earned run.
- I'm really trying not to sound like a homer here, but when you play the Phillies your starter better throw seven good innings, or you're going to have a lot of problems. The lineup is too tough on good starters anyway, and they are going to down right abuse middle relievers.
- Ahh, but all is not perfect in Phillie land. Cole Hamels is still scuffling a bit to find his form, and Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins left Monday's home opener with injuries. Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Joe Blanton already started the year on the DL with an assortment of maladies.
- So far so good with Ryan Madson in the closer's spot.
- Jose Contreras still has great stuff. All 17 of his pitches.
- Placido Polanco appears to be a perfect fit in the two spot for the Phils. Shane Victorino has had a rougher go moving to number seven, hitting only .161 in the early-going.
-The Phils offense will be especially tough to stop if Jimmy Rollins keeps the plate discipline he's shown early in the year. And if his MRI scheduled for today has good news.
- Troy Glaus doesn't look great with a bat or a glove in his hand.
- Mike Gonzalez blew two saves by the end of the day Friday. Sheesh.
- Curtis Granderson has hit some long home runs so far, but he still can't hit lefthanded pitching. The Yankees will miss Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui more than most people realize this year.
- Joba Chamberlain's biggest problem is that he's just not that good. We don't need to analyze his psyche as a starter or as a reliever or anything else. He's just not that good. That's it.
- Scott Rolen looks rejuvenated so far. Maybe he's finally healthy.
- Tim Lincecum is just fun to watch pitch.
- Who's that hitting .407 with five home runs in seven games? Albert Pujols. He's a decent player.
- Yawn. In other news, sun to rise in east tomorrow.
- The Dodgers losing two of three to start the season in Pittsburgh can't be a great first step.
- I read predictions, apparently from real humans, that have the Mets winning the NL East. This year. After six games, Gary Matthews is hitting .143, Alex Cora .200 (which is better than Luis Castillo), Rod Barajas .238 and Mike Jacobs .133. Oliver Perez has an ERA north of a touchdown, and Mike Pelfrey has an ERA north of a touchdown WITH the extra point. I know it's only six games, but let me know how those Mets in the playoff predictions are working out for you in September.
- The Astros stink. Their lineup has about three legitimate everyday players in it right now. I know Lance Berkman is out, but it's a brutal run outside of Michael Bourn, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. If you're a pitcher and you let Lee or Pence beat you, you're a dope.
- I'm not a fan of umpires injecting themselves in a story, and I'm not a fan of Joe West at all, but he's right about the Red Sox and the Yankees wasting too much time. Tom Verducci is also right that it's not the length, but the pace of the games that is the real problem. I'm all for calling an automatic ball or strike on a player taking too long. I'm also all for an umpire telling Jorge Posada "You won't go out to the mound again if you know what's good for you" and then calling pitches right down the middle balls if he fails to oblige. Come on, seriously, Posada went to the mound eight times in one inning in last year's playoffs? That's time wasting at best, bush league at worst.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Opening Day 2010- Rearview Mirror Edition
Is there anything better on the sports calendar than Opening Day? To me, it's a lot like the first two days of the NCAA College Basketball tournament, where noon onward there are games going the rest of the day and night all across North America. And now, a look at the 2010 edition, with retrospective lenses of course...
- I hardly recognized Jorge Posada on Sunday night, what with him actually behind the plate between pitches.
- Is that a smile we see from Roy Halladay (picture 14)? Amazing what some run support will do for you. I think this guy is going to work just fine.
-Welcome to the big show, Jason Heyward. But let's not get carried away just yet. This slideshow contains some very good players, but also some guys who immediately stunk thereafter. But it was a neat thing to see Heyward go yard in his first AB. The closest thing to this that I've seen was when I sat in the 700 level at the Vet and watched Chase Utley hit a grand slam off of Aaron Cook for his first career hit, April 24, 2003.
- Billy Wagner looked really good in his inning for the Braves. He threw 97 with some hop and mixed in a few dirty sliders.
- Albert Pujols is on pace for 324 home runs, and Placido Polanco for 972 RBI. I love early season projecting.
- Great Opening Day for Halladay, Heyward, Tim Lincecum, Pujols, Polanco
- Carlos Zambrano? Not so much. Not so much for Josh Johnson either.
- Lost in all the good signs for the Braves- Heyward, Wagner, scoring a ton of runs- is the fact that coming off a bad year, Derek Lowe stunk again.
- David Wright can hit the ball out of the Mets' new park after all. Or, he did on Monday.
- If you hate the Yankees, and who doesn't besides Yankee fans, it was really tough watching Johnny Damon drive in the winning run for Detroit and Hideki Matsui drive in the winning run for the Angels. Tell me you don't miss those guys after Nick Johnson spends 45 days on the DL and Brett Gardner and Randy Wynn are hitting a combined .228.
- Developing Story Line- Middle relief stinks... everybody's.
- If you're keeping score at home, that's only 80 more wins for the Pirates to get off the worst schnied in history.
- I hardly recognized Jorge Posada on Sunday night, what with him actually behind the plate between pitches.
- Is that a smile we see from Roy Halladay (picture 14)? Amazing what some run support will do for you. I think this guy is going to work just fine.
-Welcome to the big show, Jason Heyward. But let's not get carried away just yet. This slideshow contains some very good players, but also some guys who immediately stunk thereafter. But it was a neat thing to see Heyward go yard in his first AB. The closest thing to this that I've seen was when I sat in the 700 level at the Vet and watched Chase Utley hit a grand slam off of Aaron Cook for his first career hit, April 24, 2003.
- Billy Wagner looked really good in his inning for the Braves. He threw 97 with some hop and mixed in a few dirty sliders.
- Albert Pujols is on pace for 324 home runs, and Placido Polanco for 972 RBI. I love early season projecting.
- Great Opening Day for Halladay, Heyward, Tim Lincecum, Pujols, Polanco
- Carlos Zambrano? Not so much. Not so much for Josh Johnson either.
- Lost in all the good signs for the Braves- Heyward, Wagner, scoring a ton of runs- is the fact that coming off a bad year, Derek Lowe stunk again.
- David Wright can hit the ball out of the Mets' new park after all. Or, he did on Monday.
- If you hate the Yankees, and who doesn't besides Yankee fans, it was really tough watching Johnny Damon drive in the winning run for Detroit and Hideki Matsui drive in the winning run for the Angels. Tell me you don't miss those guys after Nick Johnson spends 45 days on the DL and Brett Gardner and Randy Wynn are hitting a combined .228.
- Developing Story Line- Middle relief stinks... everybody's.
- If you're keeping score at home, that's only 80 more wins for the Pirates to get off the worst schnied in history.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Fearless NL East Predictions
Happy Opening Day to everyone out there in blog land. Having completed the positional tour of the NL East, I'll now offer my take on things you can expect to see as the season takes shape. Or things you can expect not to see, depending on your view of my prognosticating ability...
Offense
Highest batting average- Hanley Ramirez
Most home runs- Ryan Howard
Most RBI- Howard
Most runs scored- Jimmy Rollins
Most stolen bases- Rollins
Most strikeouts, lefthander- Howard
Most strikeouts, righthander- Dan Uggla
Comeback year- Chipper Jones
Best overall offensive player- Chase Utley (combining average, OBP, HR, RBI, steals, runs scored)
Worst overall offensive player- Willie Harris
Breakout performance- Josh Willingham
Pitching
Most wins- Roy Halladay
Most saves- Francisco Rodriguez
Most strikeouts- Johan Santana
Lowest ERA- Halladay
Highest ERA- Oliver Perez
Comeback year- Cole Hamels
Breakout performance- Tommy Hanson
Defense
Gold Glove winners- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Ryan Zimmerman
Iron Gloves- Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla
Hardest to steal on- Ivan Rodriguez
Easiest to steal on- anyone in a Mets uniform
Overall
Newcomer with the biggest impact- Roy Halladay
Loss with the biggest impact- Javier Vasquez
Most important return from injury- Brad Lidge
Rookie with the most impact- Stephen Strasburg
Final year with current team- Dan Uggla, Jayson Werth
Team
Most runs scored- Phillies
Fewest runs scored- Mets
Fewest runs allowed- Braves
Most runs allowed- Nationals
Most home runs- Phillies
Fewest home runs- Mets
Most stolen bases- Phillies
Fewest stolen bases- Nationals
Best defense- Phillies
Worst defense- Marlins
Best bullpen- They will all be adventures
Predicted order of finish
1) Phillies
2) Braves
3) Marlins
4) Mets
5) Nationals
Offense
Highest batting average- Hanley Ramirez
Most home runs- Ryan Howard
Most RBI- Howard
Most runs scored- Jimmy Rollins
Most stolen bases- Rollins
Most strikeouts, lefthander- Howard
Most strikeouts, righthander- Dan Uggla
Comeback year- Chipper Jones
Best overall offensive player- Chase Utley (combining average, OBP, HR, RBI, steals, runs scored)
Worst overall offensive player- Willie Harris
Breakout performance- Josh Willingham
Pitching
Most wins- Roy Halladay
Most saves- Francisco Rodriguez
Most strikeouts- Johan Santana
Lowest ERA- Halladay
Highest ERA- Oliver Perez
Comeback year- Cole Hamels
Breakout performance- Tommy Hanson
Defense
Gold Glove winners- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Ryan Zimmerman
Iron Gloves- Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla
Hardest to steal on- Ivan Rodriguez
Easiest to steal on- anyone in a Mets uniform
Overall
Newcomer with the biggest impact- Roy Halladay
Loss with the biggest impact- Javier Vasquez
Most important return from injury- Brad Lidge
Rookie with the most impact- Stephen Strasburg
Final year with current team- Dan Uggla, Jayson Werth
Team
Most runs scored- Phillies
Fewest runs scored- Mets
Fewest runs allowed- Braves
Most runs allowed- Nationals
Most home runs- Phillies
Fewest home runs- Mets
Most stolen bases- Phillies
Fewest stolen bases- Nationals
Best defense- Phillies
Worst defense- Marlins
Best bullpen- They will all be adventures
Predicted order of finish
1) Phillies
2) Braves
3) Marlins
4) Mets
5) Nationals
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Pitchers in the NL East
As we take to the mound to review pitching staff's in the East, let me explain a bit about what I'm previewing and why. I'll consider a staff as a whole, namely the first four starters and the closer. The reason I won't go further than that is that every team in baseball needs more than five starters over the course of the year, and pretty much everyone's fifth starter stinks. I'll also include each team's closer in the mix, because he is just as important as a starter, if not more so. For the rest of the bullpen, performance is so volatile from one year to the next in middle and short relief that it's often not even worth analyzing. And like starting pitchers, many innings will be throw in relief by guys that are not on the roster. Also like fifth starters, a lot of middle relievers stink. With out further ado...
Atlanta Braves- Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Billy Wagner (closer)
If you ask many pundits who has the best pitching staff in the NL East, the Braves will be a popular answer. I like elements of the Braves' rotation, but I can't say I'm sold on all of it. Derek Lowe will get the Opening Day nod, and as such is the de facto number one. However, his 2009 season was bad, as he allowed the most hits in the National League, posted a 4.67 ERA and a WHIP over 1.5. How he rebounds will go a long way in determining the overall effectiveness of the staff. Jurrjens is coming into his own as a very good Major League pitcher, a solid number two, but probably not an ace. Hanson is the real deal, and whether in title or not, he is the ace of the Braves. His progression, like Lowe's return, will determine a large portion of the Braves' success in '10. Hudson made only seven starts in 2009 in returning from injury, and once again remains a question. He's very good when he's healthy, but he's 34 now and hasn't pitched a full season since 2007. Like Hudson, Billy Wagner made only a few appearances in 2009 after missing a year, and he would have to be considered a question mark too. Having only a modest second pitch, Wagner has made his living on upper upper 90s fastballs, and if the movement and/or velocity isn't there, Wagner could be in trouble. While Wagner is a good gamble, the Braves have effectively added one reliable late inning piece (Wagner), but lost two in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The Braves also lost Javier Vasquez for pretty much nothing that will help them now, and the sum of these transactions leaves them weaker in 2010 than they were in 2009.
Bottom Line: A lot of questions regarding health and effectiveness. Could be best in the division, or could fall apart. Lost too much from 2009 to definitively put them in the top spot in the NL East.
Florida Marlins- Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Leo Nunez (closer)
The Marlins boast perhaps the game's preeminent young power pitcher in Josh Johnson, a 26-year old horse the Marlins wisely have locked up for the long-term. Johnson is a younger Roy Halladay type pitcher, a big, strong, hard throwing guy who looks to go deep in each game and dominate opponents. Nolasco, Sanchez and Volstad are all young power arms who are looking to rebound from injury, ineffectiveness, or both. On any given night any of those three can shut it down, or can implode. Nunez had 26 saves in '09, but also had an ERA of 4.06, and gave up 13 home runs in 68.2 innings. All of which makes Nunez a lot like the rest of the staff.
Bottom Line: The Marlins feature Josh Johnson and a bunch of guys that might be great, and might stink, given any different game.
New York Mets- Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
Let's be real and real succinct about this. Santana is one of the best pitcher's in baseball, and the rest of the starting staff stinks. Thanks for coming. K-Rod is a good closer, probably the most reliable in the division, but wasn't all that great in '09. His stuff has been declining each of the past few years, and I'm not saying he's not good, but I am saying he's not worth what his contract calls for.
Bottom Line: Santana needs some help from the other starters. Starters not named Santana and middle relief are terrifying.
Philadelphia Phillies- Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Brad Lidge (closer)
The Phillies, in the aftermath of losing the World Series to the Yankees, in essence traded one year of Cliff Lee for four years of Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay who was dominating in the best offensive division in baseball. Roy Halladay who completed nine games each of the last two years in the American League. Halladay's numbers have the chance to be astronomical in the lighter hitting National League. While Halladay is expected to be great, and Joe Blanton will keep you in every game, questions surround the rest of the staff. Will J.A. Happ be able to maintain his level of success in his second full year in the league? Probably not quite as good, but he'll be good enough for the Phils. Will Cole Hamels rebound from a horrid 2009? Yes. After admitting he did pretty much nothing to get ready for the '09 season, Hamels was invisible this off-season, which is a good thing. By all accounts his velocity and command are far ahead of any point he reached in 2009. And let's not forget, he was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series in 2008. If he regains 2008 form, the Phillies could run away and hide in the division and have quite a setup in playoff series. The biggest question, however, is Lidge. If he's 2008 Lidge, the Phils could win 105 games. If he's 2009 Lidge, he won't keep the closer's job too long. He was almost certainly pitching hurt in '09, and if he comes back healthy and effective, the Phillies might well have the best overall staff in the division.
Bottom Line: Health already an issue with Lidge, Blanton and J.C. Romero starting the season on the DL. How Lidge and Hamels bounce back are keys in lineup after the incomparable Halladay.
Washington Nationals- John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Craig Stammen, Garrett Mock, Matt Capps (closer)
Thankfully for the Nationals and their fans, the Nats are unlikely to finish 2010 with the same rotation they begin the season with. Lannan and Marquis are effective big league caliber starters, Stammen and Mock, eh. Capps can be a good closer, but might be more suited to be a setup man on a good team. The real story comes when Chien-Ming Wang comes off the DL. Ok, that will be helpful, but the real real story happens when Stephen Strasburg is recalled to the big club, probably in May or early June. The uber-ace of the future can lend instant credibility to a franchise that sorely needs it.
Bottom Line: How far down the pegs the team is when Strasburg comes up is the only thing to keep an eye on. The team can hit, but their pitching staff is not up to snuff to that of Major League contenders right now.
Pitching Wrap-Up
Best staff- Atlanta or Philadelphia, depending on how the questions shake out
Worst staff- Washington
Best starter- Roy Halladay
Best reliever- Francisco Rodriguez today. Brad Lidge when he's right.
Biggest Rebound- Cole Hamels
Biggest Anticipated Debut- Stephen Strasburg
Best Fastball- Josh Johnson
Best Change Up- Santana
Best Breaking Ball- Lidge
Underrated- Jair Jurrjens
Overrated- Anibal Sanchez
Just Plain Rated- Joe Blanton
Ascending- Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Johnson, Stephen Strasburg
Descending- Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriguez
Trainwreck- Oliver Perez
Best in Five Years- Johnson
Atlanta Braves- Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Billy Wagner (closer)
If you ask many pundits who has the best pitching staff in the NL East, the Braves will be a popular answer. I like elements of the Braves' rotation, but I can't say I'm sold on all of it. Derek Lowe will get the Opening Day nod, and as such is the de facto number one. However, his 2009 season was bad, as he allowed the most hits in the National League, posted a 4.67 ERA and a WHIP over 1.5. How he rebounds will go a long way in determining the overall effectiveness of the staff. Jurrjens is coming into his own as a very good Major League pitcher, a solid number two, but probably not an ace. Hanson is the real deal, and whether in title or not, he is the ace of the Braves. His progression, like Lowe's return, will determine a large portion of the Braves' success in '10. Hudson made only seven starts in 2009 in returning from injury, and once again remains a question. He's very good when he's healthy, but he's 34 now and hasn't pitched a full season since 2007. Like Hudson, Billy Wagner made only a few appearances in 2009 after missing a year, and he would have to be considered a question mark too. Having only a modest second pitch, Wagner has made his living on upper upper 90s fastballs, and if the movement and/or velocity isn't there, Wagner could be in trouble. While Wagner is a good gamble, the Braves have effectively added one reliable late inning piece (Wagner), but lost two in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The Braves also lost Javier Vasquez for pretty much nothing that will help them now, and the sum of these transactions leaves them weaker in 2010 than they were in 2009.
Bottom Line: A lot of questions regarding health and effectiveness. Could be best in the division, or could fall apart. Lost too much from 2009 to definitively put them in the top spot in the NL East.
Florida Marlins- Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Leo Nunez (closer)
The Marlins boast perhaps the game's preeminent young power pitcher in Josh Johnson, a 26-year old horse the Marlins wisely have locked up for the long-term. Johnson is a younger Roy Halladay type pitcher, a big, strong, hard throwing guy who looks to go deep in each game and dominate opponents. Nolasco, Sanchez and Volstad are all young power arms who are looking to rebound from injury, ineffectiveness, or both. On any given night any of those three can shut it down, or can implode. Nunez had 26 saves in '09, but also had an ERA of 4.06, and gave up 13 home runs in 68.2 innings. All of which makes Nunez a lot like the rest of the staff.
Bottom Line: The Marlins feature Josh Johnson and a bunch of guys that might be great, and might stink, given any different game.
New York Mets- Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
Let's be real and real succinct about this. Santana is one of the best pitcher's in baseball, and the rest of the starting staff stinks. Thanks for coming. K-Rod is a good closer, probably the most reliable in the division, but wasn't all that great in '09. His stuff has been declining each of the past few years, and I'm not saying he's not good, but I am saying he's not worth what his contract calls for.
Bottom Line: Santana needs some help from the other starters. Starters not named Santana and middle relief are terrifying.
Philadelphia Phillies- Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Brad Lidge (closer)
The Phillies, in the aftermath of losing the World Series to the Yankees, in essence traded one year of Cliff Lee for four years of Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay who was dominating in the best offensive division in baseball. Roy Halladay who completed nine games each of the last two years in the American League. Halladay's numbers have the chance to be astronomical in the lighter hitting National League. While Halladay is expected to be great, and Joe Blanton will keep you in every game, questions surround the rest of the staff. Will J.A. Happ be able to maintain his level of success in his second full year in the league? Probably not quite as good, but he'll be good enough for the Phils. Will Cole Hamels rebound from a horrid 2009? Yes. After admitting he did pretty much nothing to get ready for the '09 season, Hamels was invisible this off-season, which is a good thing. By all accounts his velocity and command are far ahead of any point he reached in 2009. And let's not forget, he was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series in 2008. If he regains 2008 form, the Phillies could run away and hide in the division and have quite a setup in playoff series. The biggest question, however, is Lidge. If he's 2008 Lidge, the Phils could win 105 games. If he's 2009 Lidge, he won't keep the closer's job too long. He was almost certainly pitching hurt in '09, and if he comes back healthy and effective, the Phillies might well have the best overall staff in the division.
Bottom Line: Health already an issue with Lidge, Blanton and J.C. Romero starting the season on the DL. How Lidge and Hamels bounce back are keys in lineup after the incomparable Halladay.
Washington Nationals- John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Craig Stammen, Garrett Mock, Matt Capps (closer)
Thankfully for the Nationals and their fans, the Nats are unlikely to finish 2010 with the same rotation they begin the season with. Lannan and Marquis are effective big league caliber starters, Stammen and Mock, eh. Capps can be a good closer, but might be more suited to be a setup man on a good team. The real story comes when Chien-Ming Wang comes off the DL. Ok, that will be helpful, but the real real story happens when Stephen Strasburg is recalled to the big club, probably in May or early June. The uber-ace of the future can lend instant credibility to a franchise that sorely needs it.
Bottom Line: How far down the pegs the team is when Strasburg comes up is the only thing to keep an eye on. The team can hit, but their pitching staff is not up to snuff to that of Major League contenders right now.
Pitching Wrap-Up
Best staff- Atlanta or Philadelphia, depending on how the questions shake out
Worst staff- Washington
Best starter- Roy Halladay
Best reliever- Francisco Rodriguez today. Brad Lidge when he's right.
Biggest Rebound- Cole Hamels
Biggest Anticipated Debut- Stephen Strasburg
Best Fastball- Josh Johnson
Best Change Up- Santana
Best Breaking Ball- Lidge
Underrated- Jair Jurrjens
Overrated- Anibal Sanchez
Just Plain Rated- Joe Blanton
Ascending- Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Johnson, Stephen Strasburg
Descending- Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriguez
Trainwreck- Oliver Perez
Best in Five Years- Johnson
Friday, April 2, 2010
NL East Right Fielders
Rounding out the everyday positions, we move finally to right field...
Atlanta Braves- Jason Heyward
If not for Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward would be the most talked about rookie heading into 2010. The 20-year old rightfielder is thought to be the classic five-tool prospect, with the ability to hit for average, hit for power, run, field and throw above the major league norm. 2010 is only the fourth season of professional baseball for Heyward after being selected in the first round by the Braves out of high school in Georgia in June of 2007. Hayward hit .323 with 17 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 99 games at three different minor league levels in '09, and he looks to continue his progression playing full-time for the Braves in '10. As good as he may be today, and might be tomorrow, he will still hit several bumps in the road, particularly as more teams see film on him and see him for a second or third time. That being said, Heyward is expected to be the next great outfielder in the National League, and 2010 could well prove to be his coming out party.
Offense- 3... got to show me something against Roy Halladay and Johan Santana, not just spring training fodder who will be in high A in less than a month
Defense- 4... arm strength and speed don't slump
Florida Marlins- Cody Ross
Like members even of his own team, Ross has found a home with the Marlins after spending the early part of his career as a bit of a baseball vagabond. Ross, the ever so rare right handed hitting left handed thrower, hit .270 with 24 home runs in 2009, his second playing almost every day. He fits in nicely with the scrappy young Marlins, but is a bit too much like other members of the team (Dan Uggla in particular) in his propensity to swing early, swing often, strike out, and not display much speed. Ross is probably better suited to play left field than right, and as such is a below average right fielder.
Offense- 3.5... good average and power numbers, but has no speed and strikes out way too much
Defense- 2... below average
New York Mets- Jeff Francoeur
Perhaps no one in baseball needed a change of scenery more than Jeff Francoeur by the time the 2009 season rolled around. Growing up in Georgia, gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated under a title of "The Natural", followed by serious struggles that led him to a .239 hitting 2008 and a trip back to AA. Francoeur responded by hitting 61 points higher with the Mets than he did with the Braves. Whether or not he can sustain the momentum gained playing a full-year in an often anemic Met offense in a large ballpark remains to be seen. Francoeur has always been a very good outfielder, with good range and one of the best outfield throwing arms in the majors.
Offense- 2.5... not convinced he's over his struggles just year... I'd say trending upward though
Defense- 4.5... the only thing that would keep him from leading the league in outfield assists is runners and coaches wary of testing him
Philadelphia Phillies- Jayson Werth
Werth enters 2010 off of a career-year in which he hit .268 with 36 home runs, 99 RBI and stole 20 bases while making his first All-Star game. Werth will be counted upon again to put up numbers like this as the sold right handed power threat in the Phillies' lineup. Werth can drive the ball to all fields, and runs effortlessly with his abnormally long strides. A free agent to be, Werth figures to be motivated throughout the year to put up big numbers and cash in from the Yankees or Red Sox, particularly with the Phillies having to worry about extensions for Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins within the next few years, and phenom Dominic Brown waiting in the wings.
Offense- 4... average is a little low, but worst OBP with Philadelphia was .363 in 08... gets on base, scores runs, drives runs in, and that's the point of the game
Defense- 4... gets to a lot of balls others don't because of his stride, good arm
Washington Nationals- Willie Harris
While the Nats have done a good job of building an everyday roster of very good offensive players, the weakest known quantity lives in right field in the person of Willie Harris (and potentially Wily Taveras). Harris is a journeyman, with his fifth team since 2001 while posting a .246 career average. He walks a good bit, which mitigates his low average, particularly given his speed. A little guy, his versatility has probably kept him in the majors this long and probably will keep him around another few years. However, don't be surprised if Harris is replaced in right field sooner than later.
Offense- 2... gets on base, should try to slap the ball, not hit home runs
Defense- 3... for versatility, as he's appeared at every defensive position except for 1B and catcher
Right Field Round Up
Best Right fielder- Jayson Werth
Best Offensively- Werth
Best Defensively- Jeff Francoeur
Worst Offensively- Willie Harris
Worst Defensively- Cody Ross
Best in Five Years- Jason Heyward
Atlanta Braves- Jason Heyward
If not for Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward would be the most talked about rookie heading into 2010. The 20-year old rightfielder is thought to be the classic five-tool prospect, with the ability to hit for average, hit for power, run, field and throw above the major league norm. 2010 is only the fourth season of professional baseball for Heyward after being selected in the first round by the Braves out of high school in Georgia in June of 2007. Hayward hit .323 with 17 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 99 games at three different minor league levels in '09, and he looks to continue his progression playing full-time for the Braves in '10. As good as he may be today, and might be tomorrow, he will still hit several bumps in the road, particularly as more teams see film on him and see him for a second or third time. That being said, Heyward is expected to be the next great outfielder in the National League, and 2010 could well prove to be his coming out party.
Offense- 3... got to show me something against Roy Halladay and Johan Santana, not just spring training fodder who will be in high A in less than a month
Defense- 4... arm strength and speed don't slump
Florida Marlins- Cody Ross
Like members even of his own team, Ross has found a home with the Marlins after spending the early part of his career as a bit of a baseball vagabond. Ross, the ever so rare right handed hitting left handed thrower, hit .270 with 24 home runs in 2009, his second playing almost every day. He fits in nicely with the scrappy young Marlins, but is a bit too much like other members of the team (Dan Uggla in particular) in his propensity to swing early, swing often, strike out, and not display much speed. Ross is probably better suited to play left field than right, and as such is a below average right fielder.
Offense- 3.5... good average and power numbers, but has no speed and strikes out way too much
Defense- 2... below average
New York Mets- Jeff Francoeur
Perhaps no one in baseball needed a change of scenery more than Jeff Francoeur by the time the 2009 season rolled around. Growing up in Georgia, gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated under a title of "The Natural", followed by serious struggles that led him to a .239 hitting 2008 and a trip back to AA. Francoeur responded by hitting 61 points higher with the Mets than he did with the Braves. Whether or not he can sustain the momentum gained playing a full-year in an often anemic Met offense in a large ballpark remains to be seen. Francoeur has always been a very good outfielder, with good range and one of the best outfield throwing arms in the majors.
Offense- 2.5... not convinced he's over his struggles just year... I'd say trending upward though
Defense- 4.5... the only thing that would keep him from leading the league in outfield assists is runners and coaches wary of testing him
Philadelphia Phillies- Jayson Werth
Werth enters 2010 off of a career-year in which he hit .268 with 36 home runs, 99 RBI and stole 20 bases while making his first All-Star game. Werth will be counted upon again to put up numbers like this as the sold right handed power threat in the Phillies' lineup. Werth can drive the ball to all fields, and runs effortlessly with his abnormally long strides. A free agent to be, Werth figures to be motivated throughout the year to put up big numbers and cash in from the Yankees or Red Sox, particularly with the Phillies having to worry about extensions for Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins within the next few years, and phenom Dominic Brown waiting in the wings.
Offense- 4... average is a little low, but worst OBP with Philadelphia was .363 in 08... gets on base, scores runs, drives runs in, and that's the point of the game
Defense- 4... gets to a lot of balls others don't because of his stride, good arm
Washington Nationals- Willie Harris
While the Nats have done a good job of building an everyday roster of very good offensive players, the weakest known quantity lives in right field in the person of Willie Harris (and potentially Wily Taveras). Harris is a journeyman, with his fifth team since 2001 while posting a .246 career average. He walks a good bit, which mitigates his low average, particularly given his speed. A little guy, his versatility has probably kept him in the majors this long and probably will keep him around another few years. However, don't be surprised if Harris is replaced in right field sooner than later.
Offense- 2... gets on base, should try to slap the ball, not hit home runs
Defense- 3... for versatility, as he's appeared at every defensive position except for 1B and catcher
Right Field Round Up
Best Right fielder- Jayson Werth
Best Offensively- Werth
Best Defensively- Jeff Francoeur
Worst Offensively- Willie Harris
Worst Defensively- Cody Ross
Best in Five Years- Jason Heyward
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NL East Centerfielders
In our preview of the NL East we now move to John Fogerty's favorite position, centerfield...
Atlanta Braves- Nate McLouth
McLouth came to the Braves from Pittsburgh mid-year in 2009, and put up almost identical numbers in both stops (.256/9/34 with Pittsburgh, .257/11/36 with the Braves). While the average is constant, the compiler numbers don't look so hot in Atlanta given that McLouth played 39 more games for the Braves. McLouth in a lot of ways is the centerfield version of Matt Diaz. He gets on base, has a little pop and steals some bases for you, but at the end of the day, he's Nate McLouth and is only an average to good major league regular. His nine outfield assists are a good number, but his range is nothing special. Even so, he did bag a Gold Glove in 2008.
Offense- 3... a Major League regular
Defense- 3.5... makes plays
Florida Marlins- Cameron Maybin
While Cameron Maybin was anticipated by some to contend for the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year award, fellow Fish rookie Chris Coghlan took home the honors. However, Maybin was terrible in '09, so much so that he earned himself a trip back to AAA in May, and didn't return until rosters expanded on September 1st. Maybin is only 22 years old (23 on Sunday), and is a classic case of why most players that young shouldn't be rushed to the majors. He struggled terribly before being sent down, hitting only .202 and striking out 31 times in 95 plate appearances. He posted decent numbers after his recall, but one could assume much of this production was compiled against other AAA level players, teams playing out the string, or both. Until he proves he belongs, Maybin will remain a 'toolsy' player who hasn't quite been able to put those tools to good use on a major league diamond.
Offense- 1.5... has to prove he can hit major league pitching, or he'll be back in AAA quickly
Defense- 3... can run and throw, which should lead him to be a decent outfielder
New York Mets- Carlos Beltran
Beltran will spend a considerable portion of time on the disabled list to start 2010, but he is the best centerfielder in the division when he plays. He gets on base and hits for power from both sides of the plate, as well as patrolling centerfield at a very high level. He's a bit like Bobby Abreu, with a lower batting average and more power. Like Jose Reyes, Beltran is gaining a bit of a reputation of a guy who acts like he has rings, but in actuality hasn't ever won anything. He parlayed a nice playoff performance with the Astros in 2004 into riches in Queens, but like the other stars of recent Met teams (Reyes, David Wright), seems unwilling to be THE guy to make the big play in the big situation, preferring instead to comfortably fit in. He's a very good offensive player, but not a great one. He wins Gold Gloves. And misses lots of games.
Offense- 4... high OBP and good power from both sides is no joke
Defense- 4.5... has rightfully earned multiple Gold Gloves
Philadelphia Phillies- Shane Victorino
Victorino is the rambunctious child of the Phillies, the overly-energetic kid that can't sit still, which sometimes gets him in trouble, but other times stirs action where none previously existed. He fears no one and nothing, and has managed to combine his baseball talents with his best tool, speed. Victorino, like Jimmy Rollins, steals bases with an alarming success rate, thanks in large part to Phils first base coach Davey Lopes. Victorino also uses his speed to leg out triples (NL leading 13 in 2009), track down fly balls in center, and generally put pressure on the defense. Like Rollins, a more patient approach may benefit him, but a move in the order from second to seventh may be more suited to Victorino and provide some punch to the lower third of the already dynamic Phillies' offense. Victorino runs down everything in the outfield, and possesses a rightfielder's arm, earning him a Gold Glove each of the last two seasons.
Offense- 3.5...Very similar to Rollins, and the move to seventh should benefit him
Defense- 5... arm strength gives him slight edge over Beltran
Washington Nationals- Nyjer Morgan
Nyjer Morgan, like McLouth, left Pittsburgh in mid-season in 2009, and the Nationals are the beneficiaries. Morgan hit .351 and stole 24 bases in 51 games after the move to DC, finishing the season with a .307 average overall in what really was his first full-time season in the bigs. (I thought his performance in Washington had to do with the excitement of being near Alexander Ovechkin, as Morgan, who played major juinor hockey in Alberta, is a big fan of the pucks). Now 29, Morgan fits nicely into the mix for the emerging Nationals offense. A classic singles hitter, Morgan can run, but is getting thrown out too much right now and has to improve that number. Either way, his speed won't slump, and this is something that opposing pitchers have to take into account ahead of the likes of Dunn and Willingham. Morgan is a pretty good outfielder, but not at the level of Beltran and Victorino just yet.
Offense- 3.5... run more, get caught less
Defense- 4... willing, solid, good arm
Centerfield Wrap Up
Best CF- Carlos Beltran... when he plays
Best Offensively- Beltran... when he plays
Best Defensively- Shane Victorino
Just A Guy- Nate McLouth
Most Potential to Bust Out- Nyjer Morgan
Best in Five Years- Victorino
Atlanta Braves- Nate McLouth
McLouth came to the Braves from Pittsburgh mid-year in 2009, and put up almost identical numbers in both stops (.256/9/34 with Pittsburgh, .257/11/36 with the Braves). While the average is constant, the compiler numbers don't look so hot in Atlanta given that McLouth played 39 more games for the Braves. McLouth in a lot of ways is the centerfield version of Matt Diaz. He gets on base, has a little pop and steals some bases for you, but at the end of the day, he's Nate McLouth and is only an average to good major league regular. His nine outfield assists are a good number, but his range is nothing special. Even so, he did bag a Gold Glove in 2008.
Offense- 3... a Major League regular
Defense- 3.5... makes plays
Florida Marlins- Cameron Maybin
While Cameron Maybin was anticipated by some to contend for the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year award, fellow Fish rookie Chris Coghlan took home the honors. However, Maybin was terrible in '09, so much so that he earned himself a trip back to AAA in May, and didn't return until rosters expanded on September 1st. Maybin is only 22 years old (23 on Sunday), and is a classic case of why most players that young shouldn't be rushed to the majors. He struggled terribly before being sent down, hitting only .202 and striking out 31 times in 95 plate appearances. He posted decent numbers after his recall, but one could assume much of this production was compiled against other AAA level players, teams playing out the string, or both. Until he proves he belongs, Maybin will remain a 'toolsy' player who hasn't quite been able to put those tools to good use on a major league diamond.
Offense- 1.5... has to prove he can hit major league pitching, or he'll be back in AAA quickly
Defense- 3... can run and throw, which should lead him to be a decent outfielder
New York Mets- Carlos Beltran
Beltran will spend a considerable portion of time on the disabled list to start 2010, but he is the best centerfielder in the division when he plays. He gets on base and hits for power from both sides of the plate, as well as patrolling centerfield at a very high level. He's a bit like Bobby Abreu, with a lower batting average and more power. Like Jose Reyes, Beltran is gaining a bit of a reputation of a guy who acts like he has rings, but in actuality hasn't ever won anything. He parlayed a nice playoff performance with the Astros in 2004 into riches in Queens, but like the other stars of recent Met teams (Reyes, David Wright), seems unwilling to be THE guy to make the big play in the big situation, preferring instead to comfortably fit in. He's a very good offensive player, but not a great one. He wins Gold Gloves. And misses lots of games.
Offense- 4... high OBP and good power from both sides is no joke
Defense- 4.5... has rightfully earned multiple Gold Gloves
Philadelphia Phillies- Shane Victorino
Victorino is the rambunctious child of the Phillies, the overly-energetic kid that can't sit still, which sometimes gets him in trouble, but other times stirs action where none previously existed. He fears no one and nothing, and has managed to combine his baseball talents with his best tool, speed. Victorino, like Jimmy Rollins, steals bases with an alarming success rate, thanks in large part to Phils first base coach Davey Lopes. Victorino also uses his speed to leg out triples (NL leading 13 in 2009), track down fly balls in center, and generally put pressure on the defense. Like Rollins, a more patient approach may benefit him, but a move in the order from second to seventh may be more suited to Victorino and provide some punch to the lower third of the already dynamic Phillies' offense. Victorino runs down everything in the outfield, and possesses a rightfielder's arm, earning him a Gold Glove each of the last two seasons.
Offense- 3.5...Very similar to Rollins, and the move to seventh should benefit him
Defense- 5... arm strength gives him slight edge over Beltran
Washington Nationals- Nyjer Morgan
Nyjer Morgan, like McLouth, left Pittsburgh in mid-season in 2009, and the Nationals are the beneficiaries. Morgan hit .351 and stole 24 bases in 51 games after the move to DC, finishing the season with a .307 average overall in what really was his first full-time season in the bigs. (I thought his performance in Washington had to do with the excitement of being near Alexander Ovechkin, as Morgan, who played major juinor hockey in Alberta, is a big fan of the pucks). Now 29, Morgan fits nicely into the mix for the emerging Nationals offense. A classic singles hitter, Morgan can run, but is getting thrown out too much right now and has to improve that number. Either way, his speed won't slump, and this is something that opposing pitchers have to take into account ahead of the likes of Dunn and Willingham. Morgan is a pretty good outfielder, but not at the level of Beltran and Victorino just yet.
Offense- 3.5... run more, get caught less
Defense- 4... willing, solid, good arm
Centerfield Wrap Up
Best CF- Carlos Beltran... when he plays
Best Offensively- Beltran... when he plays
Best Defensively- Shane Victorino
Just A Guy- Nate McLouth
Most Potential to Bust Out- Nyjer Morgan
Best in Five Years- Victorino
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Left Field in the NL East
Out into the outfield now, with left field...
Atlanta Braves- Matt Diaz
Diaz has found at home in Atlanta after kicking around baseball's netherworld (Kansas City and the still terrible Devil Rays) during the early stages of his career. He won't play every single day, but is good for 12-135 games a year and doesn't kill you. He's a career .310 hitter, he posts decent power numbers, and even stole 12 bases in '09, and apparently has lost a lot of weight and is in great shape coming into 2010. With all of that being said, he's still Matt Diaz, is now 32 years old, and is likely to remain what he is, which is a solid Major Leaguer, but not a star and not close to it.
Offense- 3... mildly above average
Defense- 2.5... absolutely average
Florida Marlins- Chris Coghlan
Coghlan surprised many throughout the baseball world with his performance in 2009, which saw him hit .321 and take home NL Rookie of the Year honors. I honestly don't know what to think of Coghlan. He hit against everyone he played last year, and actually got stronger as the season wore on, hitting .385 in August and .390 in September/October. He hit nine home runs and stole eight bases, neither of which stands out, but I think Coghlan will continue to hit. He posted a .390 OBP for the Fish in '09, and anything near that will work for the presumed leadoff man of the future. He's pretty average in left field, but that's every left fielder, no?
Offense- 4... high average, I'd like to see more power or speed... hits are hits though, especially for a leadoff man
Defense- 2.5... not great, doesn't hurt you
New York Mets- Jason Bay
Has there ever been a more peculiar match of a marquee free agent and a team? When Bay's four year deal with the Mets was announced in December, many baseball people were left scratching their heads. The Mets? In Citi Field? With his injury concerns? Bay is a very good player, and he put up great numbers in 2009, his free agent walk year. However, a right handed power hitter can't be thrilled with the prospect of playing in cavernous Citi Field, and a left fielder with limited range especially can't be thrilled about having to patrol that much real estate, particularly while Carlos Beltran is on the mend. Boston was concerned enough about Bay's long-term injury potential so as to have only tepid interest in retaining him, even with as productive as he was in the Red Sox. I think Bay will be fine in New York, but I'd surprised if he put up numbers befitting a $16.5 million per year player.
Offense- 3.5... he's a 4 in Boston's lineup playing at Fenway, but as a vital cog in an anemic offense in a big park, not so much
Defense- 2... below average range
Philadelphia Phillies- Raul Ibanez
Ibanez enjoyed a successful first season in Philadelphia, posting 34 home runs and 93 RBI along with a career-high .899 OPS, and earning a trip to his first All-Star game. However, his first half was much better than his second half in 2009 (as in, 70 points of average and 10 home runs better in the first half). Was the drop off due to the sports hernia that he had corrected in the offseason? Or was age starting to catch up to the 37 year old? Ibanez did hit over .300 in two of the Phillies' three playoff series, and also landed a crushing home run off of George Sherrill in Game One of the NLCS. However, his under .100 performance with only one home run in 2010's spring training has not allayed many fears about his health, age, or both. One thing Ibanez has proven is that he's much better defensively than many American League experts predicted. However, this could be only a result of watching Pat Burrell and his total lack of range in left for the previous eight seasons. Ibanez catches what he gets to and shows a good arm, which is good enough for a left fielder, particularly if Shane Victorino can help make up ground in left-center.
Offense- 3... I honestly have no idea what to expect this year... could be a 4, could be a 2
Defense- 2... good enough
Washington Nationals- Josh Willingham
Willingham turned into a solid contributor to the Nats' attack in his first season in Washington in 2009. Willingham slugged 24 home runs and posted a very good OBP of .367. The fact that he only had 61 RBI to show for his 24 home runs suggests that a) the Nats still had too many automatic outs in the lineup and/or b) Adam Dunn cleared the bases before him with a home run or an inning ending strikeout. In any case, even though his numbers weren't necessarily career highs in anything, Willingham looked better in '09, and seems to have finally found a home after being shifted all over the diamond by the Marlins. He's a solid bet to put up another good year of a .260 something average and 25-35 home runs depending on how much he plays. He, and Nats fans, hope that the RBI totals spike a bit with steady lines in his other categories. Repeating the theme for leftfielders, Willingham can catch the balls he gets to, and that's good enough. Generally guys who play other positions are asked to do so because they have an innate athletic ability, however, Willingham hasn't played any other defensive position particularly well, so I think it just means teams want his power stick in the lineup.
Offense- 3.5... gets on base and hits the ball out of the park... righthanded power is hard to come by... might be Jason Bay without the trip to Boston and the contract
Defense- 2... if half of life is showing up, Willingham (and the rest of NL East LF) are just fine
Left Field Wrap Up
Best Leftfielder- Jason Bay
Best Offensively- Bay
Best Defensively- is there REALLY a tallest midget in the circus?
Could Be Great, Might Just Be old- Raul Ibanez
Just a Guy- Matt Diaz
Best in Five Years- Chris Coghlan
Up next, we shift to center...
Atlanta Braves- Matt Diaz
Diaz has found at home in Atlanta after kicking around baseball's netherworld (Kansas City and the still terrible Devil Rays) during the early stages of his career. He won't play every single day, but is good for 12-135 games a year and doesn't kill you. He's a career .310 hitter, he posts decent power numbers, and even stole 12 bases in '09, and apparently has lost a lot of weight and is in great shape coming into 2010. With all of that being said, he's still Matt Diaz, is now 32 years old, and is likely to remain what he is, which is a solid Major Leaguer, but not a star and not close to it.
Offense- 3... mildly above average
Defense- 2.5... absolutely average
Florida Marlins- Chris Coghlan
Coghlan surprised many throughout the baseball world with his performance in 2009, which saw him hit .321 and take home NL Rookie of the Year honors. I honestly don't know what to think of Coghlan. He hit against everyone he played last year, and actually got stronger as the season wore on, hitting .385 in August and .390 in September/October. He hit nine home runs and stole eight bases, neither of which stands out, but I think Coghlan will continue to hit. He posted a .390 OBP for the Fish in '09, and anything near that will work for the presumed leadoff man of the future. He's pretty average in left field, but that's every left fielder, no?
Offense- 4... high average, I'd like to see more power or speed... hits are hits though, especially for a leadoff man
Defense- 2.5... not great, doesn't hurt you
New York Mets- Jason Bay
Has there ever been a more peculiar match of a marquee free agent and a team? When Bay's four year deal with the Mets was announced in December, many baseball people were left scratching their heads. The Mets? In Citi Field? With his injury concerns? Bay is a very good player, and he put up great numbers in 2009, his free agent walk year. However, a right handed power hitter can't be thrilled with the prospect of playing in cavernous Citi Field, and a left fielder with limited range especially can't be thrilled about having to patrol that much real estate, particularly while Carlos Beltran is on the mend. Boston was concerned enough about Bay's long-term injury potential so as to have only tepid interest in retaining him, even with as productive as he was in the Red Sox. I think Bay will be fine in New York, but I'd surprised if he put up numbers befitting a $16.5 million per year player.
Offense- 3.5... he's a 4 in Boston's lineup playing at Fenway, but as a vital cog in an anemic offense in a big park, not so much
Defense- 2... below average range
Philadelphia Phillies- Raul Ibanez
Ibanez enjoyed a successful first season in Philadelphia, posting 34 home runs and 93 RBI along with a career-high .899 OPS, and earning a trip to his first All-Star game. However, his first half was much better than his second half in 2009 (as in, 70 points of average and 10 home runs better in the first half). Was the drop off due to the sports hernia that he had corrected in the offseason? Or was age starting to catch up to the 37 year old? Ibanez did hit over .300 in two of the Phillies' three playoff series, and also landed a crushing home run off of George Sherrill in Game One of the NLCS. However, his under .100 performance with only one home run in 2010's spring training has not allayed many fears about his health, age, or both. One thing Ibanez has proven is that he's much better defensively than many American League experts predicted. However, this could be only a result of watching Pat Burrell and his total lack of range in left for the previous eight seasons. Ibanez catches what he gets to and shows a good arm, which is good enough for a left fielder, particularly if Shane Victorino can help make up ground in left-center.
Offense- 3... I honestly have no idea what to expect this year... could be a 4, could be a 2
Defense- 2... good enough
Washington Nationals- Josh Willingham
Willingham turned into a solid contributor to the Nats' attack in his first season in Washington in 2009. Willingham slugged 24 home runs and posted a very good OBP of .367. The fact that he only had 61 RBI to show for his 24 home runs suggests that a) the Nats still had too many automatic outs in the lineup and/or b) Adam Dunn cleared the bases before him with a home run or an inning ending strikeout. In any case, even though his numbers weren't necessarily career highs in anything, Willingham looked better in '09, and seems to have finally found a home after being shifted all over the diamond by the Marlins. He's a solid bet to put up another good year of a .260 something average and 25-35 home runs depending on how much he plays. He, and Nats fans, hope that the RBI totals spike a bit with steady lines in his other categories. Repeating the theme for leftfielders, Willingham can catch the balls he gets to, and that's good enough. Generally guys who play other positions are asked to do so because they have an innate athletic ability, however, Willingham hasn't played any other defensive position particularly well, so I think it just means teams want his power stick in the lineup.
Offense- 3.5... gets on base and hits the ball out of the park... righthanded power is hard to come by... might be Jason Bay without the trip to Boston and the contract
Defense- 2... if half of life is showing up, Willingham (and the rest of NL East LF) are just fine
Left Field Wrap Up
Best Leftfielder- Jason Bay
Best Offensively- Bay
Best Defensively- is there REALLY a tallest midget in the circus?
Could Be Great, Might Just Be old- Raul Ibanez
Just a Guy- Matt Diaz
Best in Five Years- Chris Coghlan
Up next, we shift to center...
NL East Shortstops
#6 on the field, often number 1 in your heart...
Atlanta Braves- Yunel Escobar
Escobar's numbers improved modestly in 2009, his second full season as Atlanta's shortstop. He will hit in the high .200s to low .300s, but shows modest power (10-15 home runs) and little speed (12-24 lifetime in stolen base attempts). He's very good defensively, and could concievably win a Gold Glove someday, maybe even this year. Watching him play, his attitude very clearly irks Bobby Cox more than occasionally, and one wonders how good he would be if he spent more time watching video of pitchers and trying to pick up their cues and moves, and less time acting like a clown and getting his hair frosted blond. At 27, it's time for Escobar to step up and become a good player, or remain content to just be another guy.
Offense- 2.5... pretty average all the way around... no secondary numbers, and his average is even mitigated a bit by his propensity to hit into double plays
Defense- 4.5... good range, good arm, makes the plays he's supposed to and can be spectacular
Florida Marlins- Hanley Ramirez
Hanley Ramirez might very well be the most talented player in the division, and if he's not the best player, he's on the short list. I'd argue that Ramirez and Chase Utley are the two best players in the division, and their offensive stat lines are remarkably similar. Ramirez won his first batting title in 2009 with a .342 average, and it would surprise no one if that were the first of many batting crowns. Still only 26, Ramirez hits for average and power, can run, and can hit anywhere in the top of the order. As good as his '09 was, I think Hanley actually had a better season in 2008, when he hit for more power, walked more, and led the NL in runs scored. He's only modest in the field, and his ability at short coupled with his size make him an ideal candidate to shift to third base in the future, a la Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez. If you were to start a franchise and could pick any one player to do so, you could do a lot worse than Ramirez.
Offense- 5... batting champs who can drive the ball and run are hard to come by, but this is one
Defense- 2... I think he'd better better at third, but that may not happen until he signs with the Yankees or Red Sox in a few years
New York Mets- Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes, for better or worse, is the face of this era of New York Mets baseball. He was one of the cornerstones that the team intended to build around in the middle of the decade, debuted at 20 in 2003, went to the playoffs in 2006, was a big part of a late-season meltdown in 2007, had an OK 2008 and not much of a 2009 with injuries. A tantalizing combination of leadoff speed and home run capability, Reyes has yet to prove that he really has a clue about what's going on during a game. Each of his last two healthy seasons he has led the league in caught stealing, and he remains difficult to walk, but not as difficult as in his first few seasons. His career .337 on base percentage is not good enough to be an effective leadoff hitter for a team that struggles to score runs. And- fairly or unfairly- he more than any other is the face and name cited by other teams as acting the fool and getting them riled up. Who's clowning around incited a brawl with the Marlins on the next-to-last day of the 2007 season and gave a Marlin team playing for nothing motivation to help complete the Mets' historic collapse? Jose Reyes. What name was scrawled on Shane Victorino's locker plate after he rounded first with his hand in the air after his playoff grand slam against CC Sabathia in the 2008 playoffs? J. Reyes. Reyes has rightfully earned the reputation of a guy who celebrates a bit too much for a 5th inning home run in June, and other teams notice. Until he starts acting like a pro and wins something, instead of just acting like he's won something, the reputation will follow him. Don't let the offense and defense numbers fool you. If there was a 'makeup' category, he'd be in Dan Uggla defense-land, and that detracts from his admittedly strong suits.
Offense- 4... can hit the ball out of the park, and steals tons of bases... also hard to walk and gets thrown out too much on the base paths
Defense- 5... very good all around
Philadelphia Phillies- Jimmy Rollins
Jimmy Rollins is the anti- Jose Reyes. In many ways, they are similar. Both are leadoff hitting shortstops, both play excellent defense, both can hit the ball out of the park and steal lots of bases. Both like to run their mouths, but the difference is that Rollins backs up what he says, and Reyes disappears in big spots. Rollins said prior to the 2007 season that Philadelphia was the team to beat, and then went out and won the NL MVP award. Rollins said the Phils would win 100 games in 2008, and between the regular season and playoffs they won 103. Rollins is the guy you saw make the diving stab to turn a double play to clinch the division title in 2008, and the guy whose double to the gap with two outs down a run against the Dodgers won Game Four of the 2009 NLCS. The numbers say Rollins and Reyes are similar, but if you watch them both play everyday, you know that they're not. Having said all of that, Rollins has to be better about pitch selection and working counts to be effective for the Phillies. His is a simple formula- when he scores, the Phillies win. Period, end of sentence. Because of this, more doubles on 2-2 counts are preferable to 1-0 pop ups. Rollins, like Reyes, steals a lot of bases, but unlike Reyes, he rarely gets caught, taking 119 out of 136 over the past three years. Rollins' range and arm are exceptional, and he had rightly earned three consecutive Gold Gloves.
Offense- 4... a 3.5 without his base stealing success rate, has to do much better than the .296 OBP he posted in 2009
Defense- 5... as good as anyone in baseball
Washington Nationals- Ian Desmond
This week's announcement that Desmond will be the Nats' everyday shortstop came as little surprise to those who follow the team. Cristian Guzman's range and abilities are a bit limited at this point, and the 24-year old Desmond is thought ready to handle playing every day in the show. In limited duty in 09, Desmond looked to belong, hitting .280 with four home runs in 21 games, while displaying tools that provide all the evidence you need for why the Nats are high on him. However, I have my doubts about his ability at the plate at the big league level. Prior to 2009, Desmond never hit above .264 for a season in the minors, and half of his 50 minor league home runs came at the High A level. He has also struck out two and a half times as often as he's walked, which are not good indicators that he'll make consistent contact or show good pitch selection in the majors. He's still young, and his 2009 season may have been the result of everything clicking into place for him. Time will tell for Desmond, and the Nationals intend to find out over the 162 game long haul.
Offense- 2... You've got to perform better for more than 21 games to prove you can hit big league pitching
Defense- 2... Posted some ghastly fielding percentages in the minors
Shortstop Wrap Up
-Best Shortstop- Jimmy Rollins
-Best Third Baseman Moonlighting at SS- Hanley Ramirez
-Best Offensively- Ramirez
-Best Defensively- Rollins
-Worst Offensively- Ian Desmond
-Worst Defensively- Desmond
-Biggest Question- Can Desmond be a servicable to good shortstop in the bigs?
-Best in Five Years- Ramirez, but probably at third base
Up next, left field...
Atlanta Braves- Yunel Escobar
Escobar's numbers improved modestly in 2009, his second full season as Atlanta's shortstop. He will hit in the high .200s to low .300s, but shows modest power (10-15 home runs) and little speed (12-24 lifetime in stolen base attempts). He's very good defensively, and could concievably win a Gold Glove someday, maybe even this year. Watching him play, his attitude very clearly irks Bobby Cox more than occasionally, and one wonders how good he would be if he spent more time watching video of pitchers and trying to pick up their cues and moves, and less time acting like a clown and getting his hair frosted blond. At 27, it's time for Escobar to step up and become a good player, or remain content to just be another guy.
Offense- 2.5... pretty average all the way around... no secondary numbers, and his average is even mitigated a bit by his propensity to hit into double plays
Defense- 4.5... good range, good arm, makes the plays he's supposed to and can be spectacular
Florida Marlins- Hanley Ramirez
Hanley Ramirez might very well be the most talented player in the division, and if he's not the best player, he's on the short list. I'd argue that Ramirez and Chase Utley are the two best players in the division, and their offensive stat lines are remarkably similar. Ramirez won his first batting title in 2009 with a .342 average, and it would surprise no one if that were the first of many batting crowns. Still only 26, Ramirez hits for average and power, can run, and can hit anywhere in the top of the order. As good as his '09 was, I think Hanley actually had a better season in 2008, when he hit for more power, walked more, and led the NL in runs scored. He's only modest in the field, and his ability at short coupled with his size make him an ideal candidate to shift to third base in the future, a la Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez. If you were to start a franchise and could pick any one player to do so, you could do a lot worse than Ramirez.
Offense- 5... batting champs who can drive the ball and run are hard to come by, but this is one
Defense- 2... I think he'd better better at third, but that may not happen until he signs with the Yankees or Red Sox in a few years
New York Mets- Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes, for better or worse, is the face of this era of New York Mets baseball. He was one of the cornerstones that the team intended to build around in the middle of the decade, debuted at 20 in 2003, went to the playoffs in 2006, was a big part of a late-season meltdown in 2007, had an OK 2008 and not much of a 2009 with injuries. A tantalizing combination of leadoff speed and home run capability, Reyes has yet to prove that he really has a clue about what's going on during a game. Each of his last two healthy seasons he has led the league in caught stealing, and he remains difficult to walk, but not as difficult as in his first few seasons. His career .337 on base percentage is not good enough to be an effective leadoff hitter for a team that struggles to score runs. And- fairly or unfairly- he more than any other is the face and name cited by other teams as acting the fool and getting them riled up. Who's clowning around incited a brawl with the Marlins on the next-to-last day of the 2007 season and gave a Marlin team playing for nothing motivation to help complete the Mets' historic collapse? Jose Reyes. What name was scrawled on Shane Victorino's locker plate after he rounded first with his hand in the air after his playoff grand slam against CC Sabathia in the 2008 playoffs? J. Reyes. Reyes has rightfully earned the reputation of a guy who celebrates a bit too much for a 5th inning home run in June, and other teams notice. Until he starts acting like a pro and wins something, instead of just acting like he's won something, the reputation will follow him. Don't let the offense and defense numbers fool you. If there was a 'makeup' category, he'd be in Dan Uggla defense-land, and that detracts from his admittedly strong suits.
Offense- 4... can hit the ball out of the park, and steals tons of bases... also hard to walk and gets thrown out too much on the base paths
Defense- 5... very good all around
Philadelphia Phillies- Jimmy Rollins
Jimmy Rollins is the anti- Jose Reyes. In many ways, they are similar. Both are leadoff hitting shortstops, both play excellent defense, both can hit the ball out of the park and steal lots of bases. Both like to run their mouths, but the difference is that Rollins backs up what he says, and Reyes disappears in big spots. Rollins said prior to the 2007 season that Philadelphia was the team to beat, and then went out and won the NL MVP award. Rollins said the Phils would win 100 games in 2008, and between the regular season and playoffs they won 103. Rollins is the guy you saw make the diving stab to turn a double play to clinch the division title in 2008, and the guy whose double to the gap with two outs down a run against the Dodgers won Game Four of the 2009 NLCS. The numbers say Rollins and Reyes are similar, but if you watch them both play everyday, you know that they're not. Having said all of that, Rollins has to be better about pitch selection and working counts to be effective for the Phillies. His is a simple formula- when he scores, the Phillies win. Period, end of sentence. Because of this, more doubles on 2-2 counts are preferable to 1-0 pop ups. Rollins, like Reyes, steals a lot of bases, but unlike Reyes, he rarely gets caught, taking 119 out of 136 over the past three years. Rollins' range and arm are exceptional, and he had rightly earned three consecutive Gold Gloves.
Offense- 4... a 3.5 without his base stealing success rate, has to do much better than the .296 OBP he posted in 2009
Defense- 5... as good as anyone in baseball
Washington Nationals- Ian Desmond
This week's announcement that Desmond will be the Nats' everyday shortstop came as little surprise to those who follow the team. Cristian Guzman's range and abilities are a bit limited at this point, and the 24-year old Desmond is thought ready to handle playing every day in the show. In limited duty in 09, Desmond looked to belong, hitting .280 with four home runs in 21 games, while displaying tools that provide all the evidence you need for why the Nats are high on him. However, I have my doubts about his ability at the plate at the big league level. Prior to 2009, Desmond never hit above .264 for a season in the minors, and half of his 50 minor league home runs came at the High A level. He has also struck out two and a half times as often as he's walked, which are not good indicators that he'll make consistent contact or show good pitch selection in the majors. He's still young, and his 2009 season may have been the result of everything clicking into place for him. Time will tell for Desmond, and the Nationals intend to find out over the 162 game long haul.
Offense- 2... You've got to perform better for more than 21 games to prove you can hit big league pitching
Defense- 2... Posted some ghastly fielding percentages in the minors
Shortstop Wrap Up
-Best Shortstop- Jimmy Rollins
-Best Third Baseman Moonlighting at SS- Hanley Ramirez
-Best Offensively- Ramirez
-Best Defensively- Rollins
-Worst Offensively- Ian Desmond
-Worst Defensively- Desmond
-Biggest Question- Can Desmond be a servicable to good shortstop in the bigs?
-Best in Five Years- Ramirez, but probably at third base
Up next, left field...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Third Base
Now on to third base...
Atlanta Braves- Chipper Jones
Much speculation has floated about in the offseason about the possibility that 2010 will be Chipper's final season. That is a scenario that makes sense, with Chipper turning 38 in June and the only manager he's ever played for, Bobby Cox, retiring after this season. Injuries have also started to slow down Jones, as 2009 was the first season he's played more than 140 games since 2003. His power numbers remained relatively constant, but his batting average fell exactly 100 points to .264 after winning the NL batting crown in 2008. Jones has no speed, and has never been a great fielder, which has only been made worse with age. Jones can still be a productive hitter, but he's unlikely to win another batting crown or even come close. If he does play beyond 2010, a move across the diamond to first base (a la Troy Glaus) may be the move that extends his career. Chipper is 74 home runs from 500, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick around to try to reach that plateau. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him walk away this year either.
Offense- 4... career .307 hitter still dangerous from both sides of the plate, just not as dangerous as he was
Defense- 2... below average
Florida Marlins- Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms
Let's cut to the chase. Neither one can play. Bonifacio is really fast, which is nice except that he never gets on base and has no power, as evidenced by the fact that he had the lowest OPS (.611) in all of baseball in 2009. He makes up for this by being below average in the field. Helms stinks. His one potential tool is power, but he only hit three home runs in 214 at-bats in 2009. He catches and makes plays on balls he gets to, but that's not a whole heck of a lot. However, his cousin is Ed Helms, who plays Andy Bernard on The Office.
Offense- 1.5... no power, and about a .300 on-base percentage between them
Defense- 0.5... uggghhh
New York Mets- David Wright
David Wright is a very nice player, one of the better players in all of baseball. He's a good hitter, and possesses an outstanding glove. He appeared to be the biggest victim of the Mets' move to Citi Field, as he dropped to 10 home runs in 618 trips to the plate, which isn't good for a guy counted upon to provide a big portion of the power for a homer-hungry club. Wright is a very good player, but not a leader, and his talent and stature on his club probably demands more of him. However, he plays every day, hits .300 and plays Gold Glove level defense. Always a threat for the All-Star team, Wright is the best all-around player on the Mets.
Offense- 4... could be a five if his power rebounds... runs better than you think, with 27 steals last year
Defense- 4... probably a bit overrated, but still very good
Philadelphia Phillies- Placido Polanco
Polanco returns to Philadelphia for his second tour of duty after spending parts of four seasons with the Phils after arriving via the Scott Rolen trade. Polanco may be the best in the bigs at situational hitting and handling the bat, and he even won a Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009. However, the Phillies have a viable second baseman, so Polanco will make the switch to third. A perfect fit in the Phillies lineup, Polanco will hit second and allow the more free-swinging, faster, more powerful Shane Victorino slide to the seven hole and provide some punch in the bottom part of the order. However, the man he replaces, Pedro Feliz, was one of the better, if not the best, defensive third basemen in baseball, with great range and a laser arm. Polanco's range isn't as good, and I have concerns about whether or not he has a third base arm for a full season. He won't drive you nuts at the plate like Feliz, but he won't pick it and throw it or hit for the power that Feliz did either.
Offense- 3.5... perfect fit as the disciplined good cop in the two hole for the Phillies
Defense- 3... catches the ball, but questions about arm persist
Washington Nationals- Ryan Zimmerman
Turning into Scott Rolen about 10 years later, but without the sulking and attitude. Zimmerman had a monster 2009, hitting .292 with 33 home runs and 106 RBI while winning the Gold Glove. Beat that. Still only 25, Zimmerman will continue getting better and will serve as the lynchpin around which the Nats attempt to build. And he's a great piece to build around. His numbers are on an upswing as he continues to figure out who he is as a hitter and a fielder, and there's no reason to believe that he won't be an All-Star at the hot corner for years to come.
Offense- 4... doesn't run and hasn't hit over .300 in a full year, but he's very good with the bat
Defense- 4... makes the routine plays and some of the spectacular ones
Third Base Wrap Up
-Best Third Baseman- David Wright
-Best Offensively- At this stage Wright, Jones and Zimmerman are all really close
-Best Defensively- Ryan Zimmerman
-Worst Offensively- Emilio Bonifacio
-Worst Defensively- Emilio Bonifacio
-Biggest Question- Placido Polanco's arm
-Best in Five Years- Zimmerman
We'll next move from the fifth position to number six, the shortstops...
Atlanta Braves- Chipper Jones
Much speculation has floated about in the offseason about the possibility that 2010 will be Chipper's final season. That is a scenario that makes sense, with Chipper turning 38 in June and the only manager he's ever played for, Bobby Cox, retiring after this season. Injuries have also started to slow down Jones, as 2009 was the first season he's played more than 140 games since 2003. His power numbers remained relatively constant, but his batting average fell exactly 100 points to .264 after winning the NL batting crown in 2008. Jones has no speed, and has never been a great fielder, which has only been made worse with age. Jones can still be a productive hitter, but he's unlikely to win another batting crown or even come close. If he does play beyond 2010, a move across the diamond to first base (a la Troy Glaus) may be the move that extends his career. Chipper is 74 home runs from 500, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick around to try to reach that plateau. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him walk away this year either.
Offense- 4... career .307 hitter still dangerous from both sides of the plate, just not as dangerous as he was
Defense- 2... below average
Florida Marlins- Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms
Let's cut to the chase. Neither one can play. Bonifacio is really fast, which is nice except that he never gets on base and has no power, as evidenced by the fact that he had the lowest OPS (.611) in all of baseball in 2009. He makes up for this by being below average in the field. Helms stinks. His one potential tool is power, but he only hit three home runs in 214 at-bats in 2009. He catches and makes plays on balls he gets to, but that's not a whole heck of a lot. However, his cousin is Ed Helms, who plays Andy Bernard on The Office.
Offense- 1.5... no power, and about a .300 on-base percentage between them
Defense- 0.5... uggghhh
New York Mets- David Wright
David Wright is a very nice player, one of the better players in all of baseball. He's a good hitter, and possesses an outstanding glove. He appeared to be the biggest victim of the Mets' move to Citi Field, as he dropped to 10 home runs in 618 trips to the plate, which isn't good for a guy counted upon to provide a big portion of the power for a homer-hungry club. Wright is a very good player, but not a leader, and his talent and stature on his club probably demands more of him. However, he plays every day, hits .300 and plays Gold Glove level defense. Always a threat for the All-Star team, Wright is the best all-around player on the Mets.
Offense- 4... could be a five if his power rebounds... runs better than you think, with 27 steals last year
Defense- 4... probably a bit overrated, but still very good
Philadelphia Phillies- Placido Polanco
Polanco returns to Philadelphia for his second tour of duty after spending parts of four seasons with the Phils after arriving via the Scott Rolen trade. Polanco may be the best in the bigs at situational hitting and handling the bat, and he even won a Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009. However, the Phillies have a viable second baseman, so Polanco will make the switch to third. A perfect fit in the Phillies lineup, Polanco will hit second and allow the more free-swinging, faster, more powerful Shane Victorino slide to the seven hole and provide some punch in the bottom part of the order. However, the man he replaces, Pedro Feliz, was one of the better, if not the best, defensive third basemen in baseball, with great range and a laser arm. Polanco's range isn't as good, and I have concerns about whether or not he has a third base arm for a full season. He won't drive you nuts at the plate like Feliz, but he won't pick it and throw it or hit for the power that Feliz did either.
Offense- 3.5... perfect fit as the disciplined good cop in the two hole for the Phillies
Defense- 3... catches the ball, but questions about arm persist
Washington Nationals- Ryan Zimmerman
Turning into Scott Rolen about 10 years later, but without the sulking and attitude. Zimmerman had a monster 2009, hitting .292 with 33 home runs and 106 RBI while winning the Gold Glove. Beat that. Still only 25, Zimmerman will continue getting better and will serve as the lynchpin around which the Nats attempt to build. And he's a great piece to build around. His numbers are on an upswing as he continues to figure out who he is as a hitter and a fielder, and there's no reason to believe that he won't be an All-Star at the hot corner for years to come.
Offense- 4... doesn't run and hasn't hit over .300 in a full year, but he's very good with the bat
Defense- 4... makes the routine plays and some of the spectacular ones
Third Base Wrap Up
-Best Third Baseman- David Wright
-Best Offensively- At this stage Wright, Jones and Zimmerman are all really close
-Best Defensively- Ryan Zimmerman
-Worst Offensively- Emilio Bonifacio
-Worst Defensively- Emilio Bonifacio
-Biggest Question- Placido Polanco's arm
-Best in Five Years- Zimmerman
We'll next move from the fifth position to number six, the shortstops...
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Second Base in the NL East
Now your NL East second sackers...
Atlanta Braves- Martin Prado
A versatile player for the Braves, Martin Prado appeared at 1B, 2B, 3B and in the outfield for the Braves in 2009. However, with Kelly Johnson having moved on to the Diamondbacks, the Braves' second base job appears to be Prado's in 2010. The 26-year old Venezuelan hit .307 in over 500 at-bats in 2009, however, despite nearly doubling his at-bat total from 2008, his average went down, his RBI total only went up 16, while his home runs went up more than five fold. This suggests a player with warning track power trying a little too hard to hit the ball out of the park. He also didn't have a triple and stole only one base, which suggests he's slow, has no instincts for baserunning, or both. Because of playing all over the diamond his defense was a little questionable, but he's going to have to be better at 2B to remain in the lineup, particularly with Atlanta's pitching staff needing stellar defense in the many close games they play.
Offense- 2.5... hits over .300, but no power and zero speed
Defense- 2.0... has to be better
Florida Marlins- Dan Uggla
First, I'll believe that the Marlins keep Uggla all year when I see it. Now... Dan Uggla is the 21st century, infielding version of Dave Kingman. His numbers look ok, but when you watch him hit, he's very clearly trying to hit every ball into the upper deck. He swings often, swings from the heels, and hits big or misses big. He hit 31 home runs and 90 RBI in 09, but had only 27 doubles. That's right, in the Marlins park, hitting righthanded, with that scoreboard out in leftfield, Uggla had more home runs than doubles. That is absurd. To watch Uggla play is to understand the character Pedro Cerrano from Major League. Like Cerrano, Uggla's bats are afraid of the curveball, and any decent non-hanger is likely to solicit a mighty swing and a miss. His walk totals have increased steadily over his career, but this is likely the result of pitchers being afraid he will hit one out (and therefore nibbling), rather than an improvement in his batting eye. In the field, Uggla is atrocious. I could say more, but that wouldn't be nice. I understand that he hits 30 home runs and drives in 90, but his defense is so bad it doesn't come close to being a good tradeoff over a second baseman who is just average offensively and defensively. Maybe stat heads will scream foul on that, but if you watch Uggla play, you wouldn't argue that point.
Offense- 3... strong power numbers are mitigated by utter lack of interest in anything but long ball
Defense- 0... worthless, at least if the position was unoccupied baseball people wouldn't pull their hair out watching him try to field... badly needs to move to 1B or DH
New York Mets- Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo continues to hurt the Mets beyond just his contributions on the field. It feels like eight offseasons in a row that the Mets have wanted to sign Orlando Hudson, but have been unable to find a taker for a clearly declined Castillo and his ridiculous contract (courtesy of Omar Minaya, of course). The enduring image of Castillo's stay in Flushing is likely to be his dropped pop-up on a ball hit by A-Rod that would have ended the game in a Met win, but instead ended with two Yankees charging home to win for the team in the Bronx. I freely admit watching this play unfold and breaking into uproarious, uncontrollable laughter for the better part of 10 minutes. Aside from this, however, and to Castillo's credit, he played much better in the second half of 2009 than he had for the Mets before that, hitting .321 in the second half after posting a .285 mark in the first half of the season. I don't think that means he's got everything turned around, but I do think it means he still has the potential to be a productive player. Still only 34, it feels like Castillo has been around forever (only 1996 actually), and his .302 average actually would have led the Phillies in 2008 and 2009. However, part of what made Castillo great was his outstanding speed, and having lost a bit of it, he's no longer an All-Star caliber player, just a capable player than can play everyday when he's healthy. However, he's paid for to well to be only that, and his one home run and 20 stolen bases in 09 indicate he doesn't have anything exceptional to offer.
Offense- 3... .300 hitters are .300 hitters... even with diminished speed and no power
Defense- 3... good enough, not as quick as he was
Philadelphia Phillies- Chase Utley
Chase Utley, with the possible exception of Hanley Ramirez, is the best all-around player in the NL East. Already an impressive hitter for average and power and improving defender, Utley added to the repetoire by going 23-23 in stolen base attempts in 2009. What I will say separates Utley from Ramirez and gives him the edge is that Ramirez wants to win, but Utley is a stone-cold killer. His steely glare and expressionless face belie a burning passion to win everything he does at all costs. His short swing hits baseballs unimaginable distances, he calmly trots around the bases chewing gum (and other substances), touches home plate, bumps fists with teammates and strolls back to the Phils dugout with a non-chalant arrogance that shows that he knows and you know that he's the baddest mother going these days. Jimmy Rollins may provide the Phillies' mouthpiece, but it is Utley who provides the will and attitude for a team that doesn't talk about beating you (Mets), doesn't think about how cool it is to beat you (Marlins), it just beats you. Utley has made himself a much better second baseman (not a Gold Glover, as UZR nerds, I mean devotees, will tell you), but he is much better than when he came up. Without a hip injury, or an offseason rehab from a hip injury to worry about as he has the last two seasons, pencil in Utley for .300/30/100. And maybe even a smile or two on the field.
Offense- 5... .300 hitter, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 25 steals all within reach, without the kryptonite of strikeouts and lefthanders that often befall Ryan Howard... if he posts those four marks, he's an MVP candidate
Defense- 4... really good, but I watch every game, therefore I know he's not a GG second sacker... catches and fields better than he throws, but throws better when going to his left than his right
Washington Nationals- Adam Kennedy
If David Eckstein is the Little Engine that Could, Adam Kenneday is the Little Engine that Can Too. A smaller guy with no discernable outstanding tool, Kennedy is a pro's pro that does everything well, but nothing outstanding. He's not a black hole in the lineup, nor in the field. He doesn't make mental mistakes, doesn't get himself out, shows a little pop (7-10 HR) and speed (15-25 SB) and fits in well in a clubhouse. That describes every player the Angels have had over the last decade, and a good face for the Angel way under Mike Scioscia might well be Kennedy's. After spending 2009 in Oakland, Kennedy comes to Washington to stabilize second base and add another degree of professionalism to the Nationals. Kennedy won't make the all-star team, won't be in MVP discussion, and still won't be a household name at the end of the season, but he will make second base one less thing the Nats have to worry about in 2010.
Offense- 3... fully average and competent in pretty much each area
Defense- 3... see above... not a great arm, but it's second base
Second Base Wrap Up
Best First Baseman- Chase Utley
Best Offensive First Baseman- Utley
Best Defensive First Baseman- Utley
Worst Offensive First Baseman- Martin Prado
Worst Defensive First Baseman- Uggla... could be the worst fielder at his position in baseball
Best in Five Years- Probably still Utley
Up Next, Third Base...
Atlanta Braves- Martin Prado
A versatile player for the Braves, Martin Prado appeared at 1B, 2B, 3B and in the outfield for the Braves in 2009. However, with Kelly Johnson having moved on to the Diamondbacks, the Braves' second base job appears to be Prado's in 2010. The 26-year old Venezuelan hit .307 in over 500 at-bats in 2009, however, despite nearly doubling his at-bat total from 2008, his average went down, his RBI total only went up 16, while his home runs went up more than five fold. This suggests a player with warning track power trying a little too hard to hit the ball out of the park. He also didn't have a triple and stole only one base, which suggests he's slow, has no instincts for baserunning, or both. Because of playing all over the diamond his defense was a little questionable, but he's going to have to be better at 2B to remain in the lineup, particularly with Atlanta's pitching staff needing stellar defense in the many close games they play.
Offense- 2.5... hits over .300, but no power and zero speed
Defense- 2.0... has to be better
Florida Marlins- Dan Uggla
First, I'll believe that the Marlins keep Uggla all year when I see it. Now... Dan Uggla is the 21st century, infielding version of Dave Kingman. His numbers look ok, but when you watch him hit, he's very clearly trying to hit every ball into the upper deck. He swings often, swings from the heels, and hits big or misses big. He hit 31 home runs and 90 RBI in 09, but had only 27 doubles. That's right, in the Marlins park, hitting righthanded, with that scoreboard out in leftfield, Uggla had more home runs than doubles. That is absurd. To watch Uggla play is to understand the character Pedro Cerrano from Major League. Like Cerrano, Uggla's bats are afraid of the curveball, and any decent non-hanger is likely to solicit a mighty swing and a miss. His walk totals have increased steadily over his career, but this is likely the result of pitchers being afraid he will hit one out (and therefore nibbling), rather than an improvement in his batting eye. In the field, Uggla is atrocious. I could say more, but that wouldn't be nice. I understand that he hits 30 home runs and drives in 90, but his defense is so bad it doesn't come close to being a good tradeoff over a second baseman who is just average offensively and defensively. Maybe stat heads will scream foul on that, but if you watch Uggla play, you wouldn't argue that point.
Offense- 3... strong power numbers are mitigated by utter lack of interest in anything but long ball
Defense- 0... worthless, at least if the position was unoccupied baseball people wouldn't pull their hair out watching him try to field... badly needs to move to 1B or DH
New York Mets- Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo continues to hurt the Mets beyond just his contributions on the field. It feels like eight offseasons in a row that the Mets have wanted to sign Orlando Hudson, but have been unable to find a taker for a clearly declined Castillo and his ridiculous contract (courtesy of Omar Minaya, of course). The enduring image of Castillo's stay in Flushing is likely to be his dropped pop-up on a ball hit by A-Rod that would have ended the game in a Met win, but instead ended with two Yankees charging home to win for the team in the Bronx. I freely admit watching this play unfold and breaking into uproarious, uncontrollable laughter for the better part of 10 minutes. Aside from this, however, and to Castillo's credit, he played much better in the second half of 2009 than he had for the Mets before that, hitting .321 in the second half after posting a .285 mark in the first half of the season. I don't think that means he's got everything turned around, but I do think it means he still has the potential to be a productive player. Still only 34, it feels like Castillo has been around forever (only 1996 actually), and his .302 average actually would have led the Phillies in 2008 and 2009. However, part of what made Castillo great was his outstanding speed, and having lost a bit of it, he's no longer an All-Star caliber player, just a capable player than can play everyday when he's healthy. However, he's paid for to well to be only that, and his one home run and 20 stolen bases in 09 indicate he doesn't have anything exceptional to offer.
Offense- 3... .300 hitters are .300 hitters... even with diminished speed and no power
Defense- 3... good enough, not as quick as he was
Philadelphia Phillies- Chase Utley
Chase Utley, with the possible exception of Hanley Ramirez, is the best all-around player in the NL East. Already an impressive hitter for average and power and improving defender, Utley added to the repetoire by going 23-23 in stolen base attempts in 2009. What I will say separates Utley from Ramirez and gives him the edge is that Ramirez wants to win, but Utley is a stone-cold killer. His steely glare and expressionless face belie a burning passion to win everything he does at all costs. His short swing hits baseballs unimaginable distances, he calmly trots around the bases chewing gum (and other substances), touches home plate, bumps fists with teammates and strolls back to the Phils dugout with a non-chalant arrogance that shows that he knows and you know that he's the baddest mother going these days. Jimmy Rollins may provide the Phillies' mouthpiece, but it is Utley who provides the will and attitude for a team that doesn't talk about beating you (Mets), doesn't think about how cool it is to beat you (Marlins), it just beats you. Utley has made himself a much better second baseman (not a Gold Glover, as UZR nerds, I mean devotees, will tell you), but he is much better than when he came up. Without a hip injury, or an offseason rehab from a hip injury to worry about as he has the last two seasons, pencil in Utley for .300/30/100. And maybe even a smile or two on the field.
Offense- 5... .300 hitter, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 25 steals all within reach, without the kryptonite of strikeouts and lefthanders that often befall Ryan Howard... if he posts those four marks, he's an MVP candidate
Defense- 4... really good, but I watch every game, therefore I know he's not a GG second sacker... catches and fields better than he throws, but throws better when going to his left than his right
Washington Nationals- Adam Kennedy
If David Eckstein is the Little Engine that Could, Adam Kenneday is the Little Engine that Can Too. A smaller guy with no discernable outstanding tool, Kennedy is a pro's pro that does everything well, but nothing outstanding. He's not a black hole in the lineup, nor in the field. He doesn't make mental mistakes, doesn't get himself out, shows a little pop (7-10 HR) and speed (15-25 SB) and fits in well in a clubhouse. That describes every player the Angels have had over the last decade, and a good face for the Angel way under Mike Scioscia might well be Kennedy's. After spending 2009 in Oakland, Kennedy comes to Washington to stabilize second base and add another degree of professionalism to the Nationals. Kennedy won't make the all-star team, won't be in MVP discussion, and still won't be a household name at the end of the season, but he will make second base one less thing the Nats have to worry about in 2010.
Offense- 3... fully average and competent in pretty much each area
Defense- 3... see above... not a great arm, but it's second base
Second Base Wrap Up
Best First Baseman- Chase Utley
Best Offensive First Baseman- Utley
Best Defensive First Baseman- Utley
Worst Offensive First Baseman- Martin Prado
Worst Defensive First Baseman- Uggla... could be the worst fielder at his position in baseball
Best in Five Years- Probably still Utley
Up Next, Third Base...
Monday, March 8, 2010
NL East First Basemen
Continuing on the tour of the NL East, today we visit First Base...
Atlanta Braves- Troy Glaus
I've always been a fan of Troy Glaus, and in bringing him to Atlanta for the 2010 season, I think the Bravos took the type of low-risk chance that could wind up paying huge dividends for them. A third baseman his whole career, injuries limited Glaus to only 14 games in 2009, but he has played well over 130 games more than he hasn't in his big league career. While the days of 40 home runs and 100 RBI are probably in the past for a myriad of reasons, Glaus' arrival gives the Braves a legitimate offensive threat at first. If he hits .265 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI, I think the Braves would take that. And they should, after drawing dead with the likes of Casey Kotchman in recent years, save for that stretch when they rented Mark Teixeira.
Offense- 3.5- gives power and production from a power spot... not a premier slugger anymore, but still productive
Defense- 3.0- range shouldn't be an issue given his history at 3B, and 1B doesn't have to throw as much as other positions
Florida Marlins- Jorge Cantu
Cantu seems to have finally found a home at first base for the Marlins, after spending the early part of his career playing all over the infield with the Rays and Reds. Still only 28, Cantu posted his second 100-RBI season, reaching the century mark in 149 games in 2009. While his home run number dropped almost in half (29-16) from 2008, his 40 plus double seasons will continue to drive in runs for the young Marlins, particularly with the angularity of the outfield at the Marlins' home stadium, whatever it's called now. Cantu looks like he should be able to run a little, but can't, but he's more than adequate defensively and still finds himself at third every once in awhile for the Marlins. Cantu is a good bet to produce along his average season, which is about .285 with 20 home runs and 90 RBI.
Offense- 3.5- good stick, drives in runs, can be impatient, which is characteristic of most of the Fish
Defense- 2.5- average utility type player... doesn't kill your team, but isn't spectacular either
New York Mets- Daniel Murphy
Daniel Murphy, still only 25, has lived a few lifetimes in his Mets' career already. He came up as a 23-year old in 2008 to join a cast intent on gagging down the stretch for the second straight season, and he actually hit well, finishing with a .313 average in 131 at bats. Murphy had a decent second season in 2009, leading the Mets with 12 home runs in splitting time between the outfield and first base. But here's the rub. Daniel Murphy can't catch. Murphy made 10 errors in 101 games AS A FIRST BASEMAN, giving him a lower fielding percentage than even (gulp) Ryan Howard. He was even worse in the outfield, throwing up a fielding percentage of only .950. Those fielding percentages just can't happen, and they're only mitigated if you're a major run producer (like Howard) or you have a shutdown pitching staff that doesn't need the defensive help (and come on, what pitcher doesn't throw better in front of a good defense). I can't prove it, obviously, but I think Murphy carries the struggle with the glove to the plate. Hitting is difficult against Major League pitching, but there's a comfort there that you have through every level of baseball: find the release point, pick up the rotation of the ball, locate where it will cross the plate, swing or don't. A natural third baseman, the Mets are so starved for a decent bat (which I think Murphy can be), that they've ruined him defensively by throwing him all over the diamond in unfamiliar spots. And under the bright lights of the big leagues and the harsh glare of New York, that can't be a great combination. The good news/bad news routine is this: good news- Murphy led the Mets in home runs in 2009. Bad news: he hit 12, also known as a good two weeks for half of the Phillies' lineup.
Offense- 2.5... one of the Mets better hitters in '09, but that's not saying a whole lot
Defense- 0.5... terrible... you have to catch the ball at some position to be an effective player for an NL team
Philadelphia Phillies- Ryan Howard
Ryan Howard is the best run-producing lefthanded stick in baseball today. Period, end of story, thanks for coming. The only competiton to the crown in all of baseball plays 1B in St. Louis and 3B in the Bronx, but from the leftside, Howard is it. He is the anchor and RBI machine of the NL's best offensive team. He certainly does have his kryptonite, as pointed out recently by Tom Verducci, but he's reached 45 home runs and 135 RBI each of the last four seasons, missing the 140 threshold only in 2007 when a DL stint left him with a mere 136. No one hits them harder, farther or to the opposite field with the ferocity that Howard does, and when the guys before him have names like Rollins, Polanco and Utley and the guys after him names like Werth, Ibanez and Victorino, you can be sure he will get plenty more RBI chances in 2010. The two biggest knocks on Howard have been his weight and his defense, two items he has attacked head on the last two offseasons, losing a ton of weight and working hard with Phillies infield coach Sam Perlozzo to improve his defense. And this AFTER winning a World Series and getting a big raise. That tells you all you need to know about the player referred to by legendary Phils broadcaster Harry Kalas simply as "The Big Man."
Offense- 5... his numbers don't lie, and as scary as letting Utley or Werth beat you might be, teams would still rather take their chances than giving in to Howard
Defense- 2... still below average, but working hard to make it better... a great player refusing to be 'just good enough' says a lot about his makeup
Washington Nationals- Adam Dunn
Dunn is a lot like Jim Thome, in that he's the type of guy that you can reliably predict each of his plate appearances as one of three outcomes- a home run, a walk, or a strikeout. In fact, for his career, Dunn has come to the plate 5417 times, and homered (316), walked (913) or struck out (1433) in 2662 of those plate appearances, or 49% of the time. While it is surely aggravating to watch someone with those ratios and wonder what could be if he would just put the ball in play more, this attitude also minimizes some of Dunn's true value. While only a .249 career hitter, he reaches base at a .398 clip, and his OPS is a stellar .903. Dunn is what he is, and might be the most predictable first sacker in the division... he hits 40 or so home runs, drives in 100 or so runs, walks a ton and strikes out more. An outfielder for most of his career, Dunn is probably anchored at first for as long as he's in the NL, as a move to the AL would almost certainly render him a DH.
Offense- 4... low average combatted by high secondary numbers and extraordinary run production, mostly for bad teams
Defense- 0.5... he wears a glove... that's about it
First Base Wrap Up
Best First Baseman- Ryan Howard
Best Offensive First Baseman- Howard
Best Defensive First Baseman- Troy Glaus, if I have to pick one
Worst Offensive First Baseman- Daniel Murphy, leave the trouble with the glove out of the batter's box
Worst Defensive First Baseman- Murphy... hey, Adam Dunn can catch
Potential to be the best value- Glaus... if he stays healthy
Best in Five Years- Howard... his production is virtually unprecedented, and he's still young
Up next, Second Base...
Atlanta Braves- Troy Glaus
I've always been a fan of Troy Glaus, and in bringing him to Atlanta for the 2010 season, I think the Bravos took the type of low-risk chance that could wind up paying huge dividends for them. A third baseman his whole career, injuries limited Glaus to only 14 games in 2009, but he has played well over 130 games more than he hasn't in his big league career. While the days of 40 home runs and 100 RBI are probably in the past for a myriad of reasons, Glaus' arrival gives the Braves a legitimate offensive threat at first. If he hits .265 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI, I think the Braves would take that. And they should, after drawing dead with the likes of Casey Kotchman in recent years, save for that stretch when they rented Mark Teixeira.
Offense- 3.5- gives power and production from a power spot... not a premier slugger anymore, but still productive
Defense- 3.0- range shouldn't be an issue given his history at 3B, and 1B doesn't have to throw as much as other positions
Florida Marlins- Jorge Cantu
Cantu seems to have finally found a home at first base for the Marlins, after spending the early part of his career playing all over the infield with the Rays and Reds. Still only 28, Cantu posted his second 100-RBI season, reaching the century mark in 149 games in 2009. While his home run number dropped almost in half (29-16) from 2008, his 40 plus double seasons will continue to drive in runs for the young Marlins, particularly with the angularity of the outfield at the Marlins' home stadium, whatever it's called now. Cantu looks like he should be able to run a little, but can't, but he's more than adequate defensively and still finds himself at third every once in awhile for the Marlins. Cantu is a good bet to produce along his average season, which is about .285 with 20 home runs and 90 RBI.
Offense- 3.5- good stick, drives in runs, can be impatient, which is characteristic of most of the Fish
Defense- 2.5- average utility type player... doesn't kill your team, but isn't spectacular either
New York Mets- Daniel Murphy
Daniel Murphy, still only 25, has lived a few lifetimes in his Mets' career already. He came up as a 23-year old in 2008 to join a cast intent on gagging down the stretch for the second straight season, and he actually hit well, finishing with a .313 average in 131 at bats. Murphy had a decent second season in 2009, leading the Mets with 12 home runs in splitting time between the outfield and first base. But here's the rub. Daniel Murphy can't catch. Murphy made 10 errors in 101 games AS A FIRST BASEMAN, giving him a lower fielding percentage than even (gulp) Ryan Howard. He was even worse in the outfield, throwing up a fielding percentage of only .950. Those fielding percentages just can't happen, and they're only mitigated if you're a major run producer (like Howard) or you have a shutdown pitching staff that doesn't need the defensive help (and come on, what pitcher doesn't throw better in front of a good defense). I can't prove it, obviously, but I think Murphy carries the struggle with the glove to the plate. Hitting is difficult against Major League pitching, but there's a comfort there that you have through every level of baseball: find the release point, pick up the rotation of the ball, locate where it will cross the plate, swing or don't. A natural third baseman, the Mets are so starved for a decent bat (which I think Murphy can be), that they've ruined him defensively by throwing him all over the diamond in unfamiliar spots. And under the bright lights of the big leagues and the harsh glare of New York, that can't be a great combination. The good news/bad news routine is this: good news- Murphy led the Mets in home runs in 2009. Bad news: he hit 12, also known as a good two weeks for half of the Phillies' lineup.
Offense- 2.5... one of the Mets better hitters in '09, but that's not saying a whole lot
Defense- 0.5... terrible... you have to catch the ball at some position to be an effective player for an NL team
Philadelphia Phillies- Ryan Howard
Ryan Howard is the best run-producing lefthanded stick in baseball today. Period, end of story, thanks for coming. The only competiton to the crown in all of baseball plays 1B in St. Louis and 3B in the Bronx, but from the leftside, Howard is it. He is the anchor and RBI machine of the NL's best offensive team. He certainly does have his kryptonite, as pointed out recently by Tom Verducci, but he's reached 45 home runs and 135 RBI each of the last four seasons, missing the 140 threshold only in 2007 when a DL stint left him with a mere 136. No one hits them harder, farther or to the opposite field with the ferocity that Howard does, and when the guys before him have names like Rollins, Polanco and Utley and the guys after him names like Werth, Ibanez and Victorino, you can be sure he will get plenty more RBI chances in 2010. The two biggest knocks on Howard have been his weight and his defense, two items he has attacked head on the last two offseasons, losing a ton of weight and working hard with Phillies infield coach Sam Perlozzo to improve his defense. And this AFTER winning a World Series and getting a big raise. That tells you all you need to know about the player referred to by legendary Phils broadcaster Harry Kalas simply as "The Big Man."
Offense- 5... his numbers don't lie, and as scary as letting Utley or Werth beat you might be, teams would still rather take their chances than giving in to Howard
Defense- 2... still below average, but working hard to make it better... a great player refusing to be 'just good enough' says a lot about his makeup
Washington Nationals- Adam Dunn
Dunn is a lot like Jim Thome, in that he's the type of guy that you can reliably predict each of his plate appearances as one of three outcomes- a home run, a walk, or a strikeout. In fact, for his career, Dunn has come to the plate 5417 times, and homered (316), walked (913) or struck out (1433) in 2662 of those plate appearances, or 49% of the time. While it is surely aggravating to watch someone with those ratios and wonder what could be if he would just put the ball in play more, this attitude also minimizes some of Dunn's true value. While only a .249 career hitter, he reaches base at a .398 clip, and his OPS is a stellar .903. Dunn is what he is, and might be the most predictable first sacker in the division... he hits 40 or so home runs, drives in 100 or so runs, walks a ton and strikes out more. An outfielder for most of his career, Dunn is probably anchored at first for as long as he's in the NL, as a move to the AL would almost certainly render him a DH.
Offense- 4... low average combatted by high secondary numbers and extraordinary run production, mostly for bad teams
Defense- 0.5... he wears a glove... that's about it
First Base Wrap Up
Best First Baseman- Ryan Howard
Best Offensive First Baseman- Howard
Best Defensive First Baseman- Troy Glaus, if I have to pick one
Worst Offensive First Baseman- Daniel Murphy, leave the trouble with the glove out of the batter's box
Worst Defensive First Baseman- Murphy... hey, Adam Dunn can catch
Potential to be the best value- Glaus... if he stays healthy
Best in Five Years- Howard... his production is virtually unprecedented, and he's still young
Up next, Second Base...
Thursday, March 4, 2010
NL East Catching
Ok, I'll admit it... I've been slacking off a bit, and haven't posted since the end of January. What happened in the mean time? Nothing much, aside from a million inches of snow. Approimately.
In any event, Spring Training is in full swing and games are being played, which is far more interesting than potential arbitration cases or a stadium getting a new coporate name.
Between now and the start of the season I want to provide at least a thumbnail for each team, but I want to jump a bit deeper into each aspect of the division I follow most closely, the National League East. I'll rate each player offensively and defensively against others at their position (so a highly rated offensive catcher isn't compared to a highly rated offensive left fielder), with a five being Ted Williams (bat) or Ozzie Smith (glove), and one being Eric Bruntlett (bat) or Dan Uggla (glove). I guess you know what I'll be giving Uggla in the field when I get to second basemen. Oh well. Today I'll start with the division's catchers...
Atlanta Braves- Brian McCann and David Ross (backup)
The Braves boast the best all around catcher in the NL East in Brian McCann, an NL All-Star each of the past four seasons. He is far and away the most productive offensive catcher in the division, and he doesn't kill you defensively, although 12 errors last season are more than you want to see from your catcher. McCann's biggest problem might be that he's too important to the Braves offensively, and therefore has to play too much. Even with that, McCann has showed himself to be very durable, and another season of hitting around .300 while playing 135 games would surprise absolutely no one. Ross is the quintessential journeyman backup catcher, boasting a career batting average of .228, but throwing out 40% of attempted base stealers in his career, which is a good thing in a division where great base stealers live. Ross actually hit .273 with seven home runs and struck out 39 times in 128 at bats in 2009, which suggests that when he played, he was swinging for the fences. McCann turns 26 this year and Ross 33, so a similar performance from last year is anticipated
Offense- McCann- 5, Ross- 1... McCann is probably the best offensive catcher in baseball... Ross isn't
Defense- McCann- 2, Ross- 4... Clean it up back there, Brian... You had 4x as many errors as Carlos Ruiz
Florida Marlins- Josh Baker and Ronny Paulino (backup)
Baker, in his second season in the show, almost doubled his playing time and rewarded Freddy Gonzalez by hitting .271 and providing stability for the Fish behind the plate. The A's fourth round pick in 2002 garnered several mentions in Moneyball, but has turned into a solid pro for the even more cost-conscious Marlins. Baker is a big kid who threw out 20% of attempted base stealers last year, but I think he's better than that at controlling the running game because the Marlins almost always have young pitchers (and power arm Josh Johnson), and young pitchers (and power arms like Josh Johnson) usually stink at holding runners. Baker is a big guy, but if Baker is big, Paulino is fat. He appeared in 80 games in '09, and actually did a good job for a guy that was traded twice in spring training. He threw out 31% of would be base stealers, and didn't embarrass himself at the plate, hitting .272. Paulino is what he is at this point, but I think Baker improves his overall game moderately, but enough to take notice.
Offense- Baker- 2.5 and rising, Paulino- 2.5 and steady... seeing pitchers he knows can only help Baker
Defense- Baker- 2 and rising, Paulino- 2.5 and fat... Baker needs to get better throwing out runners
New York Mets- Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, Omir Santos (backups)
Maybe the Mets carry three catchers. Maybe they don't. The unifying theme for all four of these guys is that they can't play. You can also draw three-way themes of rotund (Barajas, Blanco and Santos) or old (Barajas, Blanco and Coste). Barajas will get the majority of the playing time, and has shown himself to be a below average hitter who will hit 15-20 out of the park. However, I'm skeptical he'll do this in the Mets' cavernous Citi Field. Numbers suggest that he's a decent defensive player, but his refusal to get dirty and take a hit for the Phillies in 2007 in a play at the plate is forever etched in my memory. Having said that, when Barajas doesn't play, the Mets will be drawing absolutely dead in the catcher's spot offensively, although Blanco has a well-earned reputation as a good receiver.
Offense- Barajas- 2, backups- 0.5... Barajas gets a two on power... the rest aren't hitters
Defense- Barajas- 2.5, backups- 3.5... backup score driven completely by Blanco
Philadelphia Phillies- Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider (backup)
Ruiz is a bit of a late-bloomer, having transitioned behind the plate while already in professional ball, and now enters his fourth full season in the bigs. A great handler of pitches in the dirt, Ruiz continues to improve behind the plate and with the bat. He hit .255 with nine home runs and 43 RBI in 2009, and in the lineup he's in, he's the perfect eight-hole hitter. Landing Schneider as the backup is a bit of a coup for the Phillies, as he probably could start for several teams, and he always hurts the Phillies offensively. His value is in his glove, and his defense and even his modest hitting ability are significant upgrades over last year's backup, Paul Bako.
Offense- Ruiz- 2.5, Schneider- 1.5... unless it's the playoffs, in which case Ruiz becomes a 4.5
Defense- Ruiz- 3.5, Schneider- 3.5... Not great at throwing out runners, but stop everything near them
Washington Nationals- Ivan Rodriguez and Jesus Flores (backup)
In a step towards respectability after a 103-loss season that saw the Nats dispatch Manager Manny Acta, Washington signed legendary, if not aging, Pudge Rodriguez to backstop their club. It can be argued that Pudge is the greatest all-around catcher in baseball history, but in 2010 he's hardly at his peak. Despite this being his 20th season in the bigs, Pudge is still only 38 years old and comes off a decent 2009 campaign that saw him catch 115 games. The offensive numbers are down and now reside in the range of a normal catcher, but Pudge's arm is still as good as anyone, and he threw out 35% of base stealers last season. I really like Flores' potential, a catcher the Nats snagged from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2007 season. He has shown a bit of promise with both the glove and the stick, and at 25, has much room to grow into an excellent everyday catcher, particularly if he pays attention to anything he can learn from Rodriguez.
Offense- Rodriguez-2, Flores- 3... If it's five years ago or five years from now, both numbers could be much higher
Defense- Rodriguez- 4.5, Flores-3.5... Pudge's only down mark is his age... Flores could benefit greatly from Rodriguez' presence
NL East Catching Wrap Up
Best Catcher- Brian McCann
Best Team Depth- Phillies
Best Offensively- Brian McCann
Best Defensively- Ivan Rodriguez
Worst Offensively- Any one for the Mets not named Barajas
Worst Defensively- Ronny Paulino
Worst Team Depth- Mets
Best At Blocking Balls in the Dirt- Carlos Ruiz
Best Arm- Ivan Rodriguez
Best Fit on His Team- Carlos Ruiz
Best In Five Years- Jesus Flores
Best Backup- Brian Schneider
Up next... First basemen...
In any event, Spring Training is in full swing and games are being played, which is far more interesting than potential arbitration cases or a stadium getting a new coporate name.
Between now and the start of the season I want to provide at least a thumbnail for each team, but I want to jump a bit deeper into each aspect of the division I follow most closely, the National League East. I'll rate each player offensively and defensively against others at their position (so a highly rated offensive catcher isn't compared to a highly rated offensive left fielder), with a five being Ted Williams (bat) or Ozzie Smith (glove), and one being Eric Bruntlett (bat) or Dan Uggla (glove). I guess you know what I'll be giving Uggla in the field when I get to second basemen. Oh well. Today I'll start with the division's catchers...
Atlanta Braves- Brian McCann and David Ross (backup)
The Braves boast the best all around catcher in the NL East in Brian McCann, an NL All-Star each of the past four seasons. He is far and away the most productive offensive catcher in the division, and he doesn't kill you defensively, although 12 errors last season are more than you want to see from your catcher. McCann's biggest problem might be that he's too important to the Braves offensively, and therefore has to play too much. Even with that, McCann has showed himself to be very durable, and another season of hitting around .300 while playing 135 games would surprise absolutely no one. Ross is the quintessential journeyman backup catcher, boasting a career batting average of .228, but throwing out 40% of attempted base stealers in his career, which is a good thing in a division where great base stealers live. Ross actually hit .273 with seven home runs and struck out 39 times in 128 at bats in 2009, which suggests that when he played, he was swinging for the fences. McCann turns 26 this year and Ross 33, so a similar performance from last year is anticipated
Offense- McCann- 5, Ross- 1... McCann is probably the best offensive catcher in baseball... Ross isn't
Defense- McCann- 2, Ross- 4... Clean it up back there, Brian... You had 4x as many errors as Carlos Ruiz
Florida Marlins- Josh Baker and Ronny Paulino (backup)
Baker, in his second season in the show, almost doubled his playing time and rewarded Freddy Gonzalez by hitting .271 and providing stability for the Fish behind the plate. The A's fourth round pick in 2002 garnered several mentions in Moneyball, but has turned into a solid pro for the even more cost-conscious Marlins. Baker is a big kid who threw out 20% of attempted base stealers last year, but I think he's better than that at controlling the running game because the Marlins almost always have young pitchers (and power arm Josh Johnson), and young pitchers (and power arms like Josh Johnson) usually stink at holding runners. Baker is a big guy, but if Baker is big, Paulino is fat. He appeared in 80 games in '09, and actually did a good job for a guy that was traded twice in spring training. He threw out 31% of would be base stealers, and didn't embarrass himself at the plate, hitting .272. Paulino is what he is at this point, but I think Baker improves his overall game moderately, but enough to take notice.
Offense- Baker- 2.5 and rising, Paulino- 2.5 and steady... seeing pitchers he knows can only help Baker
Defense- Baker- 2 and rising, Paulino- 2.5 and fat... Baker needs to get better throwing out runners
New York Mets- Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, Omir Santos (backups)
Maybe the Mets carry three catchers. Maybe they don't. The unifying theme for all four of these guys is that they can't play. You can also draw three-way themes of rotund (Barajas, Blanco and Santos) or old (Barajas, Blanco and Coste). Barajas will get the majority of the playing time, and has shown himself to be a below average hitter who will hit 15-20 out of the park. However, I'm skeptical he'll do this in the Mets' cavernous Citi Field. Numbers suggest that he's a decent defensive player, but his refusal to get dirty and take a hit for the Phillies in 2007 in a play at the plate is forever etched in my memory. Having said that, when Barajas doesn't play, the Mets will be drawing absolutely dead in the catcher's spot offensively, although Blanco has a well-earned reputation as a good receiver.
Offense- Barajas- 2, backups- 0.5... Barajas gets a two on power... the rest aren't hitters
Defense- Barajas- 2.5, backups- 3.5... backup score driven completely by Blanco
Philadelphia Phillies- Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider (backup)
Ruiz is a bit of a late-bloomer, having transitioned behind the plate while already in professional ball, and now enters his fourth full season in the bigs. A great handler of pitches in the dirt, Ruiz continues to improve behind the plate and with the bat. He hit .255 with nine home runs and 43 RBI in 2009, and in the lineup he's in, he's the perfect eight-hole hitter. Landing Schneider as the backup is a bit of a coup for the Phillies, as he probably could start for several teams, and he always hurts the Phillies offensively. His value is in his glove, and his defense and even his modest hitting ability are significant upgrades over last year's backup, Paul Bako.
Offense- Ruiz- 2.5, Schneider- 1.5... unless it's the playoffs, in which case Ruiz becomes a 4.5
Defense- Ruiz- 3.5, Schneider- 3.5... Not great at throwing out runners, but stop everything near them
Washington Nationals- Ivan Rodriguez and Jesus Flores (backup)
In a step towards respectability after a 103-loss season that saw the Nats dispatch Manager Manny Acta, Washington signed legendary, if not aging, Pudge Rodriguez to backstop their club. It can be argued that Pudge is the greatest all-around catcher in baseball history, but in 2010 he's hardly at his peak. Despite this being his 20th season in the bigs, Pudge is still only 38 years old and comes off a decent 2009 campaign that saw him catch 115 games. The offensive numbers are down and now reside in the range of a normal catcher, but Pudge's arm is still as good as anyone, and he threw out 35% of base stealers last season. I really like Flores' potential, a catcher the Nats snagged from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2007 season. He has shown a bit of promise with both the glove and the stick, and at 25, has much room to grow into an excellent everyday catcher, particularly if he pays attention to anything he can learn from Rodriguez.
Offense- Rodriguez-2, Flores- 3... If it's five years ago or five years from now, both numbers could be much higher
Defense- Rodriguez- 4.5, Flores-3.5... Pudge's only down mark is his age... Flores could benefit greatly from Rodriguez' presence
NL East Catching Wrap Up
Best Catcher- Brian McCann
Best Team Depth- Phillies
Best Offensively- Brian McCann
Best Defensively- Ivan Rodriguez
Worst Offensively- Any one for the Mets not named Barajas
Worst Defensively- Ronny Paulino
Worst Team Depth- Mets
Best At Blocking Balls in the Dirt- Carlos Ruiz
Best Arm- Ivan Rodriguez
Best Fit on His Team- Carlos Ruiz
Best In Five Years- Jesus Flores
Best Backup- Brian Schneider
Up next... First basemen...
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wednesday Notes
- Arbitration numbers have been exchanged, and my favorite is that of Joe Blanton. Blanton filed at $10.25 million for 2010, while the Phillies filed at $7.5 million. Excuse me? Only four pitchers ever have filed arbitration numbers at $10 million or higher. Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano. And now Blanton. Which doesn't belong in that group of five? If I were the Phillies, I wouldn't settle, I'd take it right to arbitration, and my entire argument would consist of saying "Seriously?" and then sitting down.
- Today's Philadelphia Daily News also reports that the Phillies will try out Eric Gagne at some point today. Low risk. If he shows anything, why not?
- Turns out Benjie Molina won't join the Mets, opting instead to return to the Giants. Does Jason Bay catch?
- Joel Piniero remains eminently available and coveted. I don't know why either.
- Ok, I'll lay off Joel now. Enough is enough. How do I really feel? Decent pitcher, ok stuff, needs a good defense behind him and he can be a decent three or a good fourth starter on an NL team. Keeps you in the game, doesn't dominate, but doesn't go out in the second inning either.
- Sounds kinda like Joe Blanton. He of the $10.25 million arbitration request, you may have heard.
- Joe Posnanski's column does an outstanding job of explaining factors beyond steroids that have influenced baseball over the last 15 years or so- and also places the era in a bit of historical context.
- Is it just me, or has the steroid era become far too oversimplified? Much like the political landscape right now (Republicans calling every Democratic program socialist, Democrats blaming every problem in the country on George W. Bush), there is an easy, thoughtless, default answer to any challenge regarding the recent homer-happy era. Steroids. Just like in politics (where there's a big difference between government-assisted and government-run, and George W. hasn't been in office for over a year), the real answers are far more complex and nuanced, and involve varying degrees of incluence from numerous sources. Players such as Carlton Fisk and Jack Clark just sound like angry old-timers, when the reality is that many players of that (and every generation) also would have used steroids had they been involved in that era. Just stop. It's much more refreshing to hear an opinion like Mike Schmidt's, who acknowledges that if he played in that era he would've been tempted to use, and may very well have done so.
- Today's Philadelphia Daily News also reports that the Phillies will try out Eric Gagne at some point today. Low risk. If he shows anything, why not?
- Turns out Benjie Molina won't join the Mets, opting instead to return to the Giants. Does Jason Bay catch?
- Joel Piniero remains eminently available and coveted. I don't know why either.
- Ok, I'll lay off Joel now. Enough is enough. How do I really feel? Decent pitcher, ok stuff, needs a good defense behind him and he can be a decent three or a good fourth starter on an NL team. Keeps you in the game, doesn't dominate, but doesn't go out in the second inning either.
- Sounds kinda like Joe Blanton. He of the $10.25 million arbitration request, you may have heard.
- Joe Posnanski's column does an outstanding job of explaining factors beyond steroids that have influenced baseball over the last 15 years or so- and also places the era in a bit of historical context.
- Is it just me, or has the steroid era become far too oversimplified? Much like the political landscape right now (Republicans calling every Democratic program socialist, Democrats blaming every problem in the country on George W. Bush), there is an easy, thoughtless, default answer to any challenge regarding the recent homer-happy era. Steroids. Just like in politics (where there's a big difference between government-assisted and government-run, and George W. hasn't been in office for over a year), the real answers are far more complex and nuanced, and involve varying degrees of incluence from numerous sources. Players such as Carlton Fisk and Jack Clark just sound like angry old-timers, when the reality is that many players of that (and every generation) also would have used steroids had they been involved in that era. Just stop. It's much more refreshing to hear an opinion like Mike Schmidt's, who acknowledges that if he played in that era he would've been tempted to use, and may very well have done so.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Thoughts and Musings For the First Time in '10
- The Marlins, after receiving a scolding from the MLB and the Players Association, have agreed to increase payroll. They've started by signing Josh Johnson to a four-year deal and avoiding arbitration with Dan Uggla for 2010. My thoughts? I still don't believe either of those players will finish out those contracts in South Florida.
- Did I miss something about Joel Piniero? I'm sure he's a nice guy, but do you really trust a guy who had a great walk year with the Cardinals (and Dave Duncan) to continue that success? Does anyone remember Jeff Weaver and Braden Looper? Admittedly, Piniero is better than those guys, but spring training starts in about a month, and teams are looking at this guy as a rotation fixer? I don't think so. He only had 105 strikeouts in 214.1 innings in 2009, which should scare a team looking to give him a long-term deal.
- Now after my Joel Piniero-is-just-a-guy-rant, watch him go 18-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 220 innings this year. If he ever signs.
- Jose Valverde is an upgrade at the closer spot for Detroit. I'm not sure how much, though, as it just seems like everytime I see Valverde, his appearance turns into a high-wire act. Having said that, he's got better stuff than Fernando Rodney, and will give up fewer base runners. But I'm not sure the Tigers should spend $7 million a year for a closer when they've already lost several players because of payroll considerations. Good closers are hard to find, but if you're never ahead in the ninth, they don't do you much good.
- Tom Verducci's latest theory explores which teams got the most production for their money in the first decade of the 21st century.
- It merited far too little attention, but one of baseball's most dominant forces ever hung it up two weeks back with the retirement of Randy Johnson. The 6-10 lefty was so feared that many a lefthanded hitter coincidentally pulled up lame just before they were scheduled to face Johnson, and some (John Kruk, Larry Walker) publicly out and out refused to face him, only to be embarrassed when they did. Johnson was a 10-time All-Star, won five Cy Youngs and retired second on the all-time strikeout list. His best year may have been the strike-shortened 1995 campaign in which he went 18-2 with a 2.48 ERA and struck out 294 in only 214.1, propelling the Mariners all the way back from a big September deficit to overtake the Angels in a one-game playoff. Johnson pitched in relief a few times throughout his playoff career, taking home World Series MVP honors (along with Curt Schilling) in 2001, when he won game seven in relief. Johnson is the most dominating and intimidating pitcher of this generation, and he stacks up well with any pitcher of any generation. He is a first-ballot Hall of Fame lock when he comes up for election in January 2015.
- Finally, is that really the manager of the Phillies?
- Did I miss something about Joel Piniero? I'm sure he's a nice guy, but do you really trust a guy who had a great walk year with the Cardinals (and Dave Duncan) to continue that success? Does anyone remember Jeff Weaver and Braden Looper? Admittedly, Piniero is better than those guys, but spring training starts in about a month, and teams are looking at this guy as a rotation fixer? I don't think so. He only had 105 strikeouts in 214.1 innings in 2009, which should scare a team looking to give him a long-term deal.
- Now after my Joel Piniero-is-just-a-guy-rant, watch him go 18-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 220 innings this year. If he ever signs.
- Jose Valverde is an upgrade at the closer spot for Detroit. I'm not sure how much, though, as it just seems like everytime I see Valverde, his appearance turns into a high-wire act. Having said that, he's got better stuff than Fernando Rodney, and will give up fewer base runners. But I'm not sure the Tigers should spend $7 million a year for a closer when they've already lost several players because of payroll considerations. Good closers are hard to find, but if you're never ahead in the ninth, they don't do you much good.
- Tom Verducci's latest theory explores which teams got the most production for their money in the first decade of the 21st century.
- It merited far too little attention, but one of baseball's most dominant forces ever hung it up two weeks back with the retirement of Randy Johnson. The 6-10 lefty was so feared that many a lefthanded hitter coincidentally pulled up lame just before they were scheduled to face Johnson, and some (John Kruk, Larry Walker) publicly out and out refused to face him, only to be embarrassed when they did. Johnson was a 10-time All-Star, won five Cy Youngs and retired second on the all-time strikeout list. His best year may have been the strike-shortened 1995 campaign in which he went 18-2 with a 2.48 ERA and struck out 294 in only 214.1, propelling the Mariners all the way back from a big September deficit to overtake the Angels in a one-game playoff. Johnson pitched in relief a few times throughout his playoff career, taking home World Series MVP honors (along with Curt Schilling) in 2001, when he won game seven in relief. Johnson is the most dominating and intimidating pitcher of this generation, and he stacks up well with any pitcher of any generation. He is a first-ballot Hall of Fame lock when he comes up for election in January 2015.
- Finally, is that really the manager of the Phillies?
Thursday, January 14, 2010
M-E-T-S
It's only the middle of January, and the 2010 Mets already have the look of a team coming apart at the seams. Today's revelation that Carlos Beltran had knee surgery against the wishes of the team's management and will not resume baseball related activities for 12 weeks is the cherry on top. For those of you scoring at home, 12 weeks from now is the end of the first week of the regular season, and it appears likely Beltran will miss some significant time at the season's outset.
This cannot bode well for general manager Omar Minaya, who himself spent much of 2009 cooling off upon standing from his very hot seat. The Mets were ravaged by injuries in 2009 and stumbled to a 70-92 record despite a payroll of $149 million, which was exceeded only by the Yankees.
The Mets made some headlines by signing Jason Bay to patrol left field for the next several seasons, and appear to be on the verge of signing Benjie Molina to play behind the plate. The Mets are also reportedly keeping an eye on Carlos Delgado's progress during winter ball for a possible return to the club.
And? The Mets still stink.
Signing Bay was clearly a priority, given the team's utter lack of production from the corner outfield spots in 2009. And signing Molina would help them, because Henry Blanco and Chris Coste behind the dish everyday isn't going to get it done.
But have the Mets improved themselves significantly? Bay is an odd fit for Citi Field (and was perfectly suited for Fenway Park), and Molina will turn 36 in the middle of the '10 season, having already logged almost 1300 big league games behind the plate between the regular season and playoffs. My initial reaction to the signing of Bay is reflective of my thoughts on the team as a whole: "Well that's nice and all, but unless Bay can catch, play first, second, right, pitch the 7th and 8th and start on the mound three days a week, it doesn't really matter, because they're still not going anywhere."
Which brings us back to Minaya. Why aren't the Mets going anywhere? Well, he's been given ample time and certainly ample resources to build a winner in New York, and he hasn't done so yet. His ridiculous signing of Luis Castillo continues to kill the Mets, as the very capable and very wanting to play in New York Orlando Hudson remains just out of reach to the Mets because they can't rid themselves of Castillo's awful contract. Speaking of awful contracts, Minaya bought into the false hope presented by Oliver Perez and re-singed the erratic lefthander to a big contract prior to the '09 season instead of using that money for Derek Lowe. The result is an undependable, erratic pitcher making way too much money, and the secondary consequence of the Perez signing is that prime free agents like John Lackey must be passed over for the likes of Lackey's former teammate, the hard-throwing and ever-rehabbing Kelvim Escobar.
Not all of the Mets' misery is Minaya's fault. He could not have forseen that J.J. Putz would blow up in his face, and the Mets farm system hasn't produced players nearly as good as the public has been told since Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. (Gregg Jefferies, Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher anyone?)
But a lot of the mess does rest squarely with Minaya. His team's most obvious needs are continually ignored, and he's consitently invested and bet on players with shaky injury history, makeup, or both. His team has no killers, no guys that will stand up, grab a bull by the horns and kill it with his bare hands, but he does have plenty of guys that would watch that guy kill a bull only to run out from hiding to dance over the carcass.
And that all falls on Minaya. He's remained the teflon GM forever (he is the baseball genius that traded Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore to get Bartolo Colon to the Expos), but that teflon is about to turn to fly paper if the Mets don't turn it around quick. Carlos Beltran's surgery, and subsequent absence from the lineup to start the season, are not great signs for the Mets or their infamous Mr. Minaya.
This cannot bode well for general manager Omar Minaya, who himself spent much of 2009 cooling off upon standing from his very hot seat. The Mets were ravaged by injuries in 2009 and stumbled to a 70-92 record despite a payroll of $149 million, which was exceeded only by the Yankees.
The Mets made some headlines by signing Jason Bay to patrol left field for the next several seasons, and appear to be on the verge of signing Benjie Molina to play behind the plate. The Mets are also reportedly keeping an eye on Carlos Delgado's progress during winter ball for a possible return to the club.
And? The Mets still stink.
Signing Bay was clearly a priority, given the team's utter lack of production from the corner outfield spots in 2009. And signing Molina would help them, because Henry Blanco and Chris Coste behind the dish everyday isn't going to get it done.
But have the Mets improved themselves significantly? Bay is an odd fit for Citi Field (and was perfectly suited for Fenway Park), and Molina will turn 36 in the middle of the '10 season, having already logged almost 1300 big league games behind the plate between the regular season and playoffs. My initial reaction to the signing of Bay is reflective of my thoughts on the team as a whole: "Well that's nice and all, but unless Bay can catch, play first, second, right, pitch the 7th and 8th and start on the mound three days a week, it doesn't really matter, because they're still not going anywhere."
Which brings us back to Minaya. Why aren't the Mets going anywhere? Well, he's been given ample time and certainly ample resources to build a winner in New York, and he hasn't done so yet. His ridiculous signing of Luis Castillo continues to kill the Mets, as the very capable and very wanting to play in New York Orlando Hudson remains just out of reach to the Mets because they can't rid themselves of Castillo's awful contract. Speaking of awful contracts, Minaya bought into the false hope presented by Oliver Perez and re-singed the erratic lefthander to a big contract prior to the '09 season instead of using that money for Derek Lowe. The result is an undependable, erratic pitcher making way too much money, and the secondary consequence of the Perez signing is that prime free agents like John Lackey must be passed over for the likes of Lackey's former teammate, the hard-throwing and ever-rehabbing Kelvim Escobar.
Not all of the Mets' misery is Minaya's fault. He could not have forseen that J.J. Putz would blow up in his face, and the Mets farm system hasn't produced players nearly as good as the public has been told since Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. (Gregg Jefferies, Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher anyone?)
But a lot of the mess does rest squarely with Minaya. His team's most obvious needs are continually ignored, and he's consitently invested and bet on players with shaky injury history, makeup, or both. His team has no killers, no guys that will stand up, grab a bull by the horns and kill it with his bare hands, but he does have plenty of guys that would watch that guy kill a bull only to run out from hiding to dance over the carcass.
And that all falls on Minaya. He's remained the teflon GM forever (he is the baseball genius that traded Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore to get Bartolo Colon to the Expos), but that teflon is about to turn to fly paper if the Mets don't turn it around quick. Carlos Beltran's surgery, and subsequent absence from the lineup to start the season, are not great signs for the Mets or their infamous Mr. Minaya.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Big Mac Comes Clean... So What's Your Problem?
As predicted by many, including myself in this space, on Monday Mark McGwire finally did come clean about his use of steroids and HGH throughout his professional baseball career. McGwire initially issued a statement to the AP on Monday afternoon, then sat down for an hour-long interview with Bob Costas that was broadcast live on the MLB Network later in the evening.
If you listen long enough to discourse about any public figure who has committed a major transgression, you will hear that America is a "forgiving country" or some variation on this theme. So why in the world are so many people so upset that McGwire's confession and apology are not enough?
Very few talking heads are giving the Big Red One a whole lot of credit for the steps he took yesterday, with Joe Posnanski being one notable exception. Why is that?
Mark McGwire is clearly a very shy and private person. He was never especially outgoing with the media and public as a player, and while many castigate him for disappearing after the infamous March 2005 Congressional hearings, let's not forget he had disappeared for the three and a half years after he retired and before he was summoned to Capitol Hill too.
McGwire became the first player out of hundreds or thousands who used steroids during the * era to do what he did, which was admit it, apologize for it and do so on live television, unrehearsed. Ken Caminiti was quoted in a magazine. Andy Pettitte, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez made no such admissions until they were caught. We all may have had suspicions about McGwire, we may have "known," but we did not know until yesterday. And we found out not because his chemist's office was raided or because his trainer got busted. We found out because he told us.
I watched McGwire's entire interview with Bob Costas, my wife even bringing dinner to me on the couch so I could remain and watch. In that hour, I saw a contrite man, one who was visibly broken on live national television because of sorrow and regret about decisions he had made years prior. I saw a man who took the extraordinary step of calling Roger Maris' widow to apologize for what he'd done, and wore the burden of a man who knew he had disappointed and let down millions.
So why are many media types, and fans at large, treating him like he's trying one of the diversionary tactics we've seen from many other accused, be it outright lying, denial of what you were taking or 'knowing usage', or my personal favorite, forgetting how to speak a language you are known to be fluent in. McGwire did none of this. He took sole responsibility for what he did, casting no blaming arrows or pointed fingers at anyone but himself.
There were parts of the interview that didn't track. He said he didn't want to look like Arnold Schwarzenegger or Lou Ferrigno, but we all kind of thought he did in the '90s. He said no one knew about his use until Monday morning, but also said that Rep. Tom Davis, Chairman of the Congressional Committee McGwire had testitifed in front of, did in fact know that McGwire used and wanted to testify as such. McGwire appeared nervous, as seen in his several mistakes in syntax and conjugation. But this was live TV, a real apology, and there was no script.
I think part of the reason (maybe the main reason) that he's under fire today is because he would not say that the drugs had enhanced his performance. And you know what? He probably believes that. To be an athlete at that level, to be at the very top of the heap among the very best players in the world carries with it a certain degree of self-confidence that must border on arrogance, if not plunge right in. Find me one elite athlete who doesn't think like that. Michael Jordan? Tiger Woods? I don't think so. The mindset is part of what makes them great. If McGwire believes he would have been as great as he was without the drugs, and he said otherwise, doesn't that make him a fraud? Would we rather have a phony that sounds like we want him to than someone who is sincere and truthful? I wouldn't.
The other element that bothers me about media and fans alike complaining about McGwire's apology is that we are all complicit in this wrong, and we all participated in it. Did Tom Verducci, Ken Rosenthal or Tim Kurkjian or a host of others in the media think something was going on in the game back in 1998? Yes they did. And what did they do about it? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Not a thing. So for them to have the audacity to sit on TV and criticize McGwire for how he apologed is absurd. The baseball media have no moral high ground to criticize McGwire for using steroids when they were complicit in it, and they certainly have no high ground to criticize his apology. When is the media going to apologize for laughing at jokes about syringes and expanding hat sizes back acne? When is the media going to take responsibility for what it didn't do and pay the price for it, the same way McGwire and others have?
And who else is just as guilty and stained by this era? You and I are. I remember being in high school on September 8th, 1998, watching the Cardinals- Cubs game in my family room as McGwire drove a Steve Trachsel pitch over the left field fence for his 62nd home run. A Phillies fan, I didn't care at all who won the game, but as the ball cleared the fence at Busch Stadium, I leapt up from the couch jubilantly at the sight of baseball history. Even as a teenager I had suspiscions about McGwire and Sosa, and several others throughout baseball. And you know what. I didn't care. The events were too big, the games were too fun, and hey, how could I really know for sure.
If you were a baseball fan in 1998 and you say you didn't have similar feelings to mine, there's a word for that: lying. You loved the home run race, you thought something might be off, and you didn't care. No one did.
And so as Mark McGwire, the one time *home run champ and real-life embodiment of Paul Bunyan, wept for a national audience, I felt a little bit of his pain. Because I knew I helped contribute, even if only very, very slightly, to putting him in that seat on that night.
And you did too.
Don't you dare criticize the apology for a wrong you helped commit.
If you listen long enough to discourse about any public figure who has committed a major transgression, you will hear that America is a "forgiving country" or some variation on this theme. So why in the world are so many people so upset that McGwire's confession and apology are not enough?
Very few talking heads are giving the Big Red One a whole lot of credit for the steps he took yesterday, with Joe Posnanski being one notable exception. Why is that?
Mark McGwire is clearly a very shy and private person. He was never especially outgoing with the media and public as a player, and while many castigate him for disappearing after the infamous March 2005 Congressional hearings, let's not forget he had disappeared for the three and a half years after he retired and before he was summoned to Capitol Hill too.
McGwire became the first player out of hundreds or thousands who used steroids during the * era to do what he did, which was admit it, apologize for it and do so on live television, unrehearsed. Ken Caminiti was quoted in a magazine. Andy Pettitte, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez made no such admissions until they were caught. We all may have had suspicions about McGwire, we may have "known," but we did not know until yesterday. And we found out not because his chemist's office was raided or because his trainer got busted. We found out because he told us.
I watched McGwire's entire interview with Bob Costas, my wife even bringing dinner to me on the couch so I could remain and watch. In that hour, I saw a contrite man, one who was visibly broken on live national television because of sorrow and regret about decisions he had made years prior. I saw a man who took the extraordinary step of calling Roger Maris' widow to apologize for what he'd done, and wore the burden of a man who knew he had disappointed and let down millions.
So why are many media types, and fans at large, treating him like he's trying one of the diversionary tactics we've seen from many other accused, be it outright lying, denial of what you were taking or 'knowing usage', or my personal favorite, forgetting how to speak a language you are known to be fluent in. McGwire did none of this. He took sole responsibility for what he did, casting no blaming arrows or pointed fingers at anyone but himself.
There were parts of the interview that didn't track. He said he didn't want to look like Arnold Schwarzenegger or Lou Ferrigno, but we all kind of thought he did in the '90s. He said no one knew about his use until Monday morning, but also said that Rep. Tom Davis, Chairman of the Congressional Committee McGwire had testitifed in front of, did in fact know that McGwire used and wanted to testify as such. McGwire appeared nervous, as seen in his several mistakes in syntax and conjugation. But this was live TV, a real apology, and there was no script.
I think part of the reason (maybe the main reason) that he's under fire today is because he would not say that the drugs had enhanced his performance. And you know what? He probably believes that. To be an athlete at that level, to be at the very top of the heap among the very best players in the world carries with it a certain degree of self-confidence that must border on arrogance, if not plunge right in. Find me one elite athlete who doesn't think like that. Michael Jordan? Tiger Woods? I don't think so. The mindset is part of what makes them great. If McGwire believes he would have been as great as he was without the drugs, and he said otherwise, doesn't that make him a fraud? Would we rather have a phony that sounds like we want him to than someone who is sincere and truthful? I wouldn't.
The other element that bothers me about media and fans alike complaining about McGwire's apology is that we are all complicit in this wrong, and we all participated in it. Did Tom Verducci, Ken Rosenthal or Tim Kurkjian or a host of others in the media think something was going on in the game back in 1998? Yes they did. And what did they do about it? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Not a thing. So for them to have the audacity to sit on TV and criticize McGwire for how he apologed is absurd. The baseball media have no moral high ground to criticize McGwire for using steroids when they were complicit in it, and they certainly have no high ground to criticize his apology. When is the media going to apologize for laughing at jokes about syringes and expanding hat sizes back acne? When is the media going to take responsibility for what it didn't do and pay the price for it, the same way McGwire and others have?
And who else is just as guilty and stained by this era? You and I are. I remember being in high school on September 8th, 1998, watching the Cardinals- Cubs game in my family room as McGwire drove a Steve Trachsel pitch over the left field fence for his 62nd home run. A Phillies fan, I didn't care at all who won the game, but as the ball cleared the fence at Busch Stadium, I leapt up from the couch jubilantly at the sight of baseball history. Even as a teenager I had suspiscions about McGwire and Sosa, and several others throughout baseball. And you know what. I didn't care. The events were too big, the games were too fun, and hey, how could I really know for sure.
If you were a baseball fan in 1998 and you say you didn't have similar feelings to mine, there's a word for that: lying. You loved the home run race, you thought something might be off, and you didn't care. No one did.
And so as Mark McGwire, the one time *home run champ and real-life embodiment of Paul Bunyan, wept for a national audience, I felt a little bit of his pain. Because I knew I helped contribute, even if only very, very slightly, to putting him in that seat on that night.
And you did too.
Don't you dare criticize the apology for a wrong you helped commit.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
The Hall Calls Hawk
Ok, I lied about the Phillies... But I will get to that soon. The BBWAA announced the results of its annual Hall of Fame voting this afternoon, with Andre Dawson the only candidate earning the requisite 75% of the votes required for induction in 2010.
If you read my earlier Hall of Fame post, you'll find that I voted for five men in a mock election through the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, none of whom is Andre Dawson.
By all accounts, 'The Hawk' is a good man, and certainly a worthy candidate for the Hall. He did not make my ballot, but he didn't make a lot of other either. And I'm certainly not bitter about Dawson being elected, even though I didn't support his candidacy.
What I do hope, though, is that Dawson's election gives us a bit of perspective on players who played in the 1980's and early 90's whose numbers don't like quite as good next to the offensive explosion of the late 90's and 2000's. Barry Larkin and Tim Raines, I'm talking about you, and to a lesser extent, Dale Murphy.
In any event, congrats to Andre Dawson as the lone player elected to the Hall of Fame in 2010 by the BBWAA.
If you read my earlier Hall of Fame post, you'll find that I voted for five men in a mock election through the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, none of whom is Andre Dawson.
By all accounts, 'The Hawk' is a good man, and certainly a worthy candidate for the Hall. He did not make my ballot, but he didn't make a lot of other either. And I'm certainly not bitter about Dawson being elected, even though I didn't support his candidacy.
What I do hope, though, is that Dawson's election gives us a bit of perspective on players who played in the 1980's and early 90's whose numbers don't like quite as good next to the offensive explosion of the late 90's and 2000's. Barry Larkin and Tim Raines, I'm talking about you, and to a lesser extent, Dale Murphy.
In any event, congrats to Andre Dawson as the lone player elected to the Hall of Fame in 2010 by the BBWAA.
Monday, January 4, 2010
The 2010 Phillies: Roy Halladay in; Cliff Lee Out
For my first post in the new year, I thought it would make sense to look at what the entity that will occupy more of my baseball time than any other, the Philadelphia Phillies, will look like in 2010. They've had an eventful offseason thus far to be sure. But is that a good thing?
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. took the reigns from Pat Gillick right after the 2008 season. Gillick is a longtime baseball man who was known to grow complacent with his teams, especially in-season, and thus earned the moniker 'Stand Pat.' This is one nickname that is unlikely to ever stick to Amaro.
Coming off a World Series title in 2008, Amaro let the longest tenured Phillie in Pat Burrell, the man who led the parade down Broad Street, walk away in free agency, opting for an older and lefthanded hitting Raul Ibanez. While some derided the move at the time, 2009 clearly showed Amaro to be in the right, getting much more production from Ibanez than Burrell gave Tampa Bay for roughly the equivalent salary of what Burrell would have commanded in Philadelphia.
While Burrell might have been a popular player with the Phillies, he was nowhere near as important to the team's success as Cliff Lee was in 2009. Lee was dominant in all three rounds of the playoffs, and won both of the Phillies triumphs in the World Series against the Yankees. So what did Amaro do? He traded his best pitcher away and brought in what is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball.
And I loved it. I loved it for no other reason than it took tremendous onions for Ruben Amaro to pull off a deal like this one. Maybe even a double order, if you'll engage my inner Bill Raftery. I loved it because Amaro saw a chance to make his already good team even better for the next four years. And I loved that it put the Phillies in the headlines in December, long after most of the ink on the 2009 season had been dried.
There was much consternation in the land at the Phillies losing Lee, and I understand that. There are a few factors at play here. First, Lee was the last thing any of us saw, so naturally a lot of people will associate that performance with Lee and grow a sentamentality to him. Secondly, the ace swap was actually two separate deals, with the Phillies giving up prospects to get Halladay and then trading Lee to get reasonably close prospects back. Many in the area squawked that the Phils should have kept Lee and Halladay, budget or not. At $140 million, the payroll is what it is. Those who tell you just hold onto Lee say 'well it's only $150 million then.' Ok, so then it's only $160 million, $185 million, or a government bailout of Wall Street. It's also pretty easy to say when its not your $140 million.
The other payroll point I've made to fans is this... do you like Ryan Howard? Shane Victorino? Jayson Werth? Cole Hamels? Well, they're not going to be here if all of your money is tied up in two pitchers.
Assuming the team could not financially afford to keep both pitchers long term, trading for Halladay and signing him for three more years is better than having Lee for one, and then watching helplessley as the Yankees throw the GDP of Luxembourg at him and he signs there as a free agent. I don't want to hear about getting draft picks to replace the lost prospects either. Hamels was drafted in 2002 and debuted in 2006. Utley was drafted in 2000 and became a full-time starter in '05. That doesn't help a team ready to win now and for the next 2-4 years.
Beyond all of these considerations, there is this... Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee. Period. End of story. For his career, Doc Halladay has a better ERA, winning percentage, ERA+, WHIP, and H/9 IP than Lee. Halladay has led the league in innings three times, and led in complete games five times. Lee's only significant league-leading statistic was ERA in his Cy Young winning 2008 season. Halladay has a Cy Young, too.
And don't forget, Halladay's numbers have been compiled pitching in the American League East, where in his career, Halladay has made the most starts against (in order) the Red Sox (41), the Yankees (37) and Rays (34). Lee's most common opponenets are the Royals (22), White Sox (21), and Tigers (20). Halladay's most frequent opponents represented the AL in the World Series seven times this decade, with Lee's representing the AL twice. (The only holdout being the 2002 Angels).
I'm not trying to disparage Cliff Lee. Not at all. He was phenomenal for the Phillies, and was a huge piece of them winning their second straight pennant for the first time ever. But let's be furrealfurreal (said "for real for real") for a second. Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee.
And because of that, the 2010 Phillies are set up to be better than the 2009 edition.
Coming up in my next post, I will examine the rest of the Phils' moves so far this offseason...
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. took the reigns from Pat Gillick right after the 2008 season. Gillick is a longtime baseball man who was known to grow complacent with his teams, especially in-season, and thus earned the moniker 'Stand Pat.' This is one nickname that is unlikely to ever stick to Amaro.
Coming off a World Series title in 2008, Amaro let the longest tenured Phillie in Pat Burrell, the man who led the parade down Broad Street, walk away in free agency, opting for an older and lefthanded hitting Raul Ibanez. While some derided the move at the time, 2009 clearly showed Amaro to be in the right, getting much more production from Ibanez than Burrell gave Tampa Bay for roughly the equivalent salary of what Burrell would have commanded in Philadelphia.
While Burrell might have been a popular player with the Phillies, he was nowhere near as important to the team's success as Cliff Lee was in 2009. Lee was dominant in all three rounds of the playoffs, and won both of the Phillies triumphs in the World Series against the Yankees. So what did Amaro do? He traded his best pitcher away and brought in what is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball.
And I loved it. I loved it for no other reason than it took tremendous onions for Ruben Amaro to pull off a deal like this one. Maybe even a double order, if you'll engage my inner Bill Raftery. I loved it because Amaro saw a chance to make his already good team even better for the next four years. And I loved that it put the Phillies in the headlines in December, long after most of the ink on the 2009 season had been dried.
There was much consternation in the land at the Phillies losing Lee, and I understand that. There are a few factors at play here. First, Lee was the last thing any of us saw, so naturally a lot of people will associate that performance with Lee and grow a sentamentality to him. Secondly, the ace swap was actually two separate deals, with the Phillies giving up prospects to get Halladay and then trading Lee to get reasonably close prospects back. Many in the area squawked that the Phils should have kept Lee and Halladay, budget or not. At $140 million, the payroll is what it is. Those who tell you just hold onto Lee say 'well it's only $150 million then.' Ok, so then it's only $160 million, $185 million, or a government bailout of Wall Street. It's also pretty easy to say when its not your $140 million.
The other payroll point I've made to fans is this... do you like Ryan Howard? Shane Victorino? Jayson Werth? Cole Hamels? Well, they're not going to be here if all of your money is tied up in two pitchers.
Assuming the team could not financially afford to keep both pitchers long term, trading for Halladay and signing him for three more years is better than having Lee for one, and then watching helplessley as the Yankees throw the GDP of Luxembourg at him and he signs there as a free agent. I don't want to hear about getting draft picks to replace the lost prospects either. Hamels was drafted in 2002 and debuted in 2006. Utley was drafted in 2000 and became a full-time starter in '05. That doesn't help a team ready to win now and for the next 2-4 years.
Beyond all of these considerations, there is this... Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee. Period. End of story. For his career, Doc Halladay has a better ERA, winning percentage, ERA+, WHIP, and H/9 IP than Lee. Halladay has led the league in innings three times, and led in complete games five times. Lee's only significant league-leading statistic was ERA in his Cy Young winning 2008 season. Halladay has a Cy Young, too.
And don't forget, Halladay's numbers have been compiled pitching in the American League East, where in his career, Halladay has made the most starts against (in order) the Red Sox (41), the Yankees (37) and Rays (34). Lee's most common opponenets are the Royals (22), White Sox (21), and Tigers (20). Halladay's most frequent opponents represented the AL in the World Series seven times this decade, with Lee's representing the AL twice. (The only holdout being the 2002 Angels).
I'm not trying to disparage Cliff Lee. Not at all. He was phenomenal for the Phillies, and was a huge piece of them winning their second straight pennant for the first time ever. But let's be furrealfurreal (said "for real for real") for a second. Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee.
And because of that, the 2010 Phillies are set up to be better than the 2009 edition.
Coming up in my next post, I will examine the rest of the Phils' moves so far this offseason...
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